GO EAST!

 Gazprom, Russia's state gas provider, has been told to speed up exploration activities in the far east of the Federation.

Chief executive Alexey Miller told a high-level meeting that the Eastern Gas Programme, covering Siberia, needed to pick up speed.

The Sakhalin, Yakutia and Irkutsk gas production centers were all identified as locations for renewed effort.

In a statement on the Gazprom website, it was noted that in those regions the company had sufficient reserves to secure long-term gas supplies "for both Russian and foreign consumers".

The commercial reserves of the Eastern Gas Programme (EGP) at estimated at 5.2 trillion cubic meters (tcm).

In 2007 the Russian government approved the state-run Development Program for an integrated gas production, transportation and supply system in Eastern Siberia and the Far East, the EGP. China and other Asian-Pacific countries were seen as potential markets. Just this week Beijing and Gazprom signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on gas supplies via the eastern route.

(Natural Gas Europe)

THE STREAM OF COSTS.

Russian gas giant OAO Gazprom said it would invest 509.6 billion Russian rubles ($16.89 billion) expanding its pipelines to take gas to southeastern Europe via the South Stream link, piling further costs onto a project aimed at bypassing traditional transit countries Ukraine and Belarus.

The investment in Russia's domestic pipeline network, revealed Tuesday in a document posted on Gazprom's website, will bring the total cost of the South Stream project—aimed at shipping 63 billion cubic meters of gas under the Black Sea by 2018—to $38.4 billion. The offshore and European sections of the pipeline are forecast to cost €16 billion ($21.53 billion).

Russia is building the South Stream pipeline to diversify supply routes to the European Union after disputes with Ukraine led to cutoffs in 2006 and 2009. Russian gas covers about a quarter of Europe's needs.

Analysts have long criticized Gazprom for perceived overspending on pipeline projects. Some analysts question the need for South Stream, given flagging demand for Russian gas in its most lucrative market in Europe.

"It looks expensive and unprofitable, as in the future Gazprom will have to pay for gas transit under 'supply or pay' terms, and it may not fully supply the pipeline," said Raiffeisen Bank analyst Andrey Polishchuk. "It's a risky project. The only reasons to build it are political, to decrease the risks related to transit through Ukraine."

Gazprom and its South Stream partners Électricité de France SA, BASF-Wintershall and Italy's ENI SpA launched construction of the offshore section of the pipeline in December.

(WallStreetJournal)

THERE MUST BE GAS. (Ci deve essere gas)

Poland’s hopes of hitting a shale gas bonanza have suffered a blow as ExxonMobil ended exploration for the unconventional fuel after tests failed to find gas in commercial quantities.

The US oil major said there had been “no demonstrated sustained commercial hydrocarbon flow rates” in two test wells in eastern Poland and added that it had “completed its exploration operations in Poland”.

ExxonMobil has six concessions in Poland and it remains unclear what plans the company has for them.

The decision by ExxonMobil is the latest in a series of disappointments over Poland’s possible gas reserves.

Energy companies and the government were enticed by an estimate last year from the US Energy Information Administration, which said Poland might hold 5.3tn cubic metres of shale gas – the largest reserves in Europe.

However, a newer estimate by Poland’s government geological institute cut about 90 per cent off that, suggesting reserves of 346-768bn cubic metres.

Although the lower number is unlikely to turn Poland into a gas exporter, it would make it much less dependent on gas imports from Russia, which currently supplies about two-thirds of the 14bn cubic metres of gas the country consumes annually.

Waldemar Pawlak, Poland’s economy minister, suggested that ExxonMobil became less interested in its Polish operations after agreeing last week to develop tight oil reserves in Siberia together with Rosneft, the Russian state oil group.

“With such prospects, shale gas in Poland did not have as much meaning for [ExxonMobil],” said Mr Pawlak.

In 2009, ExxonMobil abandoned shale gas exploration in Hungary after a disappointing result from a test well.

The Polish government has handed out 109 shale gas exploration concessions around the country, and the other companies still looking for the fuel – a process that involves pumping fluids at high pressure deep underground to fracture rock, releasing trapped oil and gas – are still optimistic about Poland’s possible deposits.

Companies active in Poland include Chevron, ConocoPhilips and Poland’s PGNiG, the former gas monopoly, as well as a host of smaller groups specialised in shale gas exploration.

“I’m a bit perplexed as to why anyone would drill just two wells and then leave,” said John Buggenhagen, exploration director for Aim-quoted San Leon Energy, which has concessions near the Baltic coast, as well as in the west and south of the country.

“We believe it will take dozens of wells to explore just a small area. San Leon believes Poland has huge potential.”

One of the earliest tests came from 3Legs Resources, the UK-based independent that was the first operator to drill and test two shale wells near the Baltic coast where it found “encouraging” quantities of gas, although the flow rates were less than expected.

Mikolaj Budzanowski, the treasury minister, estimates that the first commercial shale gas extraction should begin in 2014-2015, with about 0.5 to 1bn cubic metres coming to market initially, with production eventually ramping up to 5bn-10bn cubic metres a year.

Poland has been one of the most enthusiastic backers of shale gas in the European Union, while other countries such as France, Romania and Bulgaria have instituted moratoriums on shale exploration for environmental reasons.

(FinancialTimes)

"BOYKOS COME AND GO". (I Boyko vanno e vengono)

Russia has reiterated its determination to construct the Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline and reduce the price tag of the project, following Bulgaria's withdrawal.

This was confirmed by Trans-Balkan Pipeline consortium advisory board member Mikhail Barkov, as cited by RIA Oreanda-News.

Russia will insist on executing the Burgas-Alexandroupolis project given minimization of costs on it, Barkov said.

The agreement to build the oil pipeline was signed in 2008, but at the end of 2011 Bulgaria revealed it is giving up on the project, and paid the Russian and Greek sides the needed dues.

In the interview, Barkov stated that the Burgas-Alexandroupolis pipeline, which will diversify ways to bring oil from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, will outlive political passions.
Referring to Bulgaria's Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, Barkov recently famously said that "Boykos come and go, but Bulgarians' love for Russia is for ever."

The Bulgarian government said in December last year that it will leave the project, which involved building a pipeline through Bulgaria and Greece to transport Russian oil from the Black Sea to the Aegean, bypassing the Bosphorus.

The government said it is quitting the project as not economically efficient, after months of sending negative signals as to its commitment to it.

Bulgaria's Finance Minister Simeon Djankov has expressed confidence that the withdrawal will not force the country to pay anything more than its EUR 6 M outstanding dues on the project, which accrued during its advance financing. The sum was transferred at the beginning of February 2012.

Russia has insisted on preserving the existence of a company to manage the project in the long term.

At the present moment, Bulgaria's position calls for a cancellation of the intergovernmental agreement to build the pipeline, while Greece supports the Russian stance.
(TurkishWeely)

INTERNAL MARKET FIRST. (Prima il mercato interno)

Gazprom said on Saturday it could not pump additional gas to Western Europe amid a cold snap, after EU officials and energy firms said the Russian giant's deliveries had dropped in several states.

"Gazprom at the moment cannot satisfy the additional volumes that our Western European partners are requesting," the company's deputy chairman Alexander Kruglov said at a meeting with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, according to Russian news agencies.

Putin told Gazprom at the meeting that the demands of Europe had to be respected but the firm's priority was to supply consumers in Russia, which is also enduring a spell of very cold weather.

"I ask you to make efforts to meet the demands of our foreign partners, bearing in mind that the prime task of Russian energy firms and Gazprom in particular is to satisfy the internal demand in Russia," said Putin.

"This is the priority task."

Kruglov said that Gazprom was carrying out deliveries in line with its agreements with European states but that it was unable to pump additional gas that had been requested.

He said there had been a reduction of 10 percent in gas volumes delivered on previous days but that now deliveries had returned to their normal levels.

The European Commission said Friday that Austria, Bulgaria, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania and Slovakia had each registered drops in gas supplies.

But a spokeswoman for EU energy commissioner Guenther Oettinger, Marlene Holzer, had said that Gazprom contractual small print with European buyers "allows for a certain flexibility."

German energy giant RWE said it was currently receiving 30 percent less gas from Russia than is foreseen in contracts.

"Supply for clients is however assured, notably due to well filled stocks," a spokesman said, adding there would be no problem in the days to come.

Its main rival E.ON, which obtains 27 percent of its gas annually from Gazprom, said it was "well-armed against reductions in supply from Gazprom", even if demand was high for a long period, due to high stock levels.

Russian gas amounted to 33 percent of Germany's supplies in 2010, its main source of gas imports ahead of Norway with 29 percent.

The economy ministry of the Netherlands meanwhile said the country produced sufficient gas itself and had sufficient reserves "to face all the needs".

"We have other possibilities of supply," said spokeswoman Esther Benschop, saying the country had "great flexibility" in gas.

Austria on Friday had logged a 30 percent fall in Russian deliveries and Italy had seen deliveries fall by 24 percent. Deliveries to Italy's gas network Snam Rete Gas were down 28.9 percent on Friday.
(JakartaGlobe)

RUSSIA-UKRAINE = 1-0

Entrerà in funzione oggi, martedì 8 novembre, North Stream, la pipeline che porterà il gas russo in Germania attraverso il Baltico. Dmitrij Medvedev e Angela Merkel hanno “accolto” quel gas in Germania, a Lubmin, girando il rubinetto che gli ha aperto la rete europea. Alla cerimonia hanno preso parte anche il primo ministro francese, François Fillon, il collega olandese Mark Rutte e il commissario europeo all’Energia, Gunther Oettinger: Francia e Olanda sono gli altri due Paesi che aderiscono al consorzio, diviso tra Gazprom, le tedesche Wintershall e E.On Ruhrgas, l’olandese Gasunie e la francese Gdf Suez.

“I consumatori europei potranno avere fino a 55 miliardi di metri cubi di gas dalla Russia nei prossimi anni con il lancio della seconda condotta del North Stream – ha affermato Medvedev in una conferenza stampa congiunta con la Merkel a Berlino – il gas naturale russo e l’elettricità prodotta con essa garantiranno una fornitura energetica stabile ai consumatori del continente e aumenteranno la loro sicurezza energetica”. Il primo tratto pomperà 27,5 miliardi di metri di cubi di gas all’anno, circa la metà di quella che sarà la capacità definitiva della struttura. North Stream parte da Vyborg, nei pressi di San Pietroburgo, e termina a Lubmin, in Germania.

North Stream è lungo 1.224 chilometri e ha ora una capacità di trasporto di 27,5 miliardi di metri cubi all’anno, che diventeranno 55 con la costruzione di una seconda linea, attesa per l’autunno 2012. Il monopolio russo Gazprom ha già siglato contratti di fornitura a lungo termine con diversi Paesi europei, inclusa la Germania, la Danimarca, il Belgio, l’Olanda, la Francia e la Gran Bretagna. In attesa che South Stream colleghi invece la Russia all’Europa meridionale, sempre con l’obiettivo di ridurre i volumi del gas russo – finora l’80% – esportato in Europa attraverso l’Ucraina.
(East Journal)

TYMOSHENKO, THE BIG BLUFF. (Tymoshenko, il grande bluff)

Far fuori gli avversari politici mettendoli dietro le sbarre non è certo il metodo migliore per gestire il potere ottenuto in maniera democratica. Eppure è quello che sta succedendo in Ucraina con il caso di Yulia Tymoshenko, ex primo ministro e leader dell’opposizione che è stata condannata a sette anni di galera per abuso di potere.

Al presidente Victor Yanukovich la dura sentenza serve anche per ottenere una piattaforma giuridica per tentare di ottenere la revisione dei contratti del 2009, obiettivamente svantaggiosi per il paese. Si spiega in questa maniera la reazione russa, con il Cremlino che sia durante il procedimento sia alla sua conclusione si è schierato a favore dell’imputata, sottolineando la validità degli accordi raggiunti tra l’eroina della rivoluzione arancione e Vladimir Putin due anni fa.
I rapporti tra Kiev e Mosca sono sempre passati attraverso le pipelines: è l’oro blu a unire o dividere, a seconda dei momenti. E i protagonisti di queste storie sono sempre gli stessi. In Ucraina Yulia Tymoshenko, ex principessa del gas che con il suo gruppo ha gestito per anni il traffico con la Russia e che prima è passata al ministero dell’Energia poi alla seggiola di premier; Dmitri Firtash, oligarca impegnato nell’energia e non solo, nemico giurato della bionda pasionaria; Yuri Boiko, attuale ministro dell’Energia, ex ceo a Naftogaz e uno dei suggeritori di Yanukovich, da anni schierato con l’ala conservatrice uscita dal blocco dell’ex presidente Leonid Kuchma cui appartengono gli altri magnati dell’industria ucraina, guidati da Rinat Akhmetov.

In Russia chi controlla Gazprom, cioè il Cremlino, è il vero gestore delle relazioni che toccano economia e politica: Putin impera. E se l’ormai scomparso Victor Chernomyrdin dopo essere stato per anni il numero uno di Gazprom era stato mandato a fare l’ambasciatore in Ucraina lo scorso decennio il motivo era chiaro. Politica e gas: gli intrecci al Cremlino sono come quelli alla Bankova e interpretarli non è sempre cosa semplice: ma è chiaro che il processo Tymoshenko si inserisce nel canovaccio dei duelli per il potere.
L’Europa in questa contesa fa da spettatrice: non ha danari per intraprendere un progetto consistente per la ristrutturazione del gas ucraino e rischia di lasciare via libera alla Russia che, avviato Nordstream, ha ora Southstream in progetto. Il sistema di trasporto ucraino va modernizzato e Gazprom vuole metterci sopra le mani, sul modello bielorusso (lo stesso dicasi per Naftogaz). Bruxelles si allarma per la Tymoshenko, ma non può permettersi di abbandonare i negoziati sull’accordo di associazione che dovrebbe essere firmato entro l’anno con Kiev.
L’errore europeo è stato quello di non capire che la rivoluzione del 2004 era un bluff. Gli ucraini l’anno capito da tempo, basta andare a guardarsi i sondaggi sul gradimento della Lady di ferro, peggiori di quelli di Yanukovich. Ora rischia di essere troppo tardi.
(Limes)

RUSSIA AND THE KOREAN - GAS - UNITY. (La Russia e l'unità coreana ... del gas)

South Korean and Russian press are reporting on talks between officials from Russia and South and North Korea on construction of a gas pipeline along the Korean Peninsula.

South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan, just back from a visit to Moscow, said on August 12 that Gazprom and the Russian Foreign Ministry are in contact with North Korean officials about the possibility of building a pipeline from Russia to South Korea via North Korea.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has been quoted as saying North Korea was "positive" about the idea.

Gazprom and South Korean company KOGAS signed an agreement for Russian gas in 2008, but
that deal envisioned Russia shipping liquefied natural gas from Sakhalin Island.
(Rferl)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

North Korea says it has received a message from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev seeking cooperation on the construction of a gas pipeline from Russia, through North Korea to South Korea.

Pyongyang’s official KCNA news agency said Monday the message also proposed connecting railways and power lines across the three countries. It said the message was delivered to mark the anniversary of the end of Japanese colonial rule on the Korean peninsula.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was quoted last week saying North Korean officials had responded favorably during initial discussions about the pipeline project. South Korea has contracted to purchase huge amounts of natural gas from Russia later in this decade, and a pipeline through North Korea would substantially reduce delivery costs.

For North Korea, the deal presents an opportunity to acquire vital hard currency by charging transit fees. However South Korea has been reluctant to enter into similar deals in the past because of its often hostile relationship with Pyongyang. Any such system could be disrupted during a future dispute.

KCNA quoted Mr. Medvedev’s message saying Russia is willing to boost cooperation with North Korea “in all directions of mutual concern.” The message said these included a “three-party plan” in the fields of gasification, energy and railway construction.

There have already been preliminary discussions of a rail line that would run from South Korea and connect to the trans-Siberian railroad, making it possible to travel by train from Seoul to Europe.

(Voice of America)

RUSSIAN CUCUMBERS. (Cetrioli alla russa)

Dunque dopo la mucca pazza, la Sars, l’aviaria e la suina è arrivato il cetriolo killer. Le vittime causate da questa variante del batterio Escherichia Coli sono certamente tante, sempre troppe. Tuttavia, anche stavolta, il rischio è che a livello mediatico venga instillata la psicosi collettiva della pandemia. Insomma, abili operazioni di spin a vantaggio dei soliti noti, case farmaceutiche in testa.

Nel frattempo accadono due cose. Anzitutto i paesi europei si scannano come al solito tra loro, accusandosi l’un l’altro d’aver dato inizio al contagio. Zapatero ha già chiesto a Berlino un risarcimento di almeno 200 milioni di euro per il danno economico d’immagine provocato dalle insinuazioni tedesche. Dal canto suo la Russia, e questo è il secondo aspetto rilevante, ha pensato bene di chiudere temporaneamente le proprie frontiere agli ortaggi comunitari. Proprio così, a tutti gli ortaggi, dal momento che non si è ancora sicuri dove risieda effettivamente questo batterio killer.

Ovviamente a Bruxelles si è gridato al sacrilegio. Frederic Vincent, portavoce del commissario alla salute dell'Unione Europea s’è affrettato a definirla una “misura sproporzionata”. Proporzionatissimo era invece il blocco alle importazioni di pollame proveniente dalla Russia deciso dalla Commissione Europea ai tempi dell’aviaria. Due pesi e due misure. Ma si sa, noi europei abbiamo la memoria corta, anzi cortissima.

Il fatto è che sul piatto della contesa non ci sono solamente gli ortaggi. Anche per i poderosi stomaci russi i cetrioli possono essere particolarmente indigesti. Ma ancora più indigeste possono essere le liberalizzazioni energetiche, come quella contenuta nel “terzo pacchetto” Ue che prevede la separazione tra produzione e distribuzione. Unbundling è il termine tecnico.

Angry è invece stata la reazione di Putin al vertice energetico Russia-Ue dello scorso febbraio. Il terzo pacchetto è senza dubbio un pugno al ventre delle ambizioni di Mosca di tener ancorato a sé, per mezzo dei tubi, il Vecchio Continente. Per il momento inutili i tentativi del premier russo di far leva sugli accordi energetici siglati con i singoli stati dell’Unione, così come inutile è apparso il tentativo di convincere Barroso del rischio di un aumento dei prezzi affidando le reti di distribuzione a piccole compagnie alternative a Gazprom.

È noto che tra Putin e Barroso non scorra buon sangue. Alcuni file di Wikileaks non fanno che confermare quanto già risultava evidente ai tempi della crisi georgiana del 2008, quando il presidente della Commissione Europea minacciò di cessare l’acquisto europeo di gas russo se Mosca non avesse interrotto immediatamente le operazioni militari. Com’era prevedibile il messaggio entrò da un orecchio di Putin ed uscì subito dall’altro suo orecchio: in attesa dei gasdotti made in Usa che bypasserebbero il territorio della Federazione, per l’Ue il gas russo è semplicemente irrinunciabile.

Al contrario l’unbundling è per Putin una minaccia seria. Una misura che rischia veramente di allentare i cordoni di Mosca sull’Unione Europea. Un fattore di disturbo per la politica russa del “cortile di casa” est europeo.

Perciò Il blocco alle importazioni di ortaggi europei non può che essere interpretato anche come una ritorsione alle misure energetiche decise da Bruxelles. Una vendetta, che come si sa, è un piatto che va servito freddo. Senza l’ausilio di un fornello a gas.
Proprio come i cetrioli alla russa.

Ingredienti : cetrioli - sale - pepe - olio - aceto - prezzemolo - crema di latte.

Mondate i cetrioli e ritagliateli in fette finissime. Raccogliete queste fettine in una piccola insalatiera e cospargetele con un po' di sale fino, per privare il cetriolo della molta acqua di vegetazione che contiene.
Dopo una mezz'ora prendete un po' di fette alla volta, strizzatele e spandetele sopra un tovagliolo che poi arrotolerete pian piano.
Le fettine così rinchiuse si asciugano perfettamente.
Dopo un altro po' di tempo accomodate le fettine nei piattini da antipasto, conditele con pochissimo sale, pepe, olio, aceto e prezzemolo trito, aggiungendo una cucchiaiata o due di crema di latte sciolta.
Mettete i piattini preparati in frigo per almeno un'ora, affinché i cetrioli possano essere serviti freddissimi.

(Pubblicato su 24Emilia)

AT FULL SPEED! (A tutto gas!)

Il Primo Ministro slovacco Iveta Radicova e il suo omologo ungherese Viktor Orban hanno firmato oggi a Bratislava un accordo internazionale su un collegamento gas transfrontaliero. Un accordi di programma era stato sottoscritto già il 19 Gennaio scorso dai Sottosegretari dei due Ministeri dell‘Economia, Martin Chren per la Slovacchia e Pal Kovacs per l‘Ungheria, e successivamente approvato dal Governo slovacco il 26 Gennaio.

Il collegamento tra Slovacchia ed Ungheria rientra nel più ampio progetto di corridoio nord-sud del gas, composto di diversi singoli progetti interconnessi. Il corridoio nord-sud si connetterà ai terminali di gas in Polonia e Croazia, e quindi il gasdotto attraverserà tutti i Paesi del Gruppo di Visegrad (V4), dunque anche Slovacchia e Ungheria. La Slovacchia sta i questo modo cercando di ridurre i rischi associati a possibili interruzioni delle forniture di gas dalla Russia, cosa che portò nel Gennaio 2008 ad una crisi del gas che mise a rischio non solo il riscaldamento delle abitazioni, ma anche la produzione di non poche aziende.

L’operatore slovacco Eustream di trasporto del gas ha già avviato colloqui con la sua società partner ungherese Foldgazszalito Rt per la redazione del rispettivo accordo commerciale e dettagli tecnici. Analogo accordo sarà fatto con la Polonia, con il cui operatore di rete GAZ-System è stata firmata una lettera di intenti pochi giorni fa.

L’accordo di oggi significherà un maggior grado di indipendenza in termini di sicurezza energetica della Slovacchia, nonché quello di tutta l’Unione Europea, ha affermato il Premier slovacco Iveta Radicova dopo la firma.

Secondo la Radicova, ci sono altre aree nelle quali i due Paesi possono migliorare. «Abbiamo sollevato il problema del collegamento delle reti elettriche, e abbiamo concordato con il Premier [Orban] che porteremo avanti un accordo in questo settore simile a quello del gas», ha detto, specificando che lo ritiene un obiettivo strategico. Tra gli altri temi discussi, la prevista ripresa dei lavori di costruzione della strada che collega la R4 nella Slovacchia orientale con l‘Ungheria. «L’Ungheria ha deciso di riprendere i piani per la superstrada tra Kosice e Miskolc», ha detto Orban, aggiungendo che intende trovare un accordo con la Slovacchia anche per il nuovo ponte nei pressi della città di confine di Komarno (regione di Nitra).
(Buongiorno Slovacchia)

THE ORIGINAL PURPOSE. (Lo scopo originale)

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych clinched energy pacts with Azerbaijan on Jan. 28 and attacked Russia for plans to bypass his country in supplying gas to Europe, reviving market fears of regular spats between Moscow and Kyiv.

Markets were relieved when Yanukovych, perceived as friendlier to the Kremlin than his predecessor, Viktor Yushchenko, was elected Ukraine’s president last year.

That followed five years of disputes between the ex-Soviet neighbors, marked by mid-winter cuts in Russian gas supplies to Europe that represent a quarter of the continent’s total needs.

But Yanukovych has played a much less pro-Moscow role than expected since taking office, saying the European Union was an equally or even more important partner than Russia.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the president lashed out at new Russian pipeline projects and signed oil and gas deals with Azerbaijan to cut Ukraine’s reliance on Russia.

Yanukovych said Ukraine shared Poland’s concerns about political motives behind the Nord Stream pipeline to supply Russian gas to Western Europe along the Baltic Sea floor, bypassing central European nations.

“Another project being discussed today between Russia and Europe is the construction of South Stream. This possibility is directly related to Ukraine and here I share the position of Poland,” he said, referring to a project to pipe gas under the Black Sea to southern Europe.

Russia ships about 80 percent of its gas exports to Europe through Ukraine now and the remaining 20 percent via Belarus and says it needs the new projects to boost Europe’s energy security after disruptions in previous years.

Yanukovych said South Stream would cost $25 billion while it would cost much less to upgrade Ukraine’s pipeline system.

“Why are our partners today pretending that there is no alternative? A year ago we proposed a project that would cost five times less – not more than $5 billion, it would come to the same destination points to which South Stream would go.”

“That’s why we ask the same question, speaking eye-to-eye with our partners, and we are still waiting for an answer.”

“If this is a way to exert pressure, not a commercial project, then of course serious questions arise about how we should build our relations today, let alone in the future.”

Yanukovych used the Davos platform to sign a deal with Azeri President Ilham Aliyev to import liquefied natural gas to a planned Ukrainian terminal aimed at reducing the country’s heavy dependence on Russian gas. The memorandum did not specify volumes for the terminal to be opened in 2015. He also signed a memorandum on cooperation in shipping Azeri oil across Ukraine.

Yanukovych said Ukraine would ship the first million tons of Caspian Sea oil to Europe via the pipeline this year, thus ending its use to export Russian crude to the Mediterranean.

“The Odessa-Brody pipeline has been used in various directions. Very soon we will start working according to the original idea, delivering oil from Odessa to European countries,” he said.

Interfax news agency quoted Ukrainian officials as saying the deal covered deliveries of up to 4 million tons a year.

Aliyev, who spoke at the same panel, said he was under no pressure from Russia to shun the Nabucco pipeline, seen as a key European Union’s attempt to reduce reliance on Russian.
(Therearenosunglasses's weblogs)

TOO MANY PIPELINES. (Troppe pipeline)

Europe may not be able to sustain all its proposed gas supply pipelines but will need to build at least some soon to ensure security of supply in the latter half of this decade.

Scarred by the Russia-Ukraine gas row of 2009, which cut about a fifth of Europe's supply in mid winter, major European gas consumers plan many pipelines to promising producing regions in central Asia, North Africa and the Middle East.

With China competing to woo producers, Europe will likely struggle to secure enough gas to fill all the new connections and would be unable to use it all if they do get filled.

"If every project that is discussed is built then there will be way too much supply, so I think the best projects will be developed and marginal ones delayed, or not built," said Graham Freedman, a senior analyst at UK consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

"But I don't think anybody doubts the fact that Europe is going to need more gas because domestic production is falling. It is going to be an importer for many years to come," he said.

Wood Mackenzie forecasts that gas demand in the European Union, Turkey and former Yugoslav states could rise from 551 bcm in 2010 to 653 billion cubic metres in 2020.

Under what it says is a bullish demand scenario, this would leave a supply shortfall of 125 bcm by the end of the decade unless far more is produced at home or brought in from overseas.

But if all major new pipelines were built and filled to capacity, gas flows to Europe by 2020 could far outstrip demand.

Since the Russia crisis, Europe has been comfortably supplied with gas for power generation, heating and industry through existing pipelines and an increasing number of liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers. The Medgaz link from Algeria to Spain could further increase supplies into the Iberian Peninisula by 8 bcm/year, if the repeatedly delayed pipeline opens this winter.

The 55 bcm/year Nord Stream pipeline under the Baltic Sea is expected to bring more Russian gas to western Europe, bypassing Ukraine by the end of next year.

Russia is pushing on with its South Stream project to bring up to another 63 bcm under the Black Sea via the Balkans.

The European Union is also championing the 31 bcm alternative Nabucco plan that would bring Caspian and Middle East gas via Turkey, excluding Russia.

But Italy also hopes that its projects TAP and ITGI for around 10 bcm capacity each can compete for mainly Caspian gas market share with South Stream and Nabucco, giving it more options via the "Southern Corridor" to Europe.

In all, the maximum capacity of these pipelines, some of which were conceived prior to the economic crisis which brought a gas price slump, adds up to 177 bcm to Europe's supply.

Pipeline supplies would also face competition from liquefied natural gas (LNG), which has become much more readily available because of a surge in North American shale gas production, with unconventional gas finds in Europe posing another threat to both types of external supplier.

"Some projects make sense from a security of supply perspective, because of the diversification of gas sources that they would bring," said Nigel Harris of UK consultancy Kingston Energy. "But with plenty of gas available from existing sources, there's no commercial benefit from diversification."

Nord Stream and South Stream are just additional routes for Russian-controlled gas flows, he said, while alternative sources from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Iran remain uncertain.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) thinks global gas demand may recover from 2011, but it still expects supply to outstrip demand until 2020..

Some gas suppliers are more optimistic, pointing to buoyant demand in the Middle East, China and India which could leave less gas for Europe. Phillipe Boisseau, president of France's Total Gas & Power, told the recent European Autumn Gas Conference in Berlin that the "supply bubble will disappear in three years."

Speakers agreed that current gas prices in consuming countries would not support all Europe's proposed supply lines, although they expect demand for power generation to contine to rise as Europe looks to back up its increasing wind power capacity with gas-fired plants.
(FuturesPros.com via Reuters)

BULGARIAN MAJORITY. (Maggioranza bulgara)

Russia and Bulgaria signed on Saturday accords to push ahead with the South Stream natural gas pipeline aimed to deliver gas to central and south Europe and cement Moscow's hold on European energy supplies.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his Bulgarian counterpart Boiko Borisov attended the signing of accords to set up a joint venture for the Bulgarian section of the project aimed at shipping Russian gas under the Black Sea to Europe.

'Today, a shareholder accord and a charter of the joint venture were signed. By doing this, we made one more serious step towards implementation of mutual agreements,' Putin told a news conference in Sofia where he arrived on a working visit.

The South Stream pipeline, controlled by Gazprom and Italy's ENI is planned to transport up to 63 billion cubic meters of gas to central and south Europe, bypassing countries such as Ukraine, at the end of 2015.

The link, in which French EDF is set to get a stake of no less than 10 percent, is a rival to the European Union-backed Nabucco pipeline, designed to bring gas from central Asia and the Middle East and reduce Europe's dependence on Russian deliveries.

Russia, the world's largest energy exporter, supplies Europe with a quarter of its gas needs. Analysts estimate European demand for Russian gas could rise to 30 percent by 2030.

Brussels and Moscow have been competing to sign up potential countries and suppliers for their projects.
The European Union member Bulgaria supports both projects, which are planned to run through its territory and has expressed concerns over delays in the Nabucco pipeline development.

'We are also working on the Nabucco pipeline with the same speed ... Bulgaria's interest is to transit gas through both pipelines,' Borisov told reporters.

His government, which put on review all Russian-backed energy projects last July, pledged to speed up work on South Stream after Gazprom promised to lower gas prices for Bulgaria, almost fully dependent on Russian gas supplies.

The Balkan country agreed to further accelerate work on the project in October, when Gazprom indicated South Stream could bypass it and run through Romania.

South Stream has also secured backing from Austria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Serbia and Slovenia.

Gazprom and state-controlled Bulgarian Energy Holding, which will have 50/50 stakes in the new venture, have already opened a tender to seek contractors for a feasibility study for the Bulgarian section, estimated to cost $835 million.

Bulgaria secures about 70 percent of its energy needs through imports. It gets almost all of its gas from Gazprom, its only nuclear power plant Kozloduy is Soviet-made and its only operational oil refinery is owned by Russia's LUKOIL.

Putin said LUKOIL was set to invest up to $2 billion more in its Bourgas-based oil refinery, Lukoil Neftochim.
Bulgaria and Russia also discussed the Belene nuclear power plant project, which Sofia had also put on hold due to a lack of funding and strategic partners.

Sofia has said it will push ahead with the 2,000 megawatt plant, for which it has contracted Russia's state Atomstroyexport, only if backed by strategic European investors.

Borisov has indicated Bulgaria is close to finding a partner in Germany for Belene, estimated to cost over 7 billion euros.

Bulgaria's warming towards the projects has irked Washington and Brussels which are encouraging Bulgaria to lessen its heavy energy dependence on Russia.

Belene froze last November, when German energy giant RWE , which had agreed on a 49 percent stake, pulled out.

Sofia wants to build Belene so as not to lose hundreds of millions of euros it has already invested and to avoid paying hefty compensation to the Russian contractor, Atomstroyexport.
(XE, via Reuters)

ALL AT THE ZAR COURT. (Tutti alla corte dello zar)

Alcune compagnie energetiche tedesche hanno espresso il desiderio di partecipare al progetto South Stream. E’ quanto emerge dall’incontro Berlusconi-Putin di domenica scorsa. Ecco che le ali del Nabucco sono sempre meno dorate e, se le cose continueranno per questa china, il progetto energetico europeo non andrà lontano. Nabucco è infatti il nome dato al gasdotto che dal mar Caspio dovrebbe rifornire i Balcani fino all’Italia e all’Austria. Lo scopo della sua costruzione è eminentemente geopolitico: estendere l’influenza “occidentale” sui Balcani e sul Caucaso. La sua progettazione è precedente all’adesione all’Unione Europea dei Balcani orientali e si profila quale strumento di persuasione a restare in orbita europea per i Paesi che vedono procedere a rilento il loro percorso di integrazione. Nabucco nasce come concorrente del South Stream russo poiché, si ragionò giustamente, dipendere dalla Russia nel settore dei rifornimenti energetici significherebbe perdere larghe fette di sovranità: come criticare la diplomazia di Mosca nel campo dei diritti umani se dal Cremlino controllano i rubinetti del gas? Come osteggiare la politica estera di Mosca, le guerre in Cecenia e in Georgia, l’assalto all’Artico, le ingerenze in Ucraina, se si diventa servi del gas russo? E ancora: come affermare l’autonomia dell’Unione di fronte a un duplice vassallaggio, militare-americano da un lato e russo-energetico dall’altro?

Ma sul Nabucco si è investito poco e male. L’Italia e l’Eni sono state le prime a capire che non c’era di che ingrassarsi col progetto europeo e si son subito vendute al “rivale” russo. Eni e Gazprom diventano così partners per la costruzione del South Stream con tanti saluti all’europeo Nabucco. L’Italia, che con difficoltà si annovera tra le democrazie compiute, predilige fare affari con Putin e Gheddafi. La torta russa piace non solo agli italiani, ecco che la Edf (Electricité de France) entra nella joint-venture con Gazprom ed Eni. Lo scorso giugno 2010 Nicolas Sarkozy vola a San Pietroburgo alla corte dello zar per sottoscrivere l’affare.

Ora anche i tedeschi vogliono partecipare all’abbuffata. “Benone” esclama Berlusconi in visita presso l’amico Putin, in questo modo sarà possibile riscuotere l’interesse dell’Unione Europea finora rimasta fredda nei confronti del South Stream. I tedeschi, va detto, già sono partner di Gazprom per la costruzione del gasdotto North Stream, quello che aggira repubbliche baltiche e Polonia (ree di scarso amore verso lo zar) e va dritto in Germania; quello sottoscritto a inizio anni Duemila dall’allora cancelliere Schroeder, attratto dall’oro azzurro russo, poi divenuto dirigente Gazprom e responsabile proprio del consorzio North Stream; quello per cui in Polonia si stracciano le vesti gridando a un nuovo patto Molotov-Ribbentrop.

Rumors indicano nella Basf il nome dell’azienda energetica tedesca pronta a unirsi ai tre moschettieri Gazprom, Eni, Edf. Un’ulteriore mazzata al progetto Nabucco per il quale la Banca europea per gli Investimenti (Bei) e quella per la Ricostruzione e Sviluppo (Bers) hanno appena stanziato altri 4 miliardi di euro, segno che l’affrancamento energetico dell’Europa dalla Russia è considerato prioritario da Bruxelles che si trova a dover gestire tre serpi in seno assai velenose.

Una nota finale: il Nabucco parte dall’Iran, via Tabriz ed Erzurum. Proprio ad Erzurum raccoglie il braccio che s’avvia da Baku e passa per Tiblisi. Poi va verso Ankara, Istanbul e l’Europa. Il governo italiano si è sempre mostrato molto duro nei confronti del regime degli Ayatollah, ai limiti dell’ottusità, e si è detto favorevole all’intervento militare a stelle e strisce mentre, per ragioni che dopo questo lungo discorso parranno ovvie, non ha mai detto “beh” sul massacro in Cecenia.

I partners del Nabucco, inoltre, stanno tutti cambiando casacca: L’Azerbaijan si è vincolato con Mosca, e ben poco della sua produzione resterà a Bruxelles, ma il Cremlino ha promesso protezione e denari in quantità al regime di Baku. Il Turkmenistan, altra dittatura, è da pochissimo entrata in affari con Eni e Gazprom e punta a rifornire la Cina più che l’Europa. L’Iran -grazie anche all’intervento americano- è assai indietro nello sviluppo dei suoi giacimenti. Ecco allora che non resta che prendersi in faccia l’ironia di Putin: “Che Dio li aiuti -ha dichiarato- il Nabucco è un tubo vuoto e il consorzio che lo sta sviluppando (l’austriaca Omw, l’ungherese Mol, la rumena Transgaz, la Bulgargas, la tedesca Rwe e la turca Botas. ndr) non fornirà nemmeno un metro cubo di gas fino al 2018 mentre fra un anno il South Stream sarà pronto”. Con buona pace della democrazia europea.
(East Journal)

UNCOVERING BARENTS SEA. (Scoperchiando il Mare di Barents)

Talking to journalists this week, Minister Trutnev called the Russian-Norwegian delimitation of the Barents Sea as “a truly historical event for the development of Russian geology”. –We get the chance to study, and then hopefully exploit, resources estimated to tens of billions tons of oil equivalents, RIA Novosti reports.

He also stressed that Russia is obliged to develop trans-border resources jointly with Norway, Oilru.com reports.

Read also: Norway and Russia sign maritime delimitation agreement

As previously reported, Trutnev last week confirmed that Statoil will be given exclusive rights as Norwegian partner in all the transborder projects. Other foreign companies will have to negotiate with the parts to get stakes, he underlined.

The deal signed last week in Murmansk could thus give Russia a new oil and gas province, Trutnev says. He believes that prospects are big both on the Russian and Norwegian side of the border.

-There are up to ten structures which we believe can be adhered to the category of “huge” and “unique”, the Russian minister said, RIA Novosti reports. He stressed that exploration in the area can start only after the ratification of the deal by the two countries’ legislative assemblies and that it subsequently will take “at least 5-7 years” to study the structures and a minimum of 12-15 years before production can start.

Trutnev doubts that the shelf will become the new hydrocarbon resource base for Russia by year 2020, an objective proclaimed by federal authorities. -This is a "very complicated and unrealistic task", he says, RBC.ru reports.

As previously reported, Trutnev was part of the Russian delegation attending the signing ceremony on the delimitation of the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean. After the ceremony, Trutnev said that the Barents Sea could hide as much as “25 percent of hydrocarbon resources on Planet Earth”.
(BarentsObserver)

APR IS THE KEY. (L'area del Pacifico asiatico è la chiave)

Now that a project to boost capacity of the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline up to 50 million tons per year (with prospects of further capacity increase up to 80 million tons) has been approved, Russia is gaining chances to expand its presence in the Asia-Pacific energy market.

Five more oil pumping stations are going to be added to already existing seven to supply even more Russian oil to Asia. Apart from this, several standby routes will be built via the rivers Angara, Lena and Aldan, as well as through the Ust-Ilimsk water reservoir.

Step-by-step extension of the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline will speed up development of the whole regions of Siberia and the Russian Far East. The project will boost infrastructure development of the region’s oil transportation system. An expert Alexander Pasechnik comments.Russia has been successfully expanding its oil exports to the Asia-Pacific region, which is in no way a sensational decision. Expansion in exports had been planned in the original draft project. So, the capacity of 80 million tons per year is what we expect the next stage of the project’s implementation to bring us to.

The first leg of the pipeline was commissioned last December to link Taishet, a town in the Irkutsk region, and Skovorodino in the Amur region. From Skovorodino the oil is delivered further by railway to the Kozmino port in the Primorsk region.There also will be a spur to China, turning the whole system into a global network connecting deposits in Western and Eastern Siberia with the Pacific coast and providing diversification of the Russian energy resources. Until recently, Russia has exported its oil and gas mainly to Europe. But construction of the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline paved Russia the way to the APR, now the epicenter of global economic growth.
As China is the leading energy consumer in the APR [Asia-Pacific Region, ndr], its demand for fuel is likely to increase twice in 10 years. India`s rapidly growing economy is causing growing demand for energy as well, while South Korea and Japan are expected to reach the same level by 2015. So, there is no doubt that the Russian oil will be in high demand in the region. Besides, delivering oil from Russia is quicker than from the Middle East, which is an extra point playing into our hands.

Meanwhile, China has asked Russia to supply some oil for testing the newly built Chinese leg of the oil pipeline. Under the 2009 bilateral agreements, China is expected to start receiving 15 million tons of Russian oil per year.
(The Voice of Russia)

BP RUSSIAN CONNECTION. (Il legame russo della BP)

Russia's top oil boss gave a cool nod of approval to BP Plc's new Chief Executive Bob Dudley on Wednesday, while praising his predecessor Tony Hayward, ousted over his handling of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

Russia is a key part of BP's global operation, providing the company with a quarter of its reserves before the U.S. oil spill, so it is vital for Dudley to establish a good working relationship with the world's largest oil exporting nation.

"We are ... counting on your experience, Mr Dudley, and on new projects in our partnership," Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin said, opening a meeting with both Dudley and Hayward, where he said Russia was "satisfied" with the new CEO.

"The field for cooperation is very broad."

It was the first visit to Russia for Dudley, once the CEO of BP's joint venture in Russia, since he was forced out of the country in a fierce dispute with a quartet of billionaires who accused him of running the 50-50 venture like a BP subsidiary.

"And now Mr Dudley is back!" Sechin exclaimed with a laugh.

At the headquarters of Russia's top oil producer, Rosneft, where Sechin is chairman, Hayward led the way into the meeting and greeted the deputy prime minister with an embrace and a formal kiss on the cheek.

Sechin, a close ally of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, said Putin asked him to "say hello" to both Dudley and Hayward.
Hayward, who acceded to a peace deal with the Russian shareholders, which was chalked up as a loss for BP, will take a seat on the board of the Russia venture, TNK-BP.

"The fact that you will continue to work on the board of TNK-BP will be a help to Mr Dudley and to us," Sechin said.

"And who knows? Maybe there could be other offers in the future."

As the meeting opened in the presence of journalists, there was no mention of potential asset sales to pay for the damage from the Gulf of Mexico catastrophe, the world's largest accidental marine oil spill.

But analysts said they were likely on the agenda for Dudley's one-day trip to Russia as the company declared progress plugging the well.

Industry sources said he also met BP's Russian partners in TNK-BP and with Sergei Bogdanchikov, the CEO of top Russian oil producer Rosneft.

BP, which took a $32.2 billion charge related to the spill in its results last week, has said it will sell $25 billion to $30 billion of assets to pay for the disaster.

"What we can be sure of is that Russia has a specific agenda, i.e. a wish list, and will take full advantage of BP's weakened state to press that," Chris Weafer, chief strategist at Russian brokerage Uralsib, said in an e-mailed note.

BP owns 1.2 percent of Rosneft as well as its 50 percent stake in TNK-BP.

"I want to reassure you BP is continuing its commitment to Russia," Hayward told Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, in a meeting with incoming CEO Bob Dudley. Dudley fled Russia in 2008 as BP battled its local partners for control of their 50-50 venture TNK-BP.

Hayward said he remained personally committed to working in Russia's oil and gas sector, but Dudley was well placed to continue the relationship as CEO.

TNK-BP has said it may buy BP's Venezuelan assets and media reports have suggested BP is more likely to sell assets to Russian companies than divest its holdings here.

Earlier this week a Rosneft official denied newspaper reports that the Russian producer was in talks to buy BP's stake in a German refinery Gelsenkirchen, a joint venture with Venezuela's PDVSA and a network of German petrol stations.

The sides must also decide the fate of the giant undeveloped Siberian Kovykta gas deposit that was slated for sale to Gazprom in a deal that was never finalized.

"If BP is going to be squeezed more and more in the U.S., as recent reports suggest "then its Russian assets will become an even more important part of its future," Weafer added.
(Abc News)

IT'S THE END OF THE WEST, AS WE KNOW IT (AND I DON'T KNOW HOW TO FEEL)

A major reason for the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of Afghanistan was the building of a pipeline through the country that would take natural gas from Turkmenistan to India and Pakistan. Canada and the other 44 Western countries occupying Afghanistan are supporting this U.S. objective by bolstering Washington’s military position in the country.

Turkmenistan, which borders Afghanistan, contains the fourth largest reserves of natural gas in the world. The U.S. has been trying to set up the pipeline for a decade, having first negotiated the venture with the ousted Taliban government. Two months after these negotiations broke down, Washington overthrew the Taliban in October 2001 when it invaded Afghanistan.

Since then, the U.S. has persuaded India, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan to sign an agreement aimed at constructing the pipeline, but the war in Afghanistan and the U.S.’s failure to defeat the Taliban stalled actual work on this project. Washington’s occupation of Afghanistan and pipeline plans are part of its strategy to gain control of Central Asia’s and the Caspian Sea area’s energy riches and divert them away from Russia, China, and Iran.

As Richard Boucher, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, stated in September 2007: “One of our goals is to stabilize Afghanistan so it can become a conduit and hub between South and Central Asia so that energy can flow to the south… and so that the countries of Central Asia are no longer bottled up between the two enormous powers of China and Russia, but rather that they have outlets to the south as well as to the north and the east and the west.”

However, as the Indian diplomat M.K. Bhadrakumar put it in an article for Asia Times, “The United States' pipeline diplomacy in the Caspian, which strove to bypass Russia, elbow out China and isolate Iran, has foundered.”
Recently, the U.S.’s Turkmen-Afghan pipeline plans have suffered what appears to be a fatal blow. On January 6, Turkmenistan committed its entire gas exports to China, Russia, and Iran with the inauguration of the Dauletabad-Sarakhs-Khangiran (DSK) pipeline which connects Iran's northern Caspian area with Turkmenistan.

As Bhadrakumar explains, Turkmenistan “has no urgent need of the pipelines that the United States and the European Union have been advancing.” The operation of the DSK pipeline, along with the launching of another one between China and Turkmenistan in December 2009, has “virtually redrawn the energy map of Eurasia and the Caspian,” he maintains. “We are witnessing a new pattern of energy cooperation at the regional level that dispenses with Big Oil [private Western multinational oil companies]. Russia traditionally takes the lead. China and Iran follow the example. Russia, Iran, and Turkmenistan hold, respectively, the world's largest, second-largest, and fourth-largest gas reserves. And China will be consumer par excellence in this century. The matter is of profound consequence to U.S. global strategy.”

Bhadrakumar has served in diplomatic posts for India in the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

Russia and Turkmenistan have also agreed to build an east-west pipeline connecting all of the latter’s gas fields to one network so that the pipelines going to Russia, Iran, and China can take gas from any of the fields. (See the accompanying map for the routes of these new and proposed pipelines.)

Three weeks before the opening of the DSK pipeline, China and Turkmenistan inaugurated a major natural gas pipeline between the two countries. The presidents of China, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan attended the opening ceremony of the 1,833-kilometre pipeline on December 14, 2009. The pipeline will transport natural gas from the Saman-Depe field in eastern Turkmenistan through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to China’s Xinjiang province, from where it will go to 14 Chinese provinces and cities. By 2012, the pipeline will deliver 40 billion cubic metres of gas per year, which is more than half of China’s present gas consumption.

Chinese President Hu Jintao described the pipeline as “another platform for collaboration and cooperation” between China and Central Asia. In return for access to Central Asian gas, China is building infrastructure and giving cheap loans to the area’s republics. According to John Chan, writing on the World Socialist Website: “Beijing’s broader aim is to bring the region within its own political and strategic orbit.”

Turkmenistan President Berdymukhamedov declared that the pipeline has “not only commercial and economic value. It is also political,” and will become “a major contributing factor to security in Asia”.

Uzbekistan President Islam Karimov added: “China, through its wise and farsighted policy, has become one of the key guarantors of global security.”

As Chan puts it, “The opening of a major Chinese pipeline from Turkmenistan alters the Central Asian energy equation. The Financial Times commented last week that the pipeline “deals a blow to the European Union’s plans to win Turkmen supplies for the planned Nabucco pipeline.”
This pipeline is the U.S.’s and E.U.’s attempt at breaking Russia’s dominant role as the leading energy supplier to Europe. Nabucco depends mainly on getting gas from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. However, Russia now wants to double its consumption of Azerbaijani gas, and Iran is also becoming a consumer of this gas, further reducing supplies for Nabucco.
In December 2009, Azerbaijan signed an agreement to deliver gas to Iran through the 1,400km Kazi-Magomed-Astara pipeline. Russia's South Stream and North Stream pipelines (the latter’s construction starts in Spring 2010), will supply gas to northern and southern Europe, ensuring Moscow’s continued dominance of energy supplies to Europe.
As Bhadrakumar points out, the DSK pipeline shows that U.S. efforts to demonize, isolate, and terrorize Iran have failed miserably. In open defiance of U.S. policy, President Berdymukhammedov of Turkmenistan is busy creating “a new economic axis” with Iranian president Mahmud Ahmadinejad, whom he considers a valuable partner.

Washington’s and the West’s show of force in Afghanistan has also failed to impress Berdymukhammedov, who is giving all of his country’s natural gas to Russia, China, and Iran. These countries are not currently engaged in imperialist military occupation of another nation. All they had to do to get Turkmenistan’s gas was to offer it a decent economic deal. So, while the West kills thousands of civilians in Afghanistan and Pakistan and ravages both countries, Russia, China and Iran are acquiring the crucial energy riches of Central Asia and the Caspian area without firing a shot.

Russian dominance of Central Asia was further cemented by the recent overthrow of the pro-U.S. government in Kyrgyzstan and its replacement by a pro-Moscow regime. The new government has told Washington that it can no longer use the Manas airbase, which is the main transshipment point for American supplies to Afghanistan.

In light of such major Western energy-related defeats, the continuing occupation of Afghanistan by 46 Western nations must have some other purpose. If their military venture were mainly economic — if they simply wanted greater access to Central Asia’s resources — why did they not offer the region’s countries acceptable prices for them, just as Russia, China, and Iran are doing?

The answer perhaps lies in a memorable remark by the great Palestinian intellectual Edward Said: “At the heart of the Western Idea is imperialism.”

The West did not become rich by offering resource-endowed countries fair and mutually beneficial economic deals. It became rich by subjecting countries in the Global South to 500 years of genocide and plunder through colonialism, neocolonialism, and the endless wars these aggressive actions entail.

The U.S. and its allies do not seem to realize that the dark age of “might-is-right” imperialism is coming to an end. Russia, China, India, and Iran are not countries that can be subdued by displays of military aggression in neighbouring nations. The continuing futile occupation of Afghanistan reflects the failure of the West’s political and military strategists to face this new geopolitical reality.

What possible threat could a financially and politically crippled West — a coalition that can’t even defeat the Taliban after nine years — pose to nuclear-armed Russia, China, and India? Countries like these are busy creating a post-imperial age in which aggression and occupation are not required to secure needed resources.

They are leaving the decadent West in the dust of history.
(RawaNews)

10 ME, 10 YOU (10 io, 10 te)

Russian and Italy will each give a 10% stake in the South Stream pipeline to France's EDF , Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said today.

"We will do it concurrently - us and the Italians, 10% each," Putin told reporters on a visit to Ukraine which followed a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi in Italy.

EDF is set to get a 20% stake in the South Stream gas pipeline designed to bring Russian gas to Europe, with work on the project due to start in the first half of 2012, Putin and Berlusconi said today.

Separately, Putin said Russia's budget will lose $3 billion this year and $4 billion in 2011 as a result of agreeing last week to a 30% cut in the price of its gas supplies to Ukraine.

"In essence it will mean an increase in the budget deficit for us," he said. "These are serious parameters, but we will manage."

Russia had expected a deficit of 3 trillion roubles ($103 billion), or 6.8% of gross domestic product this year, Reuters reported today.
(UpStreamOnline.com)

SEVASTOPOL PAID IN GAS? (Sevastopoli pagata in metano?)

The presidents of Ukraine and Russia agreed Wednesday to extend the stay of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol after the lease expires in 2017.

The move is among the strongest signs since Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych took power in February that he will steer away from his pro-Western predecessor's drive to shed Russia's influence.

It also is likely to boost Yanukovych's standing at home by taking some pressure off Ukraine's beleaguered economy. The agreement includes Russia giving Ukraine steep discounts for the natural gas on which its industries depend.

Ukraine has been hit harder by the global downturn than many other European countries, and it has been eager to get discounts for Russian gas.

For years, Ukraine bought Russian gas at well below market prices, but after Yushchenko took office and pledged to bring the country into NATO and the European Union, Russia repeatedly raised prices. Price disputes led to Russian gas cutoffs; the most severe, in early 2009, lasted two weeks and severely curtailed Russia's gas exports to Western Europe, most of which transit Ukraine.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said the base's lease would receive a 25-year extension. Russia pays $90 million per year for the base. There was no word on any change under the new deal.

Ukrainian opposition figures quickly criticized the deal, saying the lease extension violated the constitution.

Ukraine's previous president, Viktor Yushchenko, had fought to kick the fleet out when its lease expired, calling it a hostile presence in Ukraine.
(Dallas News)

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The smiles on the two president’s faces belied the hard work that had gone into making the deal happen. According to the Kommersant daily the negotiating teams, headed by Prime Ministers Vladimir Putin and Nikolai Azarov, and including on the Russian side Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, had been up all night finalizing the details of the agreement. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich were just going through the formalities.

But there is a good reason for the smiles and the attention to detail. The deal addresses three of the most sensitive issues in Russian-Ukrainian relations: the future of the Russian Baltic Fleet, gas supplies, and potential Ukrainian membership in NATO.

The Black Sea fleet will get to stay in Sevastopol, its historic and only really viable base, until 2042; that saves Russia money on building new naval facilities on its own Black Sea coast, but it also gives it a “political-strategic” victory, said Volodymyr Fesenko, the head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies in Kiev. “Russia not only preserves a military presence in the Black Sea basin and on Ukrainian territory, but also has a factor of influence on external security policy and internal affairs in Ukraine,” he said.

According to some commentators, including the Kommersant daily, the jewel in the crown of that influence is that since NATO membership rules forbid the presence of non-alliance military bases on members’ territory, the agreement effectively puts a 30-year freeze on Ukraine’s aspirations to join the North Atlantic Alliance. NATO membership was a key policy of Yanukovich’s predecessor, former President Vitor Yushchenko, and the source of much of the ill feeling between his administration and Moscow.

The quid-pro-quo is a 30 percent discount on Russian gas deliveries, which, according to the deal, Ukraine will count as additional rent payments on the Sevastopol port. For Ukraine, that basically means a saving of $100 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas (for the record, the discount will be $100 per 1,000 cubic meters when prices are over $330, and 30 percent for lower prices. Current prices are around $334. The discount will apply to 30 billion cubic meters in 2010, and 40 billion from 2011 onwards).

At yesterday’s press conference Yanukovich said that Ukraine would receive from Russia “a real investment of resources, specifically gas,” amounting to “around $40 billion dollars” over the next ten years. “And this bears the hallmarks of an economic victory for Ukraine,” said Fesenko.

It’s so far difficult to tell whether an economic win for Ukraine means a loss for Russia. In a note released Thursday morning Alfa Bank briefly pointed out that the gas discount would come at the expense of the Russian government, rather than Gazprom, but a spokesman for the bank refused to comment further, saying that the company’s Kiev and Moscow analysts were still working out the long-term implications.

Sergei Markov, a political scientist and State Duma Deputy for the United Russia faction, insisted the $40 billion cited by Yanukovich in yesterday’s press conference was an investment on which Russia expects a return. “Russia is likely to get a lot of profit from joint Russian-Ukrainian economic projects,” he said. “It’s a popular but crude mistake to suppose that Russia is paying for the Black Sea Fleet with gas.” (Markov also contests the widely held assumption that the deal will preclude NATO membership, pointing out that when the George W. Bush administration was cheerleading Yushchenko’s membership bid, U.S. officials had said the Russian base ought not to be a barrier).

According to Markov, the deal around the Black Sea Fleet is actually much simpler. “Russia saves hundreds of millions of dollars that it would otherwise have to spend building new naval bases in Novorossiysk and elsewhere,” he said. “The deal is, Ukraine lets us stay in Sevastopol, and we share the savings.”

Not everyone is so convinced by either the supposed Chinese wall between the two agreements, or the benefits of the deal. Russian opposition leader and one-time advisor to former Ukrainian president Yushchenko Boris Nemtsov told the Kommersant daily that “we could have demanded more for that money,” and warned darkly of the “Lukashenko factor,” – a reference to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has gained a reputation for taking Russian aid without reciprocation. (Others have also raised the Lukashenko parallel, but not always negatively. Victor Ozerov, the chairman of the Federation Council’s defense committee, told Kommersant that though the price was high, it was no less than Russia grants Belarus, “and Lukashenko threatens worse relations.” And Markov even suggested that improved relations with Kiev might strengthen Moscow’s hand in its troubled relations with Minsk).

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the deal is proving even more divisive. The presence of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol is a subject that polarizes Ukrainian society, and it has unified the fractious opposition for the first time since the presidential elections, said Fesenko. “Two days ago Yushchenko, [former Prime Minister Yulia] Tymoshenko, [Arseniy] Yatsenyuk, [Vyacheslav] Kiriyenko, were all criticizing each other. Now they’re united in criticizing the agreement about the Black Sea Fleet,” he said. On Thursday afternoon it was reported that the Ukrainian Constitutional Court had approved the deal, but that doesn’t mean it will pass into law. “In the coming days we may see a parliamentary crisis as the opposition attempts to block ratification of the deal,” said Fesenko.
(Russia Profile)