TYMOSHENKO, THE BIG BLUFF. (Tymoshenko, il grande bluff)

Far fuori gli avversari politici mettendoli dietro le sbarre non è certo il metodo migliore per gestire il potere ottenuto in maniera democratica. Eppure è quello che sta succedendo in Ucraina con il caso di Yulia Tymoshenko, ex primo ministro e leader dell’opposizione che è stata condannata a sette anni di galera per abuso di potere.

Al presidente Victor Yanukovich la dura sentenza serve anche per ottenere una piattaforma giuridica per tentare di ottenere la revisione dei contratti del 2009, obiettivamente svantaggiosi per il paese. Si spiega in questa maniera la reazione russa, con il Cremlino che sia durante il procedimento sia alla sua conclusione si è schierato a favore dell’imputata, sottolineando la validità degli accordi raggiunti tra l’eroina della rivoluzione arancione e Vladimir Putin due anni fa.
I rapporti tra Kiev e Mosca sono sempre passati attraverso le pipelines: è l’oro blu a unire o dividere, a seconda dei momenti. E i protagonisti di queste storie sono sempre gli stessi. In Ucraina Yulia Tymoshenko, ex principessa del gas che con il suo gruppo ha gestito per anni il traffico con la Russia e che prima è passata al ministero dell’Energia poi alla seggiola di premier; Dmitri Firtash, oligarca impegnato nell’energia e non solo, nemico giurato della bionda pasionaria; Yuri Boiko, attuale ministro dell’Energia, ex ceo a Naftogaz e uno dei suggeritori di Yanukovich, da anni schierato con l’ala conservatrice uscita dal blocco dell’ex presidente Leonid Kuchma cui appartengono gli altri magnati dell’industria ucraina, guidati da Rinat Akhmetov.

In Russia chi controlla Gazprom, cioè il Cremlino, è il vero gestore delle relazioni che toccano economia e politica: Putin impera. E se l’ormai scomparso Victor Chernomyrdin dopo essere stato per anni il numero uno di Gazprom era stato mandato a fare l’ambasciatore in Ucraina lo scorso decennio il motivo era chiaro. Politica e gas: gli intrecci al Cremlino sono come quelli alla Bankova e interpretarli non è sempre cosa semplice: ma è chiaro che il processo Tymoshenko si inserisce nel canovaccio dei duelli per il potere.
L’Europa in questa contesa fa da spettatrice: non ha danari per intraprendere un progetto consistente per la ristrutturazione del gas ucraino e rischia di lasciare via libera alla Russia che, avviato Nordstream, ha ora Southstream in progetto. Il sistema di trasporto ucraino va modernizzato e Gazprom vuole metterci sopra le mani, sul modello bielorusso (lo stesso dicasi per Naftogaz). Bruxelles si allarma per la Tymoshenko, ma non può permettersi di abbandonare i negoziati sull’accordo di associazione che dovrebbe essere firmato entro l’anno con Kiev.
L’errore europeo è stato quello di non capire che la rivoluzione del 2004 era un bluff. Gli ucraini l’anno capito da tempo, basta andare a guardarsi i sondaggi sul gradimento della Lady di ferro, peggiori di quelli di Yanukovich. Ora rischia di essere troppo tardi.
(Limes)

RUSSIAN CUCUMBERS. (Cetrioli alla russa)

Dunque dopo la mucca pazza, la Sars, l’aviaria e la suina è arrivato il cetriolo killer. Le vittime causate da questa variante del batterio Escherichia Coli sono certamente tante, sempre troppe. Tuttavia, anche stavolta, il rischio è che a livello mediatico venga instillata la psicosi collettiva della pandemia. Insomma, abili operazioni di spin a vantaggio dei soliti noti, case farmaceutiche in testa.

Nel frattempo accadono due cose. Anzitutto i paesi europei si scannano come al solito tra loro, accusandosi l’un l’altro d’aver dato inizio al contagio. Zapatero ha già chiesto a Berlino un risarcimento di almeno 200 milioni di euro per il danno economico d’immagine provocato dalle insinuazioni tedesche. Dal canto suo la Russia, e questo è il secondo aspetto rilevante, ha pensato bene di chiudere temporaneamente le proprie frontiere agli ortaggi comunitari. Proprio così, a tutti gli ortaggi, dal momento che non si è ancora sicuri dove risieda effettivamente questo batterio killer.

Ovviamente a Bruxelles si è gridato al sacrilegio. Frederic Vincent, portavoce del commissario alla salute dell'Unione Europea s’è affrettato a definirla una “misura sproporzionata”. Proporzionatissimo era invece il blocco alle importazioni di pollame proveniente dalla Russia deciso dalla Commissione Europea ai tempi dell’aviaria. Due pesi e due misure. Ma si sa, noi europei abbiamo la memoria corta, anzi cortissima.

Il fatto è che sul piatto della contesa non ci sono solamente gli ortaggi. Anche per i poderosi stomaci russi i cetrioli possono essere particolarmente indigesti. Ma ancora più indigeste possono essere le liberalizzazioni energetiche, come quella contenuta nel “terzo pacchetto” Ue che prevede la separazione tra produzione e distribuzione. Unbundling è il termine tecnico.

Angry è invece stata la reazione di Putin al vertice energetico Russia-Ue dello scorso febbraio. Il terzo pacchetto è senza dubbio un pugno al ventre delle ambizioni di Mosca di tener ancorato a sé, per mezzo dei tubi, il Vecchio Continente. Per il momento inutili i tentativi del premier russo di far leva sugli accordi energetici siglati con i singoli stati dell’Unione, così come inutile è apparso il tentativo di convincere Barroso del rischio di un aumento dei prezzi affidando le reti di distribuzione a piccole compagnie alternative a Gazprom.

È noto che tra Putin e Barroso non scorra buon sangue. Alcuni file di Wikileaks non fanno che confermare quanto già risultava evidente ai tempi della crisi georgiana del 2008, quando il presidente della Commissione Europea minacciò di cessare l’acquisto europeo di gas russo se Mosca non avesse interrotto immediatamente le operazioni militari. Com’era prevedibile il messaggio entrò da un orecchio di Putin ed uscì subito dall’altro suo orecchio: in attesa dei gasdotti made in Usa che bypasserebbero il territorio della Federazione, per l’Ue il gas russo è semplicemente irrinunciabile.

Al contrario l’unbundling è per Putin una minaccia seria. Una misura che rischia veramente di allentare i cordoni di Mosca sull’Unione Europea. Un fattore di disturbo per la politica russa del “cortile di casa” est europeo.

Perciò Il blocco alle importazioni di ortaggi europei non può che essere interpretato anche come una ritorsione alle misure energetiche decise da Bruxelles. Una vendetta, che come si sa, è un piatto che va servito freddo. Senza l’ausilio di un fornello a gas.
Proprio come i cetrioli alla russa.

Ingredienti : cetrioli - sale - pepe - olio - aceto - prezzemolo - crema di latte.

Mondate i cetrioli e ritagliateli in fette finissime. Raccogliete queste fettine in una piccola insalatiera e cospargetele con un po' di sale fino, per privare il cetriolo della molta acqua di vegetazione che contiene.
Dopo una mezz'ora prendete un po' di fette alla volta, strizzatele e spandetele sopra un tovagliolo che poi arrotolerete pian piano.
Le fettine così rinchiuse si asciugano perfettamente.
Dopo un altro po' di tempo accomodate le fettine nei piattini da antipasto, conditele con pochissimo sale, pepe, olio, aceto e prezzemolo trito, aggiungendo una cucchiaiata o due di crema di latte sciolta.
Mettete i piattini preparati in frigo per almeno un'ora, affinché i cetrioli possano essere serviti freddissimi.

(Pubblicato su 24Emilia)

THE ORIGINAL PURPOSE. (Lo scopo originale)

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych clinched energy pacts with Azerbaijan on Jan. 28 and attacked Russia for plans to bypass his country in supplying gas to Europe, reviving market fears of regular spats between Moscow and Kyiv.

Markets were relieved when Yanukovych, perceived as friendlier to the Kremlin than his predecessor, Viktor Yushchenko, was elected Ukraine’s president last year.

That followed five years of disputes between the ex-Soviet neighbors, marked by mid-winter cuts in Russian gas supplies to Europe that represent a quarter of the continent’s total needs.

But Yanukovych has played a much less pro-Moscow role than expected since taking office, saying the European Union was an equally or even more important partner than Russia.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the president lashed out at new Russian pipeline projects and signed oil and gas deals with Azerbaijan to cut Ukraine’s reliance on Russia.

Yanukovych said Ukraine shared Poland’s concerns about political motives behind the Nord Stream pipeline to supply Russian gas to Western Europe along the Baltic Sea floor, bypassing central European nations.

“Another project being discussed today between Russia and Europe is the construction of South Stream. This possibility is directly related to Ukraine and here I share the position of Poland,” he said, referring to a project to pipe gas under the Black Sea to southern Europe.

Russia ships about 80 percent of its gas exports to Europe through Ukraine now and the remaining 20 percent via Belarus and says it needs the new projects to boost Europe’s energy security after disruptions in previous years.

Yanukovych said South Stream would cost $25 billion while it would cost much less to upgrade Ukraine’s pipeline system.

“Why are our partners today pretending that there is no alternative? A year ago we proposed a project that would cost five times less – not more than $5 billion, it would come to the same destination points to which South Stream would go.”

“That’s why we ask the same question, speaking eye-to-eye with our partners, and we are still waiting for an answer.”

“If this is a way to exert pressure, not a commercial project, then of course serious questions arise about how we should build our relations today, let alone in the future.”

Yanukovych used the Davos platform to sign a deal with Azeri President Ilham Aliyev to import liquefied natural gas to a planned Ukrainian terminal aimed at reducing the country’s heavy dependence on Russian gas. The memorandum did not specify volumes for the terminal to be opened in 2015. He also signed a memorandum on cooperation in shipping Azeri oil across Ukraine.

Yanukovych said Ukraine would ship the first million tons of Caspian Sea oil to Europe via the pipeline this year, thus ending its use to export Russian crude to the Mediterranean.

“The Odessa-Brody pipeline has been used in various directions. Very soon we will start working according to the original idea, delivering oil from Odessa to European countries,” he said.

Interfax news agency quoted Ukrainian officials as saying the deal covered deliveries of up to 4 million tons a year.

Aliyev, who spoke at the same panel, said he was under no pressure from Russia to shun the Nabucco pipeline, seen as a key European Union’s attempt to reduce reliance on Russian.
(Therearenosunglasses's weblogs)

TOO MANY PIPELINES. (Troppe pipeline)

Europe may not be able to sustain all its proposed gas supply pipelines but will need to build at least some soon to ensure security of supply in the latter half of this decade.

Scarred by the Russia-Ukraine gas row of 2009, which cut about a fifth of Europe's supply in mid winter, major European gas consumers plan many pipelines to promising producing regions in central Asia, North Africa and the Middle East.

With China competing to woo producers, Europe will likely struggle to secure enough gas to fill all the new connections and would be unable to use it all if they do get filled.

"If every project that is discussed is built then there will be way too much supply, so I think the best projects will be developed and marginal ones delayed, or not built," said Graham Freedman, a senior analyst at UK consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

"But I don't think anybody doubts the fact that Europe is going to need more gas because domestic production is falling. It is going to be an importer for many years to come," he said.

Wood Mackenzie forecasts that gas demand in the European Union, Turkey and former Yugoslav states could rise from 551 bcm in 2010 to 653 billion cubic metres in 2020.

Under what it says is a bullish demand scenario, this would leave a supply shortfall of 125 bcm by the end of the decade unless far more is produced at home or brought in from overseas.

But if all major new pipelines were built and filled to capacity, gas flows to Europe by 2020 could far outstrip demand.

Since the Russia crisis, Europe has been comfortably supplied with gas for power generation, heating and industry through existing pipelines and an increasing number of liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers. The Medgaz link from Algeria to Spain could further increase supplies into the Iberian Peninisula by 8 bcm/year, if the repeatedly delayed pipeline opens this winter.

The 55 bcm/year Nord Stream pipeline under the Baltic Sea is expected to bring more Russian gas to western Europe, bypassing Ukraine by the end of next year.

Russia is pushing on with its South Stream project to bring up to another 63 bcm under the Black Sea via the Balkans.

The European Union is also championing the 31 bcm alternative Nabucco plan that would bring Caspian and Middle East gas via Turkey, excluding Russia.

But Italy also hopes that its projects TAP and ITGI for around 10 bcm capacity each can compete for mainly Caspian gas market share with South Stream and Nabucco, giving it more options via the "Southern Corridor" to Europe.

In all, the maximum capacity of these pipelines, some of which were conceived prior to the economic crisis which brought a gas price slump, adds up to 177 bcm to Europe's supply.

Pipeline supplies would also face competition from liquefied natural gas (LNG), which has become much more readily available because of a surge in North American shale gas production, with unconventional gas finds in Europe posing another threat to both types of external supplier.

"Some projects make sense from a security of supply perspective, because of the diversification of gas sources that they would bring," said Nigel Harris of UK consultancy Kingston Energy. "But with plenty of gas available from existing sources, there's no commercial benefit from diversification."

Nord Stream and South Stream are just additional routes for Russian-controlled gas flows, he said, while alternative sources from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Iran remain uncertain.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) thinks global gas demand may recover from 2011, but it still expects supply to outstrip demand until 2020..

Some gas suppliers are more optimistic, pointing to buoyant demand in the Middle East, China and India which could leave less gas for Europe. Phillipe Boisseau, president of France's Total Gas & Power, told the recent European Autumn Gas Conference in Berlin that the "supply bubble will disappear in three years."

Speakers agreed that current gas prices in consuming countries would not support all Europe's proposed supply lines, although they expect demand for power generation to contine to rise as Europe looks to back up its increasing wind power capacity with gas-fired plants.
(FuturesPros.com via Reuters)

ALL AT THE ZAR COURT. (Tutti alla corte dello zar)

Alcune compagnie energetiche tedesche hanno espresso il desiderio di partecipare al progetto South Stream. E’ quanto emerge dall’incontro Berlusconi-Putin di domenica scorsa. Ecco che le ali del Nabucco sono sempre meno dorate e, se le cose continueranno per questa china, il progetto energetico europeo non andrà lontano. Nabucco è infatti il nome dato al gasdotto che dal mar Caspio dovrebbe rifornire i Balcani fino all’Italia e all’Austria. Lo scopo della sua costruzione è eminentemente geopolitico: estendere l’influenza “occidentale” sui Balcani e sul Caucaso. La sua progettazione è precedente all’adesione all’Unione Europea dei Balcani orientali e si profila quale strumento di persuasione a restare in orbita europea per i Paesi che vedono procedere a rilento il loro percorso di integrazione. Nabucco nasce come concorrente del South Stream russo poiché, si ragionò giustamente, dipendere dalla Russia nel settore dei rifornimenti energetici significherebbe perdere larghe fette di sovranità: come criticare la diplomazia di Mosca nel campo dei diritti umani se dal Cremlino controllano i rubinetti del gas? Come osteggiare la politica estera di Mosca, le guerre in Cecenia e in Georgia, l’assalto all’Artico, le ingerenze in Ucraina, se si diventa servi del gas russo? E ancora: come affermare l’autonomia dell’Unione di fronte a un duplice vassallaggio, militare-americano da un lato e russo-energetico dall’altro?

Ma sul Nabucco si è investito poco e male. L’Italia e l’Eni sono state le prime a capire che non c’era di che ingrassarsi col progetto europeo e si son subito vendute al “rivale” russo. Eni e Gazprom diventano così partners per la costruzione del South Stream con tanti saluti all’europeo Nabucco. L’Italia, che con difficoltà si annovera tra le democrazie compiute, predilige fare affari con Putin e Gheddafi. La torta russa piace non solo agli italiani, ecco che la Edf (Electricité de France) entra nella joint-venture con Gazprom ed Eni. Lo scorso giugno 2010 Nicolas Sarkozy vola a San Pietroburgo alla corte dello zar per sottoscrivere l’affare.

Ora anche i tedeschi vogliono partecipare all’abbuffata. “Benone” esclama Berlusconi in visita presso l’amico Putin, in questo modo sarà possibile riscuotere l’interesse dell’Unione Europea finora rimasta fredda nei confronti del South Stream. I tedeschi, va detto, già sono partner di Gazprom per la costruzione del gasdotto North Stream, quello che aggira repubbliche baltiche e Polonia (ree di scarso amore verso lo zar) e va dritto in Germania; quello sottoscritto a inizio anni Duemila dall’allora cancelliere Schroeder, attratto dall’oro azzurro russo, poi divenuto dirigente Gazprom e responsabile proprio del consorzio North Stream; quello per cui in Polonia si stracciano le vesti gridando a un nuovo patto Molotov-Ribbentrop.

Rumors indicano nella Basf il nome dell’azienda energetica tedesca pronta a unirsi ai tre moschettieri Gazprom, Eni, Edf. Un’ulteriore mazzata al progetto Nabucco per il quale la Banca europea per gli Investimenti (Bei) e quella per la Ricostruzione e Sviluppo (Bers) hanno appena stanziato altri 4 miliardi di euro, segno che l’affrancamento energetico dell’Europa dalla Russia è considerato prioritario da Bruxelles che si trova a dover gestire tre serpi in seno assai velenose.

Una nota finale: il Nabucco parte dall’Iran, via Tabriz ed Erzurum. Proprio ad Erzurum raccoglie il braccio che s’avvia da Baku e passa per Tiblisi. Poi va verso Ankara, Istanbul e l’Europa. Il governo italiano si è sempre mostrato molto duro nei confronti del regime degli Ayatollah, ai limiti dell’ottusità, e si è detto favorevole all’intervento militare a stelle e strisce mentre, per ragioni che dopo questo lungo discorso parranno ovvie, non ha mai detto “beh” sul massacro in Cecenia.

I partners del Nabucco, inoltre, stanno tutti cambiando casacca: L’Azerbaijan si è vincolato con Mosca, e ben poco della sua produzione resterà a Bruxelles, ma il Cremlino ha promesso protezione e denari in quantità al regime di Baku. Il Turkmenistan, altra dittatura, è da pochissimo entrata in affari con Eni e Gazprom e punta a rifornire la Cina più che l’Europa. L’Iran -grazie anche all’intervento americano- è assai indietro nello sviluppo dei suoi giacimenti. Ecco allora che non resta che prendersi in faccia l’ironia di Putin: “Che Dio li aiuti -ha dichiarato- il Nabucco è un tubo vuoto e il consorzio che lo sta sviluppando (l’austriaca Omw, l’ungherese Mol, la rumena Transgaz, la Bulgargas, la tedesca Rwe e la turca Botas. ndr) non fornirà nemmeno un metro cubo di gas fino al 2018 mentre fra un anno il South Stream sarà pronto”. Con buona pace della democrazia europea.
(East Journal)

ENI'S BETRAYAL. (Il tradimento dell'Eni)

Europe should unite efforts to secure natural gas by linking the South Stream and Nabucco pipelines, officials at Italian energy giant ENI said.

European leaders should increase investments in infrastructure needed to secure "new sources" of natural gas from locations such as Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Africa, said Paolo Scaroni, the chief executive at Italian energy giant ENI.

Scaroni told delegates at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston that diversity was the key to the global energy sector of the future.

"In the decade ahead, and probably well beyond that, the world energy scene will be increasingly dominated by the consumption of gas and the supply of gas," he said.

Scaroni said European leaders would benefit from linking rival pipeline projects Nabucco and South Stream, Russia's ITAR-Tass news agency adds.

"If only all partners decided to link the two, we would reduce operating costs and increase efficiency," he said.

A troubled relationship between gas host nation Ukraine and supplier Russia prompted a race to diversify the European energy sector.

The European Commission recently allocated billions of dollars to fund the construction of the Nabucco gas pipeline to move non-Russian gas through Turkey.

Moscow, meanwhile, aims to avoid Ukrainian territory with its South Stream gas pipeline through the Balkans.

ENI is a major partner in the South Stream project along with Russian gas giant Gazprom.

(UPI)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Russia is not considering a proposal to combine part of its South Stream gas project with the Western-backed Nabucco pipeline, Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko said on Monday.

"We are not discussing such issues," Shmatko said.

Shmatko commented on a recent suggestion by Italy's Eni SpA, Gazprom's partner in the South Stream gas pipeline project, that combining some sections of the pipelines would cut costs and boost profits.

Eni CEO Paolo Scaroni was reported to say at a Cambridge Energy Research Associates conference in Houston on Wednesday that if all the partners decided to merge the two pipelines for part of the route, "we would reduce investments, operational costs and increase overall returns."

Shmatko also said Russia welcomed Europe's desire to diversify gas supply routes but did not consider the South Stream and Nabucco as rival projects.

Both South Stream and Western-backed Nabucco aim to supply natural gas to Southern and Central Europe. The South Stream project is designed to deliver up to 63 billion cubic meters of Central Asian and Russian natural gas under the Black Sea while Nabucco is intended to pump 31 billion cu m of natural gas from the Caspian region via Turkey.

Russian experts, however, are skeptical about the prospects of merging the two pipelines as Nabucco was originally designed to cut Europe's dependence on Russian natural gas deliveries.

(RIA Novosti)

NO MORE GAS CRISES? (Niente più crisi del gas?)

Ukraine's President-elect Viktor Yanukovych is expected to reach out to Russia as well as the West to safeguard Ukraine's position as an important energy transit country.

Yanukovych won Sunday's presidential election duel against Orange Revolution hero Yulia Tymoshenko and is now expected to reform the Ukrainian gas sector. Nearly 80 percent of Russian gas exports to Europe are sent through Ukraine, satisfying one-fifth of the continent's demand.

Alexander Rahr, an analyst with the Berlin-based German Council on Foreign Relations, met Yanukovych at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Rahr said the Ukrainian leader told him about his plan to hand the Ukrainian gas network, which is in dire need of modernization, to a consortium comprised of Ukrainian transit companies [first of all, Naftogaz], Russian state-controlled energy giant Gazprom and Western European energy companies.

"Yanukovych does not want to give up Ukraine's role as an important transit hub," Rahr told UPI in a telephone interview Wednesday.

The balancing act is intended to please Russia as well as the West, after the confrontational course steered by Kiev and Moscow in the past years only damaged Ukraine's role as a reliable transit country.

Current President Viktor Yushchenko, who led Ukraine into two gas crises with Russia, was eliminated in the first round of voting.

In the aftermath of the first gas conflict between Ukraine and Russia, two major Russian-European gas pipeline projects -- Nord Stream in Germany and South Stream in southeastern Europe -- were jumpstarted in a bid to bypass Ukraine and deliver Russian gas unilaterally to Europe.

Yanukovych is eager to at least render insignificant South Stream, which is not as far advanced as Nord Stream, for which most of the pipes have already been delivered. Reports say South Stream could almost halve Ukraine's transit fees -- a disastrous outlook for the notoriously bankrupt country.

Rahr said the gas relations between Russia and Ukraine will thus remain highly political.

"Ukraine can't afford to pay the bills for Russian gas," which easily amount to $1 billion per month, Rahr said.

That's why Kiev is expected to please the Kremlin on other fronts, such as giving up plans to join NATO or allowing for the Russian Black Sea fleet to remain in Sevastopol.

"If that happens, then Ukraine will get the same price for gas as Belarus," which is on friendlier terms with Russia, and thus enjoys below-market prices.

Yet Yanukovych will also have to please the West to counter fears that he is turning his back on Europe.

While inviting European companies into the pipeline consortium, he is expected to further privatize the Ukrainian economy and include Western firms in that process.

"And he won't be able to question the plan to eventually join the European Union," Rahr told UPI. "That's where the Ukrainians want to go, because it's a well-functioning economic circle, and one that promises prosperity. In that regard, Russia is no alternative."
(Energy Daily)

AS USUAL. (Come al solito)

Russia has warned the European Union it may cut its crude oil supplies via the Druzhba oil pipeline connecting Siberian oil fields with Europe to Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary due to demands by Ukraine for higher transit fees, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said Monday.

Hungarian oil and gas company MOL Nyrt said it received official notification from Russian oil pipeline operator OAO Transneft its transit spat with Ukraine's state oil pipeline operator Ukrtransnafta could lead to a cut of oil supplies to Eastern Europe Jan. 1.

"According to our knowledge Ukraine has asked for an increase of transit payments by Russia for [crude oil] shipments as of next year," Fico told a news conference.

"Therefore Russia has warned the EU and us about possible disruptions of crude oil shipments from as early as Jan. 1," Fico added.

The possible crude oil supply disruption is "due to [a] payments dispute between these two countries," Fico said, the same as last winter when Russia shut down natural gas shipments to the European Union via Ukraine.

"But unlike the gas crisis of last January, any possible oil shipment disruptions can be covered by [crude oil] supplies via alternative routes," Fico said.

Russian crude oil supplies account for over 90% of Slovakia's domestic demand. The eastern EU country can get alternative oil supplies other than Russian shipments via rail, Slovak industry minister Lubomir Jahnatek said.

Slovakia has crude oil and fuel reserves to cover more than 94 days of its domestic demand.

"These reserves are split about 50%-50% between crude oil and oil products," Fico said.

The Czech Republic has also prepared itself for the risk of an oil supply cut from Russia by maintaining reserves that can cover the local demand for more than 90 days, Czech Industry Ministry spokesman Tomas Bartovsky said.

"We went through similar situations before in 2008 and 2007 and therefore we're prepared," Bartovsky said.

Czechs are less vulnerable than their Slovak neighbors, since Czech oil refineries can be switched fully to crude oil supplies from the country's alternative pipeline, known as IKL. The pipeline connects the Czech Republic with the Adriatic sea port of Trieste in northern Italy and delivers crude oil from the Persian Gulf region. The IKL pipeline covers 30% of local demand.

"IKL is capable of covering the entire local demand if necessary but it would require securing shipment slot contracts in the pipeline system," Bartovsky said, adding that ramping up the IKL oil shipments would take some time.

Hungary's crude reserves are sufficient to supply the country for 90 days of average consumption, MOL said in a release.

"MOL is prepared to handle the situation; following a possible halt of supplies via the Druzhba pipeline, the reverse of flows on the Adriatic pipeline would become our prime task, which would take some 25-30 days," MOL said.

"Even if the row escalated between Russia and the Ukraine, Hungary's crude supply wouldn't be at threat," MOL added.

For several months from late spring through late summer of 2008, Russia disrupted its oil shipments to the Czech Republic and Slovakia over a dispute concerning transit fees between Moscow and Kiev.

"However, unlike last year's natural gas shipment crises, any possible crude oil shipment disruptions are more easily manageable and there is no need for concerns over insufficient fuel supplies on [the Czech] market," Bartovsky said.
(OilAndGasEurasia)