Pipelineistan: Francesco Rossi's blog.

INTERNAL MARKET FIRST. (Prima il mercato interno)

2012-02-06T22:16:00.003+01:00

Gazprom said on Saturday it could not pump additional gas to Western Europe amid a cold snap, after EU officials and energy firms said the Russian giant's deliveries had dropped in several states.

"Gazprom at the moment cannot satisfy the additional volumes that our Western European partners are requesting," the company's deputy chairman Alexander Kruglov said at a meeting with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, according to Russian news agencies.

Putin told Gazprom at the meeting that the demands of Europe had to be respected but the firm's priority was to supply consumers in Russia, which is also enduring a spell of very cold weather.

"I ask you to make efforts to meet the demands of our foreign partners, bearing in mind that the prime task of Russian energy firms and Gazprom in particular is to satisfy the internal demand in Russia," said Putin.

"This is the priority task."

Kruglov said that Gazprom was carrying out deliveries in line with its agreements with European states but that it was unable to pump additional gas that had been requested.

He said there had been a reduction of 10 percent in gas volumes delivered on previous days but that now deliveries had returned to their normal levels.

The European Commission said Friday that Austria, Bulgaria, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania and Slovakia had each registered drops in gas supplies.

But a spokeswoman for EU energy commissioner Guenther Oettinger, Marlene Holzer, had said that Gazprom contractual small print with European buyers "allows for a certain flexibility."

German energy giant RWE said it was currently receiving 30 percent less gas from Russia than is foreseen in contracts.

"Supply for clients is however assured, notably due to well filled stocks," a spokesman said, adding there would be no problem in the days to come.

Its main rival E.ON, which obtains 27 percent of its gas annually from Gazprom, said it was "well-armed against reductions in supply from Gazprom", even if demand was high for a long period, due to high stock levels.

Russian gas amounted to 33 percent of Germany's supplies in 2010, its main source of gas imports ahead of Norway with 29 percent.

The economy ministry of the Netherlands meanwhile said the country produced sufficient gas itself and had sufficient reserves "to face all the needs".

"We have other possibilities of supply," said spokeswoman Esther Benschop, saying the country had "great flexibility" in gas.

Austria on Friday had logged a 30 percent fall in Russian deliveries and Italy had seen deliveries fall by 24 percent. Deliveries to Italy's gas network Snam Rete Gas were down 28.9 percent on Friday.
(JakartaGlobe)

KAZAKH OIL WORKERS PROTEST.(Gli operai del settore petrolifero kazako protestano)

2011-12-20T12:37:00.005+01:00

Holding signs with the slogan, “Don’t Shoot the People,” hundreds of oil workers in the city of Aktau in western Kazakhstan protested today against a recent police crackdown on striking workers, the New York Times reported. Clashes with police on Dec. 16 and Dec. 17 caused the deaths of at least 14 striking workers and wounded dozens more.

Thousands of oilmen had been on strike in the Mangistau region since May, demanding wage increases, Reuters reported. On Friday in the city of Zhanaozen, police fired on protesters in the central square, killing at least 13, the New York Times reported.

According to the New York Times:

The workers in Zhanaozen appear to have grown angry when officials began installing holiday decorations for a government-sponsored children’s party, which they felt was a ruse to remove them from the square, witnesses said. Officials said the police were forced to open fire after they came under attack by “hooligans,” some armed with stones and gasoline bombs.

Interior Minister Kalmukhambet Kasymov said the police had no choice but to fire their weapons, The Associated Press reported. “Nobody specifically gave the order to open fire in that situation,” he told the AP. “Every police officer took the decision themselves. When they take a weapon off you, there is no need for an order to be issued.”

After the clash in the square, Kasymov said, the crowd raged throughout the city, setting fire to the mayor’s office, a hotel, the UzenMunaiGas oil company headquarters and the local branch of the governing Nur Otan party.

On Saturday, one person was killed when police fired on several hundred protesters who blocked railroad tracks in the nearby city of Shetpe, the New York Times reported.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe chairperson-in-office, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Audronius Azubalis, expressed dismay at the way the situation was handled, the AP reported. “Any action to control crowds by law enforcement should be proportionate and in line with international human rights standards,” he said in a statement.
On Dec. 17, Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev declared a three-week state of emergency for Zhanaozen, the AP reported.
(GlobalPost)

Qui il link al sito dei manifestanti Campaign Kazakhstan.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE = 1-0

2011-11-08T23:04:00.004+01:00

Entrerà in funzione oggi, martedì 8 novembre, North Stream, la pipeline che porterà il gas russo in Germania attraverso il Baltico. Dmitrij Medvedev e Angela Merkel hanno “accolto” quel gas in Germania, a Lubmin, girando il rubinetto che gli ha aperto la rete europea. Alla cerimonia hanno preso parte anche il primo ministro francese, François Fillon, il collega olandese Mark Rutte e il commissario europeo all’Energia, Gunther Oettinger: Francia e Olanda sono gli altri due Paesi che aderiscono al consorzio, diviso tra Gazprom, le tedesche Wintershall e E.On Ruhrgas, l’olandese Gasunie e la francese Gdf Suez.

“I consumatori europei potranno avere fino a 55 miliardi di metri cubi di gas dalla Russia nei prossimi anni con il lancio della seconda condotta del North Stream – ha affermato Medvedev in una conferenza stampa congiunta con la Merkel a Berlino – il gas naturale russo e l’elettricità prodotta con essa garantiranno una fornitura energetica stabile ai consumatori del continente e aumenteranno la loro sicurezza energetica”. Il primo tratto pomperà 27,5 miliardi di metri di cubi di gas all’anno, circa la metà di quella che sarà la capacità definitiva della struttura. North Stream parte da Vyborg, nei pressi di San Pietroburgo, e termina a Lubmin, in Germania.

North Stream è lungo 1.224 chilometri e ha ora una capacità di trasporto di 27,5 miliardi di metri cubi all’anno, che diventeranno 55 con la costruzione di una seconda linea, attesa per l’autunno 2012. Il monopolio russo Gazprom ha già siglato contratti di fornitura a lungo termine con diversi Paesi europei, inclusa la Germania, la Danimarca, il Belgio, l’Olanda, la Francia e la Gran Bretagna. In attesa che South Stream colleghi invece la Russia all’Europa meridionale, sempre con l’obiettivo di ridurre i volumi del gas russo – finora l’80% – esportato in Europa attraverso l’Ucraina.
(East Journal)

TYMOSHENKO, THE BIG BLUFF. (Tymoshenko, il grande bluff)

2011-10-20T17:26:00.003+02:00

Far fuori gli avversari politici mettendoli dietro le sbarre non è certo il metodo migliore per gestire il potere ottenuto in maniera democratica. Eppure è quello che sta succedendo in Ucraina con il caso di Yulia Tymoshenko, ex primo ministro e leader dell’opposizione che è stata condannata a sette anni di galera per abuso di potere.

Al presidente Victor Yanukovich la dura sentenza serve anche per ottenere una piattaforma giuridica per tentare di ottenere la revisione dei contratti del 2009, obiettivamente svantaggiosi per il paese. Si spiega in questa maniera la reazione russa, con il Cremlino che sia durante il procedimento sia alla sua conclusione si è schierato a favore dell’imputata, sottolineando la validità degli accordi raggiunti tra l’eroina della rivoluzione arancione e Vladimir Putin due anni fa.
I rapporti tra Kiev e Mosca sono sempre passati attraverso le pipelines: è l’oro blu a unire o dividere, a seconda dei momenti. E i protagonisti di queste storie sono sempre gli stessi. In Ucraina Yulia Tymoshenko, ex principessa del gas che con il suo gruppo ha gestito per anni il traffico con la Russia e che prima è passata al ministero dell’Energia poi alla seggiola di premier; Dmitri Firtash, oligarca impegnato nell’energia e non solo, nemico giurato della bionda pasionaria; Yuri Boiko, attuale ministro dell’Energia, ex ceo a Naftogaz e uno dei suggeritori di Yanukovich, da anni schierato con l’ala conservatrice uscita dal blocco dell’ex presidente Leonid Kuchma cui appartengono gli altri magnati dell’industria ucraina, guidati da Rinat Akhmetov.

In Russia chi controlla Gazprom, cioè il Cremlino, è il vero gestore delle relazioni che toccano economia e politica: Putin impera. E se l’ormai scomparso Victor Chernomyrdin dopo essere stato per anni il numero uno di Gazprom era stato mandato a fare l’ambasciatore in Ucraina lo scorso decennio il motivo era chiaro. Politica e gas: gli intrecci al Cremlino sono come quelli alla Bankova e interpretarli non è sempre cosa semplice: ma è chiaro che il processo Tymoshenko si inserisce nel canovaccio dei duelli per il potere.
L’Europa in questa contesa fa da spettatrice: non ha danari per intraprendere un progetto consistente per la ristrutturazione del gas ucraino e rischia di lasciare via libera alla Russia che, avviato Nordstream, ha ora Southstream in progetto. Il sistema di trasporto ucraino va modernizzato e Gazprom vuole metterci sopra le mani, sul modello bielorusso (lo stesso dicasi per Naftogaz). Bruxelles si allarma per la Tymoshenko, ma non può permettersi di abbandonare i negoziati sull’accordo di associazione che dovrebbe essere firmato entro l’anno con Kiev.
L’errore europeo è stato quello di non capire che la rivoluzione del 2004 era un bluff. Gli ucraini l’anno capito da tempo, basta andare a guardarsi i sondaggi sul gradimento della Lady di ferro, peggiori di quelli di Yanukovich. Ora rischia di essere troppo tardi.
(Limes)

RUSSIA AND THE KOREAN - GAS - UNITY. (La Russia e l'unità coreana ... del gas)

2011-08-16T11:17:00.009+02:00

South Korean and Russian press are reporting on talks between officials from Russia and South and North Korea on construction of a gas pipeline along the Korean Peninsula.

South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan, just back from a visit to Moscow, said on August 12 that Gazprom and the Russian Foreign Ministry are in contact with North Korean officials about the possibility of building a pipeline from Russia to South Korea via North Korea.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has been quoted as saying North Korea was "positive" about the idea.

Gazprom and South Korean company KOGAS signed an agreement for Russian gas in 2008, but
that deal envisioned Russia shipping liquefied natural gas from Sakhalin Island.
(Rferl)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

North Korea says it has received a message from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev seeking cooperation on the construction of a gas pipeline from Russia, through North Korea to South Korea.

Pyongyang’s official KCNA news agency said Monday the message also proposed connecting railways and power lines across the three countries. It said the message was delivered to mark the anniversary of the end of Japanese colonial rule on the Korean peninsula.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was quoted last week saying North Korean officials had responded favorably during initial discussions about the pipeline project. South Korea has contracted to purchase huge amounts of natural gas from Russia later in this decade, and a pipeline through North Korea would substantially reduce delivery costs.

For North Korea, the deal presents an opportunity to acquire vital hard currency by charging transit fees. However South Korea has been reluctant to enter into similar deals in the past because of its often hostile relationship with Pyongyang. Any such system could be disrupted during a future dispute.

KCNA quoted Mr. Medvedev’s message saying Russia is willing to boost cooperation with North Korea “in all directions of mutual concern.” The message said these included a “three-party plan” in the fields of gasification, energy and railway construction.

There have already been preliminary discussions of a rail line that would run from South Korea and connect to the trans-Siberian railroad, making it possible to travel by train from Seoul to Europe.

(Voice of America)

RUSSIAN CUCUMBERS. (Cetrioli alla russa)

2011-06-03T14:03:00.006+02:00

Dunque dopo la mucca pazza, la Sars, l’aviaria e la suina è arrivato il cetriolo killer. Le vittime causate da questa variante del batterio Escherichia Coli sono certamente tante, sempre troppe. Tuttavia, anche stavolta, il rischio è che a livello mediatico venga instillata la psicosi collettiva della pandemia. Insomma, abili operazioni di spin a vantaggio dei soliti noti, case farmaceutiche in testa.

Nel frattempo accadono due cose. Anzitutto i paesi europei si scannano come al solito tra loro, accusandosi l’un l’altro d’aver dato inizio al contagio. Zapatero ha già chiesto a Berlino un risarcimento di almeno 200 milioni di euro per il danno economico d’immagine provocato dalle insinuazioni tedesche. Dal canto suo la Russia, e questo è il secondo aspetto rilevante, ha pensato bene di chiudere temporaneamente le proprie frontiere agli ortaggi comunitari. Proprio così, a tutti gli ortaggi, dal momento che non si è ancora sicuri dove risieda effettivamente questo batterio killer.

Ovviamente a Bruxelles si è gridato al sacrilegio. Frederic Vincent, portavoce del commissario alla salute dell'Unione Europea s’è affrettato a definirla una “misura sproporzionata”. Proporzionatissimo era invece il blocco alle importazioni di pollame proveniente dalla Russia deciso dalla Commissione Europea ai tempi dell’aviaria. Due pesi e due misure. Ma si sa, noi europei abbiamo la memoria corta, anzi cortissima.

Il fatto è che sul piatto della contesa non ci sono solamente gli ortaggi. Anche per i poderosi stomaci russi i cetrioli possono essere particolarmente indigesti. Ma ancora più indigeste possono essere le liberalizzazioni energetiche, come quella contenuta nel “terzo pacchetto” Ue che prevede la separazione tra produzione e distribuzione. Unbundling è il termine tecnico.

Angry è invece stata la reazione di Putin al vertice energetico Russia-Ue dello scorso febbraio. Il terzo pacchetto è senza dubbio un pugno al ventre delle ambizioni di Mosca di tener ancorato a sé, per mezzo dei tubi, il Vecchio Continente. Per il momento inutili i tentativi del premier russo di far leva sugli accordi energetici siglati con i singoli stati dell’Unione, così come inutile è apparso il tentativo di convincere Barroso del rischio di un aumento dei prezzi affidando le reti di distribuzione a piccole compagnie alternative a Gazprom.

È noto che tra Putin e Barroso non scorra buon sangue. Alcuni file di Wikileaks non fanno che confermare quanto già risultava evidente ai tempi della crisi georgiana del 2008, quando il presidente della Commissione Europea minacciò di cessare l’acquisto europeo di gas russo se Mosca non avesse interrotto immediatamente le operazioni militari. Com’era prevedibile il messaggio entrò da un orecchio di Putin ed uscì subito dall’altro suo orecchio: in attesa dei gasdotti made in Usa che bypasserebbero il territorio della Federazione, per l’Ue il gas russo è semplicemente irrinunciabile.

Al contrario l’unbundling è per Putin una minaccia seria. Una misura che rischia veramente di allentare i cordoni di Mosca sull’Unione Europea. Un fattore di disturbo per la politica russa del “cortile di casa” est europeo.

Perciò Il blocco alle importazioni di ortaggi europei non può che essere interpretato anche come una ritorsione alle misure energetiche decise da Bruxelles. Una vendetta, che come si sa, è un piatto che va servito freddo. Senza l’ausilio di un fornello a gas.
Proprio come i cetrioli alla russa.

Ingredienti : cetrioli - sale - pepe - olio - aceto - prezzemolo - crema di latte.

Mondate i cetrioli e ritagliateli in fette finissime. Raccogliete queste fettine in una piccola insalatiera e cospargetele con un po' di sale fino, per privare il cetriolo della molta acqua di vegetazione che contiene.
Dopo una mezz'ora prendete un po' di fette alla volta, strizzatele e spandetele sopra un tovagliolo che poi arrotolerete pian piano.
Le fettine così rinchiuse si asciugano perfettamente.
Dopo un altro po' di tempo accomodate le fettine nei piattini da antipasto, conditele con pochissimo sale, pepe, olio, aceto e prezzemolo trito, aggiungendo una cucchiaiata o due di crema di latte sciolta.
Mettete i piattini preparati in frigo per almeno un'ora, affinché i cetrioli possano essere serviti freddissimi.

(Pubblicato su 24Emilia)

AT FULL SPEED! (A tutto gas!)

2011-04-20T15:25:00.004+02:00

Il Primo Ministro slovacco Iveta Radicova e il suo omologo ungherese Viktor Orban hanno firmato oggi a Bratislava un accordo internazionale su un collegamento gas transfrontaliero. Un accordi di programma era stato sottoscritto già il 19 Gennaio scorso dai Sottosegretari dei due Ministeri dell‘Economia, Martin Chren per la Slovacchia e Pal Kovacs per l‘Ungheria, e successivamente approvato dal Governo slovacco il 26 Gennaio.

Il collegamento tra Slovacchia ed Ungheria rientra nel più ampio progetto di corridoio nord-sud del gas, composto di diversi singoli progetti interconnessi. Il corridoio nord-sud si connetterà ai terminali di gas in Polonia e Croazia, e quindi il gasdotto attraverserà tutti i Paesi del Gruppo di Visegrad (V4), dunque anche Slovacchia e Ungheria. La Slovacchia sta i questo modo cercando di ridurre i rischi associati a possibili interruzioni delle forniture di gas dalla Russia, cosa che portò nel Gennaio 2008 ad una crisi del gas che mise a rischio non solo il riscaldamento delle abitazioni, ma anche la produzione di non poche aziende.

L’operatore slovacco Eustream di trasporto del gas ha già avviato colloqui con la sua società partner ungherese Foldgazszalito Rt per la redazione del rispettivo accordo commerciale e dettagli tecnici. Analogo accordo sarà fatto con la Polonia, con il cui operatore di rete GAZ-System è stata firmata una lettera di intenti pochi giorni fa.

L’accordo di oggi significherà un maggior grado di indipendenza in termini di sicurezza energetica della Slovacchia, nonché quello di tutta l’Unione Europea, ha affermato il Premier slovacco Iveta Radicova dopo la firma.

Secondo la Radicova, ci sono altre aree nelle quali i due Paesi possono migliorare. «Abbiamo sollevato il problema del collegamento delle reti elettriche, e abbiamo concordato con il Premier [Orban] che porteremo avanti un accordo in questo settore simile a quello del gas», ha detto, specificando che lo ritiene un obiettivo strategico. Tra gli altri temi discussi, la prevista ripresa dei lavori di costruzione della strada che collega la R4 nella Slovacchia orientale con l‘Ungheria. «L’Ungheria ha deciso di riprendere i piani per la superstrada tra Kosice e Miskolc», ha detto Orban, aggiungendo che intende trovare un accordo con la Slovacchia anche per il nuovo ponte nei pressi della città di confine di Komarno (regione di Nitra).
(Buongiorno Slovacchia)

RETURNING TO OIL. (Tornare al petrolio)

2011-03-17T14:57:00.003+01:00

The devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan will temporarily take pressure off of tightening global oil supplies as the world's third-largest oil consumer works to rebuild its shaken economy, energy analysts said Monday.

But the disaster won't curb its energy appetite for long. Analysts say Japan will likely boost imports of coal, natural gas, diesel and other refined fuels in coming weeks.

"Demand for petroleum products is going to soar," analyst and trader Stephen Schork said.

Benchmark West Texas Intermediate for April delivery added three cents to settle at US$101.19 a barrel Monday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It had fallen below US$99 earlier in the session.

In London Brent crude lost 17 cents to settle at US$113.67 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Oil prices had been surging in recent weeks because of events in North Africa, including unrest in Libya forced that country to shut down its oil fields, which had been producing about 1.6 million barrels of crude per day.

The squeeze on world supplies and concern that uprisings could spread across the Middle East have helped push oil prices about 24 per cent higher in the past few weeks.

Friday's earthquake and tsunami in Japan pulled markets in the opposite direction. Japan imports and consumes more than four million barrels of oil a day. Analysts say at least some of that will be reduced as steel plants, auto manufacturers and three of five major oil refineries temporarily shut down.

Some parts of northeastern Japan are still without power, and authorities are trying to stabilize damaged nuclear plants that have been taken off-line.

Japan has increasingly relied on nuclear power as it focused on weaning itself off of petroleum, like other industrialized countries. Of the total 22.3 quadrillion Btu Japan consumed in 2008, 11 per cent was generated by nuclear power plants. The U.S. consumed more than four times as much power, about eight per cent of it from nuclear energy.
Analysts think Japan will compensate for the shutdown of its nuclear reactors by relying more heavily on traditional fossil fuels. It can choose from a variety of sources. Most of Japan's energy is produced by power plants fired by coal, most of it from Australia. It burned 37,500 tons of coal in 2009. Japan also consumed 3.3 trillion cubic feet of liquefied natural gas that year, imported mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia.

Japan also operates natural gas-burning generators and a number of aging, oil-fired plants that can be cranked up during peak times. The Japanese may favour using more oil instead of natural gas in the short term, according to Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. Lynch said there are more tankers available to deliver crude than LNG and more dedicated facilities in Japan that can accept oil imports.

"Oil is much easier to import," Lynch said. He added that Japan could boost crude imports by about 300,000 barrels per day while its energy infrastructure is hampered by the loss of nuclear power.

Japan's trade minister said Monday that the government will release enough oil from the country's reserves to cover three days of demand, according to Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.
Japan imports most of its oil from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Analysts say Japan will try to tap those sources for more oil, and it will look to the U.S. and India for more refined fuels like diesel.

"The U.S. still has a surplus of both gasoline and distillate supplies with which to meet any such upswing in export activity," energy consultant Jim Ritterbusch said.

Natural gas for April delivery gained 2.5 cents to settle at US$3.914 per 1,000 cubic feet. Earlier in the day, it climbed to the highest level in a month at US$4.053.

In other Nymex trading for April contracts, heating oil added 3.48 cents to settle at US$3.0638 a U.S. gallon (3.78 litres) and gasoline futures lost 2.74 cents to settle at US$2.9603 a gallon.
(The Western Canadian Pipeline)

THE ORIGINAL PURPOSE. (Lo scopo originale)

2011-02-09T15:27:00.006+01:00

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych clinched energy pacts with Azerbaijan on Jan. 28 and attacked Russia for plans to bypass his country in supplying gas to Europe, reviving market fears of regular spats between Moscow and Kyiv.

Markets were relieved when Yanukovych, perceived as friendlier to the Kremlin than his predecessor, Viktor Yushchenko, was elected Ukraine’s president last year.

That followed five years of disputes between the ex-Soviet neighbors, marked by mid-winter cuts in Russian gas supplies to Europe that represent a quarter of the continent’s total needs.

But Yanukovych has played a much less pro-Moscow role than expected since taking office, saying the European Union was an equally or even more important partner than Russia.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the president lashed out at new Russian pipeline projects and signed oil and gas deals with Azerbaijan to cut Ukraine’s reliance on Russia.

Yanukovych said Ukraine shared Poland’s concerns about political motives behind the Nord Stream pipeline to supply Russian gas to Western Europe along the Baltic Sea floor, bypassing central European nations.

“Another project being discussed today between Russia and Europe is the construction of South Stream. This possibility is directly related to Ukraine and here I share the position of Poland,” he said, referring to a project to pipe gas under the Black Sea to southern Europe.

Russia ships about 80 percent of its gas exports to Europe through Ukraine now and the remaining 20 percent via Belarus and says it needs the new projects to boost Europe’s energy security after disruptions in previous years.

Yanukovych said South Stream would cost $25 billion while it would cost much less to upgrade Ukraine’s pipeline system.

“Why are our partners today pretending that there is no alternative? A year ago we proposed a project that would cost five times less – not more than $5 billion, it would come to the same destination points to which South Stream would go.”

“That’s why we ask the same question, speaking eye-to-eye with our partners, and we are still waiting for an answer.”

“If this is a way to exert pressure, not a commercial project, then of course serious questions arise about how we should build our relations today, let alone in the future.”

Yanukovych used the Davos platform to sign a deal with Azeri President Ilham Aliyev to import liquefied natural gas to a planned Ukrainian terminal aimed at reducing the country’s heavy dependence on Russian gas. The memorandum did not specify volumes for the terminal to be opened in 2015. He also signed a memorandum on cooperation in shipping Azeri oil across Ukraine.

Yanukovych said Ukraine would ship the first million tons of Caspian Sea oil to Europe via the pipeline this year, thus ending its use to export Russian crude to the Mediterranean.

“The Odessa-Brody pipeline has been used in various directions. Very soon we will start working according to the original idea, delivering oil from Odessa to European countries,” he said.

Interfax news agency quoted Ukrainian officials as saying the deal covered deliveries of up to 4 million tons a year.

Aliyev, who spoke at the same panel, said he was under no pressure from Russia to shun the Nabucco pipeline, seen as a key European Union’s attempt to reduce reliance on Russian.
(Therearenosunglasses's weblogs)

SERBIA WILL PROBABLY MANTAIN OIL MONOPOLY. (Probabilmente la Serbia manterrà il monopolio petrolifero)

2010-12-16T00:50:00.009+01:00

Private oil traders want to conclude an agreement with Naftna industrija Srbije for the period of three years, according to which they would buy oil products exclusively from NIS. Those who are going to import oil products are going to face problems and limitations in terms of the necessary infrastructure and fuel storage space. It therefore seems that some sort of monopoly is going to continue after 2011 as well, because NIS and small private oil traders own in total almost 1000 filling stations, out of 1200 stations in Serbia.

The only encouraging news is that both sides, provided that they conclude this agreement, will have to report it to the Commission for the Protection of Competition and obtain its consent. Dijana Markovic‐Bajalovic, the President of the Commission, said that it all depends on whether or not this agreement could have negative impact on the competition.

“We would have to look into the matter, because at the moment we are not familiar with the details and we don’t know whether NIS and the small private oil traders actually represent 80 percent of the market or not. The Commission is competent to decide whether to approve or disapprove this agreement,” said Dijana Markovic‐Bajalovic.

The regulation of the Serbian Government, banning the import of oil derivatives, has been introduced to protect NIS from the competition and to give the refineries in Pancevo and Novi Sad time to carry out the maintenance, repair and modernisation works and to introduce the European standards in their fuel production. This regulation expires on 1 January 2011.
(Energetika.net)

TOO MANY PIPELINES. (Troppe pipeline)

2010-11-30T17:28:00.003+01:00

Europe may not be able to sustain all its proposed gas supply pipelines but will need to build at least some soon to ensure security of supply in the latter half of this decade.

Scarred by the Russia-Ukraine gas row of 2009, which cut about a fifth of Europe's supply in mid winter, major European gas consumers plan many pipelines to promising producing regions in central Asia, North Africa and the Middle East.

With China competing to woo producers, Europe will likely struggle to secure enough gas to fill all the new connections and would be unable to use it all if they do get filled.

"If every project that is discussed is built then there will be way too much supply, so I think the best projects will be developed and marginal ones delayed, or not built," said Graham Freedman, a senior analyst at UK consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

"But I don't think anybody doubts the fact that Europe is going to need more gas because domestic production is falling. It is going to be an importer for many years to come," he said.

Wood Mackenzie forecasts that gas demand in the European Union, Turkey and former Yugoslav states could rise from 551 bcm in 2010 to 653 billion cubic metres in 2020.

Under what it says is a bullish demand scenario, this would leave a supply shortfall of 125 bcm by the end of the decade unless far more is produced at home or brought in from overseas.

But if all major new pipelines were built and filled to capacity, gas flows to Europe by 2020 could far outstrip demand.

Since the Russia crisis, Europe has been comfortably supplied with gas for power generation, heating and industry through existing pipelines and an increasing number of liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers. The Medgaz link from Algeria to Spain could further increase supplies into the Iberian Peninisula by 8 bcm/year, if the repeatedly delayed pipeline opens this winter.

The 55 bcm/year Nord Stream pipeline under the Baltic Sea is expected to bring more Russian gas to western Europe, bypassing Ukraine by the end of next year.

Russia is pushing on with its South Stream project to bring up to another 63 bcm under the Black Sea via the Balkans.

The European Union is also championing the 31 bcm alternative Nabucco plan that would bring Caspian and Middle East gas via Turkey, excluding Russia.

But Italy also hopes that its projects TAP and ITGI for around 10 bcm capacity each can compete for mainly Caspian gas market share with South Stream and Nabucco, giving it more options via the "Southern Corridor" to Europe.

In all, the maximum capacity of these pipelines, some of which were conceived prior to the economic crisis which brought a gas price slump, adds up to 177 bcm to Europe's supply.

Pipeline supplies would also face competition from liquefied natural gas (LNG), which has become much more readily available because of a surge in North American shale gas production, with unconventional gas finds in Europe posing another threat to both types of external supplier.

"Some projects make sense from a security of supply perspective, because of the diversification of gas sources that they would bring," said Nigel Harris of UK consultancy Kingston Energy. "But with plenty of gas available from existing sources, there's no commercial benefit from diversification."

Nord Stream and South Stream are just additional routes for Russian-controlled gas flows, he said, while alternative sources from Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Iran remain uncertain.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) thinks global gas demand may recover from 2011, but it still expects supply to outstrip demand until 2020..

Some gas suppliers are more optimistic, pointing to buoyant demand in the Middle East, China and India which could leave less gas for Europe. Phillipe Boisseau, president of France's Total Gas & Power, told the recent European Autumn Gas Conference in Berlin that the "supply bubble will disappear in three years."

Speakers agreed that current gas prices in consuming countries would not support all Europe's proposed supply lines, although they expect demand for power generation to contine to rise as Europe looks to back up its increasing wind power capacity with gas-fired plants.
(FuturesPros.com via Reuters)

BULGARIAN MAJORITY. (Maggioranza bulgara)

2010-11-15T13:55:00.004+01:00

Russia and Bulgaria signed on Saturday accords to push ahead with the South Stream natural gas pipeline aimed to deliver gas to central and south Europe and cement Moscow's hold on European energy supplies.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his Bulgarian counterpart Boiko Borisov attended the signing of accords to set up a joint venture for the Bulgarian section of the project aimed at shipping Russian gas under the Black Sea to Europe.

'Today, a shareholder accord and a charter of the joint venture were signed. By doing this, we made one more serious step towards implementation of mutual agreements,' Putin told a news conference in Sofia where he arrived on a working visit.

The South Stream pipeline, controlled by Gazprom and Italy's ENI is planned to transport up to 63 billion cubic meters of gas to central and south Europe, bypassing countries such as Ukraine, at the end of 2015.

The link, in which French EDF is set to get a stake of no less than 10 percent, is a rival to the European Union-backed Nabucco pipeline, designed to bring gas from central Asia and the Middle East and reduce Europe's dependence on Russian deliveries.

Russia, the world's largest energy exporter, supplies Europe with a quarter of its gas needs. Analysts estimate European demand for Russian gas could rise to 30 percent by 2030.

Brussels and Moscow have been competing to sign up potential countries and suppliers for their projects.
The European Union member Bulgaria supports both projects, which are planned to run through its territory and has expressed concerns over delays in the Nabucco pipeline development.

'We are also working on the Nabucco pipeline with the same speed ... Bulgaria's interest is to transit gas through both pipelines,' Borisov told reporters.

His government, which put on review all Russian-backed energy projects last July, pledged to speed up work on South Stream after Gazprom promised to lower gas prices for Bulgaria, almost fully dependent on Russian gas supplies.

The Balkan country agreed to further accelerate work on the project in October, when Gazprom indicated South Stream could bypass it and run through Romania.

South Stream has also secured backing from Austria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Serbia and Slovenia.

Gazprom and state-controlled Bulgarian Energy Holding, which will have 50/50 stakes in the new venture, have already opened a tender to seek contractors for a feasibility study for the Bulgarian section, estimated to cost $835 million.

Bulgaria secures about 70 percent of its energy needs through imports. It gets almost all of its gas from Gazprom, its only nuclear power plant Kozloduy is Soviet-made and its only operational oil refinery is owned by Russia's LUKOIL.

Putin said LUKOIL was set to invest up to $2 billion more in its Bourgas-based oil refinery, Lukoil Neftochim.
Bulgaria and Russia also discussed the Belene nuclear power plant project, which Sofia had also put on hold due to a lack of funding and strategic partners.

Sofia has said it will push ahead with the 2,000 megawatt plant, for which it has contracted Russia's state Atomstroyexport, only if backed by strategic European investors.

Borisov has indicated Bulgaria is close to finding a partner in Germany for Belene, estimated to cost over 7 billion euros.

Bulgaria's warming towards the projects has irked Washington and Brussels which are encouraging Bulgaria to lessen its heavy energy dependence on Russia.

Belene froze last November, when German energy giant RWE , which had agreed on a 49 percent stake, pulled out.

Sofia wants to build Belene so as not to lose hundreds of millions of euros it has already invested and to avoid paying hefty compensation to the Russian contractor, Atomstroyexport.
(XE, via Reuters)

ALL AT THE ZAR COURT. (Tutti alla corte dello zar)

2010-10-14T21:36:00.006+02:00

Alcune compagnie energetiche tedesche hanno espresso il desiderio di partecipare al progetto South Stream. E’ quanto emerge dall’incontro Berlusconi-Putin di domenica scorsa. Ecco che le ali del Nabucco sono sempre meno dorate e, se le cose continueranno per questa china, il progetto energetico europeo non andrà lontano. Nabucco è infatti il nome dato al gasdotto che dal mar Caspio dovrebbe rifornire i Balcani fino all’Italia e all’Austria. Lo scopo della sua costruzione è eminentemente geopolitico: estendere l’influenza “occidentale” sui Balcani e sul Caucaso. La sua progettazione è precedente all’adesione all’Unione Europea dei Balcani orientali e si profila quale strumento di persuasione a restare in orbita europea per i Paesi che vedono procedere a rilento il loro percorso di integrazione. Nabucco nasce come concorrente del South Stream russo poiché, si ragionò giustamente, dipendere dalla Russia nel settore dei rifornimenti energetici significherebbe perdere larghe fette di sovranità: come criticare la diplomazia di Mosca nel campo dei diritti umani se dal Cremlino controllano i rubinetti del gas? Come osteggiare la politica estera di Mosca, le guerre in Cecenia e in Georgia, l’assalto all’Artico, le ingerenze in Ucraina, se si diventa servi del gas russo? E ancora: come affermare l’autonomia dell’Unione di fronte a un duplice vassallaggio, militare-americano da un lato e russo-energetico dall’altro?

Ma sul Nabucco si è investito poco e male. L’Italia e l’Eni sono state le prime a capire che non c’era di che ingrassarsi col progetto europeo e si son subito vendute al “rivale” russo. Eni e Gazprom diventano così partners per la costruzione del South Stream con tanti saluti all’europeo Nabucco. L’Italia, che con difficoltà si annovera tra le democrazie compiute, predilige fare affari con Putin e Gheddafi. La torta russa piace non solo agli italiani, ecco che la Edf (Electricité de France) entra nella joint-venture con Gazprom ed Eni. Lo scorso giugno 2010 Nicolas Sarkozy vola a San Pietroburgo alla corte dello zar per sottoscrivere l’affare.

Ora anche i tedeschi vogliono partecipare all’abbuffata. “Benone” esclama Berlusconi in visita presso l’amico Putin, in questo modo sarà possibile riscuotere l’interesse dell’Unione Europea finora rimasta fredda nei confronti del South Stream. I tedeschi, va detto, già sono partner di Gazprom per la costruzione del gasdotto North Stream, quello che aggira repubbliche baltiche e Polonia (ree di scarso amore verso lo zar) e va dritto in Germania; quello sottoscritto a inizio anni Duemila dall’allora cancelliere Schroeder, attratto dall’oro azzurro russo, poi divenuto dirigente Gazprom e responsabile proprio del consorzio North Stream; quello per cui in Polonia si stracciano le vesti gridando a un nuovo patto Molotov-Ribbentrop.

Rumors indicano nella Basf il nome dell’azienda energetica tedesca pronta a unirsi ai tre moschettieri Gazprom, Eni, Edf. Un’ulteriore mazzata al progetto Nabucco per il quale la Banca europea per gli Investimenti (Bei) e quella per la Ricostruzione e Sviluppo (Bers) hanno appena stanziato altri 4 miliardi di euro, segno che l’affrancamento energetico dell’Europa dalla Russia è considerato prioritario da Bruxelles che si trova a dover gestire tre serpi in seno assai velenose.

Una nota finale: il Nabucco parte dall’Iran, via Tabriz ed Erzurum. Proprio ad Erzurum raccoglie il braccio che s’avvia da Baku e passa per Tiblisi. Poi va verso Ankara, Istanbul e l’Europa. Il governo italiano si è sempre mostrato molto duro nei confronti del regime degli Ayatollah, ai limiti dell’ottusità, e si è detto favorevole all’intervento militare a stelle e strisce mentre, per ragioni che dopo questo lungo discorso parranno ovvie, non ha mai detto “beh” sul massacro in Cecenia.

I partners del Nabucco, inoltre, stanno tutti cambiando casacca: L’Azerbaijan si è vincolato con Mosca, e ben poco della sua produzione resterà a Bruxelles, ma il Cremlino ha promesso protezione e denari in quantità al regime di Baku. Il Turkmenistan, altra dittatura, è da pochissimo entrata in affari con Eni e Gazprom e punta a rifornire la Cina più che l’Europa. L’Iran -grazie anche all’intervento americano- è assai indietro nello sviluppo dei suoi giacimenti. Ecco allora che non resta che prendersi in faccia l’ironia di Putin: “Che Dio li aiuti -ha dichiarato- il Nabucco è un tubo vuoto e il consorzio che lo sta sviluppando (l’austriaca Omw, l’ungherese Mol, la rumena Transgaz, la Bulgargas, la tedesca Rwe e la turca Botas. ndr) non fornirà nemmeno un metro cubo di gas fino al 2018 mentre fra un anno il South Stream sarà pronto”. Con buona pace della democrazia europea.
(East Journal)

UNCOVERING BARENTS SEA. (Scoperchiando il Mare di Barents)

2010-09-25T17:01:00.006+02:00

Talking to journalists this week, Minister Trutnev called the Russian-Norwegian delimitation of the Barents Sea as “a truly historical event for the development of Russian geology”. –We get the chance to study, and then hopefully exploit, resources estimated to tens of billions tons of oil equivalents, RIA Novosti reports.

He also stressed that Russia is obliged to develop trans-border resources jointly with Norway, Oilru.com reports.

Read also: Norway and Russia sign maritime delimitation agreement

As previously reported, Trutnev last week confirmed that Statoil will be given exclusive rights as Norwegian partner in all the transborder projects. Other foreign companies will have to negotiate with the parts to get stakes, he underlined.

The deal signed last week in Murmansk could thus give Russia a new oil and gas province, Trutnev says. He believes that prospects are big both on the Russian and Norwegian side of the border.

-There are up to ten structures which we believe can be adhered to the category of “huge” and “unique”, the Russian minister said, RIA Novosti reports. He stressed that exploration in the area can start only after the ratification of the deal by the two countries’ legislative assemblies and that it subsequently will take “at least 5-7 years” to study the structures and a minimum of 12-15 years before production can start.

Trutnev doubts that the shelf will become the new hydrocarbon resource base for Russia by year 2020, an objective proclaimed by federal authorities. -This is a "very complicated and unrealistic task", he says, RBC.ru reports.

As previously reported, Trutnev was part of the Russian delegation attending the signing ceremony on the delimitation of the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean. After the ceremony, Trutnev said that the Barents Sea could hide as much as “25 percent of hydrocarbon resources on Planet Earth”.
(BarentsObserver)

APR IS THE KEY. (L'area del Pacifico asiatico è la chiave)

2010-08-20T19:46:00.005+02:00

Now that a project to boost capacity of the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline up to 50 million tons per year (with prospects of further capacity increase up to 80 million tons) has been approved, Russia is gaining chances to expand its presence in the Asia-Pacific energy market.

Five more oil pumping stations are going to be added to already existing seven to supply even more Russian oil to Asia. Apart from this, several standby routes will be built via the rivers Angara, Lena and Aldan, as well as through the Ust-Ilimsk water reservoir.

Step-by-step extension of the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline will speed up development of the whole regions of Siberia and the Russian Far East. The project will boost infrastructure development of the region’s oil transportation system. An expert Alexander Pasechnik comments.Russia has been successfully expanding its oil exports to the Asia-Pacific region, which is in no way a sensational decision. Expansion in exports had been planned in the original draft project. So, the capacity of 80 million tons per year is what we expect the next stage of the project’s implementation to bring us to.

The first leg of the pipeline was commissioned last December to link Taishet, a town in the Irkutsk region, and Skovorodino in the Amur region. From Skovorodino the oil is delivered further by railway to the Kozmino port in the Primorsk region.There also will be a spur to China, turning the whole system into a global network connecting deposits in Western and Eastern Siberia with the Pacific coast and providing diversification of the Russian energy resources. Until recently, Russia has exported its oil and gas mainly to Europe. But construction of the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline paved Russia the way to the APR, now the epicenter of global economic growth.
As China is the leading energy consumer in the APR [Asia-Pacific Region, ndr], its demand for fuel is likely to increase twice in 10 years. India`s rapidly growing economy is causing growing demand for energy as well, while South Korea and Japan are expected to reach the same level by 2015. So, there is no doubt that the Russian oil will be in high demand in the region. Besides, delivering oil from Russia is quicker than from the Middle East, which is an extra point playing into our hands.

Meanwhile, China has asked Russia to supply some oil for testing the newly built Chinese leg of the oil pipeline. Under the 2009 bilateral agreements, China is expected to start receiving 15 million tons of Russian oil per year.
(The Voice of Russia)

BP RUSSIAN CONNECTION. (Il legame russo della BP)

2010-08-10T10:36:00.003+02:00

Russia's top oil boss gave a cool nod of approval to BP Plc's new Chief Executive Bob Dudley on Wednesday, while praising his predecessor Tony Hayward, ousted over his handling of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

Russia is a key part of BP's global operation, providing the company with a quarter of its reserves before the U.S. oil spill, so it is vital for Dudley to establish a good working relationship with the world's largest oil exporting nation.

"We are ... counting on your experience, Mr Dudley, and on new projects in our partnership," Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin said, opening a meeting with both Dudley and Hayward, where he said Russia was "satisfied" with the new CEO.

"The field for cooperation is very broad."

It was the first visit to Russia for Dudley, once the CEO of BP's joint venture in Russia, since he was forced out of the country in a fierce dispute with a quartet of billionaires who accused him of running the 50-50 venture like a BP subsidiary.

"And now Mr Dudley is back!" Sechin exclaimed with a laugh.

At the headquarters of Russia's top oil producer, Rosneft, where Sechin is chairman, Hayward led the way into the meeting and greeted the deputy prime minister with an embrace and a formal kiss on the cheek.

Sechin, a close ally of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, said Putin asked him to "say hello" to both Dudley and Hayward.
Hayward, who acceded to a peace deal with the Russian shareholders, which was chalked up as a loss for BP, will take a seat on the board of the Russia venture, TNK-BP.

"The fact that you will continue to work on the board of TNK-BP will be a help to Mr Dudley and to us," Sechin said.

"And who knows? Maybe there could be other offers in the future."

As the meeting opened in the presence of journalists, there was no mention of potential asset sales to pay for the damage from the Gulf of Mexico catastrophe, the world's largest accidental marine oil spill.

But analysts said they were likely on the agenda for Dudley's one-day trip to Russia as the company declared progress plugging the well.

Industry sources said he also met BP's Russian partners in TNK-BP and with Sergei Bogdanchikov, the CEO of top Russian oil producer Rosneft.

BP, which took a $32.2 billion charge related to the spill in its results last week, has said it will sell $25 billion to $30 billion of assets to pay for the disaster.

"What we can be sure of is that Russia has a specific agenda, i.e. a wish list, and will take full advantage of BP's weakened state to press that," Chris Weafer, chief strategist at Russian brokerage Uralsib, said in an e-mailed note.

BP owns 1.2 percent of Rosneft as well as its 50 percent stake in TNK-BP.

"I want to reassure you BP is continuing its commitment to Russia," Hayward told Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, in a meeting with incoming CEO Bob Dudley. Dudley fled Russia in 2008 as BP battled its local partners for control of their 50-50 venture TNK-BP.

Hayward said he remained personally committed to working in Russia's oil and gas sector, but Dudley was well placed to continue the relationship as CEO.

TNK-BP has said it may buy BP's Venezuelan assets and media reports have suggested BP is more likely to sell assets to Russian companies than divest its holdings here.

Earlier this week a Rosneft official denied newspaper reports that the Russian producer was in talks to buy BP's stake in a German refinery Gelsenkirchen, a joint venture with Venezuela's PDVSA and a network of German petrol stations.

The sides must also decide the fate of the giant undeveloped Siberian Kovykta gas deposit that was slated for sale to Gazprom in a deal that was never finalized.

"If BP is going to be squeezed more and more in the U.S., as recent reports suggest "then its Russian assets will become an even more important part of its future," Weafer added.
(Abc News)

IT'S THE END OF THE WEST, AS WE KNOW IT (AND I DON'T KNOW HOW TO FEEL)

2010-05-24T14:56:00.011+02:00

A major reason for the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of Afghanistan was the building of a pipeline through the country that would take natural gas from Turkmenistan to India and Pakistan. Canada and the other 44 Western countries occupying Afghanistan are supporting this U.S. objective by bolstering Washington’s military position in the country.

Turkmenistan, which borders Afghanistan, contains the fourth largest reserves of natural gas in the world. The U.S. has been trying to set up the pipeline for a decade, having first negotiated the venture with the ousted Taliban government. Two months after these negotiations broke down, Washington overthrew the Taliban in October 2001 when it invaded Afghanistan.

Since then, the U.S. has persuaded India, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan to sign an agreement aimed at constructing the pipeline, but the war in Afghanistan and the U.S.’s failure to defeat the Taliban stalled actual work on this project. Washington’s occupation of Afghanistan and pipeline plans are part of its strategy to gain control of Central Asia’s and the Caspian Sea area’s energy riches and divert them away from Russia, China, and Iran.

As Richard Boucher, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, stated in September 2007: “One of our goals is to stabilize Afghanistan so it can become a conduit and hub between South and Central Asia so that energy can flow to the south… and so that the countries of Central Asia are no longer bottled up between the two enormous powers of China and Russia, but rather that they have outlets to the south as well as to the north and the east and the west.”

However, as the Indian diplomat M.K. Bhadrakumar put it in an article for Asia Times, “The United States' pipeline diplomacy in the Caspian, which strove to bypass Russia, elbow out China and isolate Iran, has foundered.”
Recently, the U.S.’s Turkmen-Afghan pipeline plans have suffered what appears to be a fatal blow. On January 6, Turkmenistan committed its entire gas exports to China, Russia, and Iran with the inauguration of the Dauletabad-Sarakhs-Khangiran (DSK) pipeline which connects Iran's northern Caspian area with Turkmenistan.

As Bhadrakumar explains, Turkmenistan “has no urgent need of the pipelines that the United States and the European Union have been advancing.” The operation of the DSK pipeline, along with the launching of another one between China and Turkmenistan in December 2009, has “virtually redrawn the energy map of Eurasia and the Caspian,” he maintains. “We are witnessing a new pattern of energy cooperation at the regional level that dispenses with Big Oil [private Western multinational oil companies]. Russia traditionally takes the lead. China and Iran follow the example. Russia, Iran, and Turkmenistan hold, respectively, the world's largest, second-largest, and fourth-largest gas reserves. And China will be consumer par excellence in this century. The matter is of profound consequence to U.S. global strategy.”

Bhadrakumar has served in diplomatic posts for India in the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

Russia and Turkmenistan have also agreed to build an east-west pipeline connecting all of the latter’s gas fields to one network so that the pipelines going to Russia, Iran, and China can take gas from any of the fields. (See the accompanying map for the routes of these new and proposed pipelines.)

Three weeks before the opening of the DSK pipeline, China and Turkmenistan inaugurated a major natural gas pipeline between the two countries. The presidents of China, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan attended the opening ceremony of the 1,833-kilometre pipeline on December 14, 2009. The pipeline will transport natural gas from the Saman-Depe field in eastern Turkmenistan through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to China’s Xinjiang province, from where it will go to 14 Chinese provinces and cities. By 2012, the pipeline will deliver 40 billion cubic metres of gas per year, which is more than half of China’s present gas consumption.

Chinese President Hu Jintao described the pipeline as “another platform for collaboration and cooperation” between China and Central Asia. In return for access to Central Asian gas, China is building infrastructure and giving cheap loans to the area’s republics. According to John Chan, writing on the World Socialist Website: “Beijing’s broader aim is to bring the region within its own political and strategic orbit.”

Turkmenistan President Berdymukhamedov declared that the pipeline has “not only commercial and economic value. It is also political,” and will become “a major contributing factor to security in Asia”.

Uzbekistan President Islam Karimov added: “China, through its wise and farsighted policy, has become one of the key guarantors of global security.”

As Chan puts it, “The opening of a major Chinese pipeline from Turkmenistan alters the Central Asian energy equation. The Financial Times commented last week that the pipeline “deals a blow to the European Union’s plans to win Turkmen supplies for the planned Nabucco pipeline.”
This pipeline is the U.S.’s and E.U.’s attempt at breaking Russia’s dominant role as the leading energy supplier to Europe. Nabucco depends mainly on getting gas from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. However, Russia now wants to double its consumption of Azerbaijani gas, and Iran is also becoming a consumer of this gas, further reducing supplies for Nabucco.
In December 2009, Azerbaijan signed an agreement to deliver gas to Iran through the 1,400km Kazi-Magomed-Astara pipeline. Russia's South Stream and North Stream pipelines (the latter’s construction starts in Spring 2010), will supply gas to northern and southern Europe, ensuring Moscow’s continued dominance of energy supplies to Europe.
As Bhadrakumar points out, the DSK pipeline shows that U.S. efforts to demonize, isolate, and terrorize Iran have failed miserably. In open defiance of U.S. policy, President Berdymukhammedov of Turkmenistan is busy creating “a new economic axis” with Iranian president Mahmud Ahmadinejad, whom he considers a valuable partner.

Washington’s and the West’s show of force in Afghanistan has also failed to impress Berdymukhammedov, who is giving all of his country’s natural gas to Russia, China, and Iran. These countries are not currently engaged in imperialist military occupation of another nation. All they had to do to get Turkmenistan’s gas was to offer it a decent economic deal. So, while the West kills thousands of civilians in Afghanistan and Pakistan and ravages both countries, Russia, China and Iran are acquiring the crucial energy riches of Central Asia and the Caspian area without firing a shot.

Russian dominance of Central Asia was further cemented by the recent overthrow of the pro-U.S. government in Kyrgyzstan and its replacement by a pro-Moscow regime. The new government has told Washington that it can no longer use the Manas airbase, which is the main transshipment point for American supplies to Afghanistan.

In light of such major Western energy-related defeats, the continuing occupation of Afghanistan by 46 Western nations must have some other purpose. If their military venture were mainly economic — if they simply wanted greater access to Central Asia’s resources — why did they not offer the region’s countries acceptable prices for them, just as Russia, China, and Iran are doing?

The answer perhaps lies in a memorable remark by the great Palestinian intellectual Edward Said: “At the heart of the Western Idea is imperialism.”

The West did not become rich by offering resource-endowed countries fair and mutually beneficial economic deals. It became rich by subjecting countries in the Global South to 500 years of genocide and plunder through colonialism, neocolonialism, and the endless wars these aggressive actions entail.

The U.S. and its allies do not seem to realize that the dark age of “might-is-right” imperialism is coming to an end. Russia, China, India, and Iran are not countries that can be subdued by displays of military aggression in neighbouring nations. The continuing futile occupation of Afghanistan reflects the failure of the West’s political and military strategists to face this new geopolitical reality.

What possible threat could a financially and politically crippled West — a coalition that can’t even defeat the Taliban after nine years — pose to nuclear-armed Russia, China, and India? Countries like these are busy creating a post-imperial age in which aggression and occupation are not required to secure needed resources.

They are leaving the decadent West in the dust of history.
(RawaNews)

THE THIRD ELEMENT. (Il terzo elemento)

2010-05-11T15:54:00.005+02:00

The White Stream Pipeline Company is considering plans to build a gas pipeline linking Azerbaijan and Georgia.

According to British White Stream Pipeline Company Chairman Roberto Pirani, the proposed pipeline would transport gas from the Sangachal terminal near Baku in Azerbaijan to the Georgian port of Supsa.

The Sangachal–Supsa pipeline would provide an extension to the White Stream Pipeline currently in planning, which will transport natural gas from the Caspian Region to markets in Central and Eastern Europe.

Conceived in 2005, the White Stream project is intended to develop the Southern energy corridor, transporting gas from countries in the Caspian Region via Georgia directly to countries on the Western side of the Black Sea, such as Romania and Ukraine. The pipelines will cross the Black Sea in water depths in excess of 2,000 m.

Under the new plans, the project will also be linked in to gas supplies in Azerbaijan. The Sangachal terminal is currently supplied with gas from the Azerbaijani offshore field of Shah Deniz.

The White Stream project will be developed in stages and it is anticipated that at full completion will have two branches, one connecting Georgia to Romania through two parallel subsea pipelines, with an offshore length of approximately 1,100 km and the other connecting Georgia to the Ukrainian gas network also with two parallel pipelines an offshore length of 620 km.
The first White Stream Pipeline, expected to commence construction in 2012, will have a capacity of approximately 8 Bcm/a and is due for completion in 2015. During the subsequent years the other three subsea pipelines will be constructed and will take the overall capacity of the system to approximately 32 Bcm/a. A 430 km subsea connection between Crimea and Romania is also being considered.

The Southern energy corridor also includes [1) ndr] the Nabucco Turkey –Greece–Italy (TGI) Pipeline and [2) ndr] the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP).
(Pipelines International)

10 ME, 10 YOU (10 io, 10 te)

2010-05-06T14:19:00.005+02:00

Russian and Italy will each give a 10% stake in the South Stream pipeline to France's EDF , Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said today.

"We will do it concurrently - us and the Italians, 10% each," Putin told reporters on a visit to Ukraine which followed a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi in Italy.

EDF is set to get a 20% stake in the South Stream gas pipeline designed to bring Russian gas to Europe, with work on the project due to start in the first half of 2012, Putin and Berlusconi said today.

Separately, Putin said Russia's budget will lose $3 billion this year and $4 billion in 2011 as a result of agreeing last week to a 30% cut in the price of its gas supplies to Ukraine.

"In essence it will mean an increase in the budget deficit for us," he said. "These are serious parameters, but we will manage."

Russia had expected a deficit of 3 trillion roubles ($103 billion), or 6.8% of gross domestic product this year, Reuters reported today.
(UpStreamOnline.com)

SEVASTOPOL PAID IN GAS? (Sevastopoli pagata in metano?)

2010-04-23T12:50:00.007+02:00

The presidents of Ukraine and Russia agreed Wednesday to extend the stay of Russia's Black Sea Fleet in the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol after the lease expires in 2017.

The move is among the strongest signs since Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych took power in February that he will steer away from his pro-Western predecessor's drive to shed Russia's influence.

It also is likely to boost Yanukovych's standing at home by taking some pressure off Ukraine's beleaguered economy. The agreement includes Russia giving Ukraine steep discounts for the natural gas on which its industries depend.

Ukraine has been hit harder by the global downturn than many other European countries, and it has been eager to get discounts for Russian gas.

For years, Ukraine bought Russian gas at well below market prices, but after Yushchenko took office and pledged to bring the country into NATO and the European Union, Russia repeatedly raised prices. Price disputes led to Russian gas cutoffs; the most severe, in early 2009, lasted two weeks and severely curtailed Russia's gas exports to Western Europe, most of which transit Ukraine.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said the base's lease would receive a 25-year extension. Russia pays $90 million per year for the base. There was no word on any change under the new deal.

Ukrainian opposition figures quickly criticized the deal, saying the lease extension violated the constitution.

Ukraine's previous president, Viktor Yushchenko, had fought to kick the fleet out when its lease expired, calling it a hostile presence in Ukraine.
(Dallas News)

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The smiles on the two president’s faces belied the hard work that had gone into making the deal happen. According to the Kommersant daily the negotiating teams, headed by Prime Ministers Vladimir Putin and Nikolai Azarov, and including on the Russian side Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, had been up all night finalizing the details of the agreement. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich were just going through the formalities.

But there is a good reason for the smiles and the attention to detail. The deal addresses three of the most sensitive issues in Russian-Ukrainian relations: the future of the Russian Baltic Fleet, gas supplies, and potential Ukrainian membership in NATO.

The Black Sea fleet will get to stay in Sevastopol, its historic and only really viable base, until 2042; that saves Russia money on building new naval facilities on its own Black Sea coast, but it also gives it a “political-strategic” victory, said Volodymyr Fesenko, the head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies in Kiev. “Russia not only preserves a military presence in the Black Sea basin and on Ukrainian territory, but also has a factor of influence on external security policy and internal affairs in Ukraine,” he said.

According to some commentators, including the Kommersant daily, the jewel in the crown of that influence is that since NATO membership rules forbid the presence of non-alliance military bases on members’ territory, the agreement effectively puts a 30-year freeze on Ukraine’s aspirations to join the North Atlantic Alliance. NATO membership was a key policy of Yanukovich’s predecessor, former President Vitor Yushchenko, and the source of much of the ill feeling between his administration and Moscow.

The quid-pro-quo is a 30 percent discount on Russian gas deliveries, which, according to the deal, Ukraine will count as additional rent payments on the Sevastopol port. For Ukraine, that basically means a saving of $100 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas (for the record, the discount will be $100 per 1,000 cubic meters when prices are over $330, and 30 percent for lower prices. Current prices are around $334. The discount will apply to 30 billion cubic meters in 2010, and 40 billion from 2011 onwards).

At yesterday’s press conference Yanukovich said that Ukraine would receive from Russia “a real investment of resources, specifically gas,” amounting to “around $40 billion dollars” over the next ten years. “And this bears the hallmarks of an economic victory for Ukraine,” said Fesenko.

It’s so far difficult to tell whether an economic win for Ukraine means a loss for Russia. In a note released Thursday morning Alfa Bank briefly pointed out that the gas discount would come at the expense of the Russian government, rather than Gazprom, but a spokesman for the bank refused to comment further, saying that the company’s Kiev and Moscow analysts were still working out the long-term implications.

Sergei Markov, a political scientist and State Duma Deputy for the United Russia faction, insisted the $40 billion cited by Yanukovich in yesterday’s press conference was an investment on which Russia expects a return. “Russia is likely to get a lot of profit from joint Russian-Ukrainian economic projects,” he said. “It’s a popular but crude mistake to suppose that Russia is paying for the Black Sea Fleet with gas.” (Markov also contests the widely held assumption that the deal will preclude NATO membership, pointing out that when the George W. Bush administration was cheerleading Yushchenko’s membership bid, U.S. officials had said the Russian base ought not to be a barrier).

According to Markov, the deal around the Black Sea Fleet is actually much simpler. “Russia saves hundreds of millions of dollars that it would otherwise have to spend building new naval bases in Novorossiysk and elsewhere,” he said. “The deal is, Ukraine lets us stay in Sevastopol, and we share the savings.”

Not everyone is so convinced by either the supposed Chinese wall between the two agreements, or the benefits of the deal. Russian opposition leader and one-time advisor to former Ukrainian president Yushchenko Boris Nemtsov told the Kommersant daily that “we could have demanded more for that money,” and warned darkly of the “Lukashenko factor,” – a reference to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has gained a reputation for taking Russian aid without reciprocation. (Others have also raised the Lukashenko parallel, but not always negatively. Victor Ozerov, the chairman of the Federation Council’s defense committee, told Kommersant that though the price was high, it was no less than Russia grants Belarus, “and Lukashenko threatens worse relations.” And Markov even suggested that improved relations with Kiev might strengthen Moscow’s hand in its troubled relations with Minsk).

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, the deal is proving even more divisive. The presence of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol is a subject that polarizes Ukrainian society, and it has unified the fractious opposition for the first time since the presidential elections, said Fesenko. “Two days ago Yushchenko, [former Prime Minister Yulia] Tymoshenko, [Arseniy] Yatsenyuk, [Vyacheslav] Kiriyenko, were all criticizing each other. Now they’re united in criticizing the agreement about the Black Sea Fleet,” he said. On Thursday afternoon it was reported that the Ukrainian Constitutional Court had approved the deal, but that doesn’t mean it will pass into law. “In the coming days we may see a parliamentary crisis as the opposition attempts to block ratification of the deal,” said Fesenko.
(Russia Profile)

NORD STREAM TIME. (L'ora del Nord Stream)

2010-04-12T22:48:00.008+02:00

Construction of the controversial Nord Stream pipeline from Russia to western Europe under the Baltic Sea has been officially launched.

Gazprom holds 51% of Nord Stream, which will run from the Russian port of Vyborg to Germany's Greifswald.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and German Chancellor Angela Merkel attended the ceremony near Vyborg.

The project was given the go-ahead only in February amid fears that the pipeline could damage the Baltic Sea.

President Medvedev said at the ceremony that the pipeline "for the first time - which may be one of its main achievements - will ensure direct supplies of Russian gas to western Europe, bypassing transit territories".

The existing pipelines run from Russia to EU countries via Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova.

Russia provides up to 30% of the gas consumed in Europe, and many European countries have been keen to secure alternative energy supplies.

Critics have argued that European countries do not need more gas from Russia and that the project is too expensive.

But Gazprom deputy chief executive Alexander Medvedev said there was plenty of demand for the gas.

"All the gas volumes have either been contracted, or have been formalized in binding obligations," he told journalists.

Gas supplies from Russia to Europe have been threatened or disrupted in the past due to political and financial disputes between Moscow and its neighbours.

But Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said at the ceremony: "This country [Russia] has been cooperating with European neighbours in the gas sector for over 40 years.

"This cooperation has stood the test of time to the full extent."

The ceremony was also attended by Nord Stream board chairman and former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende and European Commissioner for Energy
Russian gas monopoly Gazprom said on Wednesday that the first pipe had been laid under the sea.

The pipeline will be passing through Russian, Finnish, Swedish and German waters.

Last month, Nord Stream secured a 3.9bn-euro ($5.4bn; £3.5bn) fund to complete the first phase of the pipeline.

"Debt financing will cover 70% of the project costs while the remaining 30% will be provided by the project shareholders," said Paul Corcoran, financial director of Nord Stream AG.

German companies BASF-Wintershall and E.On Ruhrgas each own 20% of Nord Stream, while Gasunie of the Netherlands holds 9%.

Alexey Bulgakov from Troika Dialog investment bank pointed out that "Gazprom and its partners seem to have managed to raise funds at rather low interest rates."

The overall cost of the project, due for completion in 2012, is expected to reach 7.4bn euros.

Russia hopes to pump up to 55bn cubic metres of gas a year to EU countries through the pipeline.
Supporters of the project say that it will secure gas supplies from Russia to Europe.
But environmentalists argue that building the pipeline could lead to toxins lying on the sea bed being stirred up, as the Baltic sea is one of the most polluted in the world.

Finland had refused to give the green light to construct the pipeline, but finally agreed to it in February under the condition that ships laying the pipeline do not lay anchor in Finland's economic zone.

The final hurdle was overcome after Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin assured Baltic leaders that the project was safe, as extensive research had been carried out into any environmental impact of the pipeline construction.

Apart from the Nord Stream, Russia has been planning another pipeline, the South Stream, which will run from southern Russia to Bulgaria under the Black Sea.

Meanwhile, Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Austria last July signed an agreement to construct the long-planned 3,300km Nabucco natural gas pipeline.

It is expected to pump up to 31bn cubic metres of gas annually from the Caspian and the Middle East across Turkey and into Europe.
(BBC)

ENI'S BETRAYAL. (Il tradimento dell'Eni)

2010-03-26T12:26:00.005+01:00

Europe should unite efforts to secure natural gas by linking the South Stream and Nabucco pipelines, officials at Italian energy giant ENI said.

European leaders should increase investments in infrastructure needed to secure "new sources" of natural gas from locations such as Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Africa, said Paolo Scaroni, the chief executive at Italian energy giant ENI.

Scaroni told delegates at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston that diversity was the key to the global energy sector of the future.

"In the decade ahead, and probably well beyond that, the world energy scene will be increasingly dominated by the consumption of gas and the supply of gas," he said.

Scaroni said European leaders would benefit from linking rival pipeline projects Nabucco and South Stream, Russia's ITAR-Tass news agency adds.

"If only all partners decided to link the two, we would reduce operating costs and increase efficiency," he said.

A troubled relationship between gas host nation Ukraine and supplier Russia prompted a race to diversify the European energy sector.

The European Commission recently allocated billions of dollars to fund the construction of the Nabucco gas pipeline to move non-Russian gas through Turkey.

Moscow, meanwhile, aims to avoid Ukrainian territory with its South Stream gas pipeline through the Balkans.

ENI is a major partner in the South Stream project along with Russian gas giant Gazprom.

(UPI)

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Russia is not considering a proposal to combine part of its South Stream gas project with the Western-backed Nabucco pipeline, Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko said on Monday.

"We are not discussing such issues," Shmatko said.

Shmatko commented on a recent suggestion by Italy's Eni SpA, Gazprom's partner in the South Stream gas pipeline project, that combining some sections of the pipelines would cut costs and boost profits.

Eni CEO Paolo Scaroni was reported to say at a Cambridge Energy Research Associates conference in Houston on Wednesday that if all the partners decided to merge the two pipelines for part of the route, "we would reduce investments, operational costs and increase overall returns."

Shmatko also said Russia welcomed Europe's desire to diversify gas supply routes but did not consider the South Stream and Nabucco as rival projects.

Both South Stream and Western-backed Nabucco aim to supply natural gas to Southern and Central Europe. The South Stream project is designed to deliver up to 63 billion cubic meters of Central Asian and Russian natural gas under the Black Sea while Nabucco is intended to pump 31 billion cu m of natural gas from the Caspian region via Turkey.

Russian experts, however, are skeptical about the prospects of merging the two pipelines as Nabucco was originally designed to cut Europe's dependence on Russian natural gas deliveries.

(RIA Novosti)

WELCOME TO SHTOKMAN. (Benvenuti a Shtokman)

2010-03-10T16:34:00.011+01:00

Background information

The Shtokman gas and condensate field - one of the biggest offshore fields of its kind - was discovered in 1988. The field is located in the central part of the Russian sector of the Barents Sea shelf, about 600 km northeast of the city of Murmansk at sea depths varying from 320 to 340 m.

The field’s C1+C2 reserves account for 3.8 tcm of gas and circa 37 mln t of gas condensate.

The Sevmorneftegaz - a 100 percent Gazprom subsidiary - holds the license to the project. The operator company is the Shtokman Development Company, a Swiss-registered joint venture of Gazprom (51%), Total (25%) and StatoilHydro (24%).

The Shtokman gas will be shipped partly by pipeline, partly as LNG.

According to plans, the field is to be in production from year 2013.

The village of Teriberka located northeast of Murmansk City has been chosen as the main hub for Shtokman operations.

(Barents Observer)

Shtokman postponed 3 years

The Shtokman Development AG's board of directors today decided to postpone the development of the huge field in the Barents Sea with three years.

A press release from the company confirms that a final investment decision in the project's pipeline part will be taken in March 2011, while the decision on the LNG part will be taken before the end of 2011, newspaper Vedomosti reports.

About 50 percent of the 3,8 trillion cubic meter of Shtokman gas is planned developed as LNG, the remaining shipped through pipelines. The Shtokman field, located offshore about 600 km north of Murmansk, has long been a top priority project of Gazprom. It is to be developed by the Shtokman Development AG, a company controled by Gazprom (51%) in partnership with Total (25%) and Statoil (24%).

Both the Shtokman Development AG and Gazprom has long stressed that the project will be in operation from year 2013 (the pipeline part) and 2014 (the LNG part).

As BarentsObserver has reported, several experts have recently claimed that the huge Arctic project will face serious delays, and that it might even never be developed. Among them is Oddgeir Danielsen from the Norwegian Barents Secretariat. Now, the project will not be in production before 2016, at earliest.
(Barents Observer)

Disputed waters on the agenda

Just few weeks before Russian President Dmitry Medvedev arrives in Oslo for a state visit, both Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg and Russia’s Vladimir Putin highlight the positive dynamics in talks over the disputed waters in the Barents Sea.

In their meeting in Helsinki yesterday, Stoltenberg and Putin confirmed the “good and productive atmosphere” in the talks over the delimitation of the Barents Sea. Both men agreed that a deal would significantly facilitate new joint projects in the two countries’ High North.

-I believe that if we manage to solve this issue, new fields of opportunities for extended economic cooperation will open, among them in the energy sector, Stoltenberg said in a press conference following the meeting, the Russian Government press service informs.

The meeting, which was held during the Baltic Sea Action Summit, lasted for about 45 minutes, and both the Shtokman field and the disputed zone were on the agenda. Both issues are highly inter-related. The huge Shtokman field is located not far from the disputed 155,000 square km zone, and is by the Norwegian side seen as a strategically key project.

In addition, the zone is believed to hide significant hydrocarbon resources. A deal on the zone delimitation and subsequent oil and gas developments in the area would have major possible impact on the Shtokman field development.

In a time with uncertainties in the world gas market, the opening of the disputed waters for oil and gas activities, would make the development of the Shtokman field more attractive. The Shtokman developers Gazprom, Total and Statoil would then not only be able to use field infrastructure in additional projects, but also have a significant chance to succeed in bids for other fields in the area.

Talking to newspaper Aftenposten after the meeting in Helsinki, Prime Minister Stoltenberg underlined that hydrocarbon developments in the Disputed Zone are impossible as long as there is no delimitation deal. He also highlighted that the oil and gas resources in the zone are located far closer to land than the Shtokman field and that they would therefore also be far easier to develop.

Talks between Norway and Russian on the delimitation of the 155,000 square kilometer zone in the Barents Sea have been going on for almost 40 years. While Norway wants to divide the zone based on a middle line principle, Russia insists that a sector line principle is applie
(Barents Observer)

Gazprom discussed Shtokman timeline

The development of the first development phase of the Shtokman project was on the agenda when Gazprom Deputy Aleksandr Ananenkov today met with owner representatives of the Shtokman Development AG.

The meeting, which took place in the Moscow headquarters of Gazprom, discussed preparations for the development of the project, and especially issues related to time schedules in the project’s first development phase, a press release from the company reads.

The company in early February announced that the project launch will be postponed from 2014 to 2016 and that a final investment decision will be made only in 2011, and not in 2010 as earlier planned.

However, as reported by BarentsObserver this week, representatives of project partner Total maintain that the project is on schedule after all. That was also stated earlier by Gazprom Deputy Aleksandr Medvedev
(Barents Observer)

NO MORE GAS CRISES? (Niente più crisi del gas?)

2010-02-11T10:13:00.007+01:00

Ukraine's President-elect Viktor Yanukovych is expected to reach out to Russia as well as the West to safeguard Ukraine's position as an important energy transit country.

Yanukovych won Sunday's presidential election duel against Orange Revolution hero Yulia Tymoshenko and is now expected to reform the Ukrainian gas sector. Nearly 80 percent of Russian gas exports to Europe are sent through Ukraine, satisfying one-fifth of the continent's demand.

Alexander Rahr, an analyst with the Berlin-based German Council on Foreign Relations, met Yanukovych at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Rahr said the Ukrainian leader told him about his plan to hand the Ukrainian gas network, which is in dire need of modernization, to a consortium comprised of Ukrainian transit companies [first of all, Naftogaz], Russian state-controlled energy giant Gazprom and Western European energy companies.

"Yanukovych does not want to give up Ukraine's role as an important transit hub," Rahr told UPI in a telephone interview Wednesday.

The balancing act is intended to please Russia as well as the West, after the confrontational course steered by Kiev and Moscow in the past years only damaged Ukraine's role as a reliable transit country.

Current President Viktor Yushchenko, who led Ukraine into two gas crises with Russia, was eliminated in the first round of voting.

In the aftermath of the first gas conflict between Ukraine and Russia, two major Russian-European gas pipeline projects -- Nord Stream in Germany and South Stream in southeastern Europe -- were jumpstarted in a bid to bypass Ukraine and deliver Russian gas unilaterally to Europe.

Yanukovych is eager to at least render insignificant South Stream, which is not as far advanced as Nord Stream, for which most of the pipes have already been delivered. Reports say South Stream could almost halve Ukraine's transit fees -- a disastrous outlook for the notoriously bankrupt country.

Rahr said the gas relations between Russia and Ukraine will thus remain highly political.

"Ukraine can't afford to pay the bills for Russian gas," which easily amount to $1 billion per month, Rahr said.

That's why Kiev is expected to please the Kremlin on other fronts, such as giving up plans to join NATO or allowing for the Russian Black Sea fleet to remain in Sevastopol.

"If that happens, then Ukraine will get the same price for gas as Belarus," which is on friendlier terms with Russia, and thus enjoys below-market prices.

Yet Yanukovych will also have to please the West to counter fears that he is turning his back on Europe.

While inviting European companies into the pipeline consortium, he is expected to further privatize the Ukrainian economy and include Western firms in that process.

"And he won't be able to question the plan to eventually join the European Union," Rahr told UPI. "That's where the Ukrainians want to go, because it's a well-functioning economic circle, and one that promises prosperity. In that regard, Russia is no alternative."
(Energy Daily)

GO EAST(WARDS)!

2010-01-10T18:21:00.003+01:00

Russia expanded its foothold on the Asian energy market with the click of a mouse Monday [28th December].

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin pressed a button to get Siberian oil flowing into the first tanker for delivery to an Asian customer, in Hong Kong, from Russia’s Pacific coast. In addition to China, supplies will also target Japan and South Korea.

The ceremony completed four years of work to construct the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline and the Kozmino port, worth a combined 420 billion rubles ($14 billion) to ease the industry’s reliance on the European market.

“It’s a strategic project because it allows us to enter the completely new, growing and promising markets of the Asian-Pacific region,” Putin said at the launch. “It’s a great present to Russia for the New Year.”

The foray into the Asian oil market follows Russia’s arrival as a major supplier of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, for its eastern neighbors earlier this year. The Gazprom-led Sakhalin-2 project — with Shell, Mitsui and Mitsubishi as partners — started shipping the gas, chilled to a liquid for loading into tankers, from Russia’s offshore fields in the Pacific in February.

As it expands into new markets, Russia is keeping abreast of the global trend of diversification among both energy buyers and sellers, which will make the business more competitive worldwide, said Elena Shadrina, a visiting energy researcher at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies.

“No supplier or consumer will have a dominant position,” she said by telephone from Oslo.

Europe is trying to offset its dependence on gas imports from Russia by looking to buy more from Africa, while Turkmenistan began exporting its gas to China earlier this month, ending Russia’s role as its only major buyer. Asia, in turn, has been seeking alternatives to supplies from the Middle East.

Russia’s progress in eastward expansion has been spectacular, defying doubts that the country has sufficient oil reserves and investment, Shadrina said.

“As little as five years ago, I heard skeptical attitudes from Japanese officials and analysts,” she said. “The tone has really changed now.”

The Kozmino port, near Vladivostok, cost $2 billion to build and has the capacity to handle 300,000 barrels of crude per day (15 million tons per year), with oil quality comparable to that of Middle Eastern blends now dominating the market.

Transneft, the state pipeline monopoly, spent another $12 billion to lay the 2,694-kilometer ESPO pipeline through east Siberian wilderness to connect the area’s greenfields, being developed by oil majors Rosneft, TNK-BP and Surgutneftegaz, to the railway station of Skovorodino. The link has the capacity to carry 30 million tons a year.

Arriving in Skovorodino, the crude is loaded onto trains to travel to the port by rail.

Transneft plans to start building the rest of the pipeline to Kozmino, which requires an estimated investment of $10 billion, next year and complete the work in 2014. The effort will bring the link’s total length to 4,794 kilometers, which is more than the distance from New York to Los Angeles.

When completed, the pipeline will carry eastward an annual 80 million tons of oil from Siberia, including 15 million tons to China through an additional spur. China has loaned $25 billion to Russia in exchange for oil deliveries over the next two decades. Kozmino will increase capacity to 600,000 barrels per day, or 30 million tons per year.

Seeking the huge investment for the remote east Siberian greenfields that are to feed the pipeline, Russia will likely ease access to these resources by foreign oil majors, said Shamil Yenikeyeff, a researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. A law enacted last year allows the government to take away a field from a foreign company if it strikes large oil reserves there during exploration, a restriction that put off potential investors, such as Royal Dutch Shell.

Yenikeyeff said Russia’s emergence this year as an Asian energy power — while being a wise policy — displayed the country’s continuing reliance on oil and gas exports for economic prosperity.
“You may call this a new era,” he said, referring to the unlocking of new markets. “The question is: Does this mean that Russia will grow even more affected by the oil curse? If you look at the other industries, nothing is happening there.”

The first tanker’s crude that left Kozmino belongs to state-controlled Rosneft and represents a new oil blend named ESPO, after the pipeline. The low-sulphur, medium-heavy sweet blend ranks higher than Russia’s main export blend, Urals, but its quality is going to be unstable for a while as more producers pump their oil in the pipeline.

The price of the crude is tentatively based on the average monthly price of the Middle Eastern benchmark Dubai blend, with the option for traders to offer a discount or premium. Rosneft sold the first shipment to the Finnish trader IPP Oy at a premium of 50 cents.
(The Moscow Times)

AS USUAL. (Come al solito)

2009-12-29T17:06:00.006+01:00

Russia has warned the European Union it may cut its crude oil supplies via the Druzhba oil pipeline connecting Siberian oil fields with Europe to Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary due to demands by Ukraine for higher transit fees, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said Monday.

Hungarian oil and gas company MOL Nyrt said it received official notification from Russian oil pipeline operator OAO Transneft its transit spat with Ukraine's state oil pipeline operator Ukrtransnafta could lead to a cut of oil supplies to Eastern Europe Jan. 1.

"According to our knowledge Ukraine has asked for an increase of transit payments by Russia for [crude oil] shipments as of next year," Fico told a news conference.

"Therefore Russia has warned the EU and us about possible disruptions of crude oil shipments from as early as Jan. 1," Fico added.

The possible crude oil supply disruption is "due to [a] payments dispute between these two countries," Fico said, the same as last winter when Russia shut down natural gas shipments to the European Union via Ukraine.

"But unlike the gas crisis of last January, any possible oil shipment disruptions can be covered by [crude oil] supplies via alternative routes," Fico said.

Russian crude oil supplies account for over 90% of Slovakia's domestic demand. The eastern EU country can get alternative oil supplies other than Russian shipments via rail, Slovak industry minister Lubomir Jahnatek said.

Slovakia has crude oil and fuel reserves to cover more than 94 days of its domestic demand.

"These reserves are split about 50%-50% between crude oil and oil products," Fico said.

The Czech Republic has also prepared itself for the risk of an oil supply cut from Russia by maintaining reserves that can cover the local demand for more than 90 days, Czech Industry Ministry spokesman Tomas Bartovsky said.

"We went through similar situations before in 2008 and 2007 and therefore we're prepared," Bartovsky said.

Czechs are less vulnerable than their Slovak neighbors, since Czech oil refineries can be switched fully to crude oil supplies from the country's alternative pipeline, known as IKL. The pipeline connects the Czech Republic with the Adriatic sea port of Trieste in northern Italy and delivers crude oil from the Persian Gulf region. The IKL pipeline covers 30% of local demand.

"IKL is capable of covering the entire local demand if necessary but it would require securing shipment slot contracts in the pipeline system," Bartovsky said, adding that ramping up the IKL oil shipments would take some time.

Hungary's crude reserves are sufficient to supply the country for 90 days of average consumption, MOL said in a release.

"MOL is prepared to handle the situation; following a possible halt of supplies via the Druzhba pipeline, the reverse of flows on the Adriatic pipeline would become our prime task, which would take some 25-30 days," MOL said.

"Even if the row escalated between Russia and the Ukraine, Hungary's crude supply wouldn't be at threat," MOL added.

For several months from late spring through late summer of 2008, Russia disrupted its oil shipments to the Czech Republic and Slovakia over a dispute concerning transit fees between Moscow and Kiev.

"However, unlike last year's natural gas shipment crises, any possible crude oil shipment disruptions are more easily manageable and there is no need for concerns over insufficient fuel supplies on [the Czech] market," Bartovsky said.
(OilAndGasEurasia)

EVERYONE AGAINST EVERYONE. (Tutti contro tutti)

2009-12-14T15:09:00.006+01:00

The drive by foreign companies to grab a piece of the action in gas-rich Turkmenistan is reported to be producing some strange bedfellows -- like PetroSaudi, owned by the son of King Abdallah, and Merhav, an Israeli conglomerate run by former intelligence officer Yosef Maiman.

According to Intelligence Online, a Paris-based Web site that covers global security issues, the companies from these longtime Middle Eastern adversaries are negotiating a partnership "through intermediaries" to explore the Serdar field that straddles the border between Turkmenistan and oil-rich Azerbaijan.

It is reported to contain the equivalent of at least 1 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

Turkmenistan is the world's 10th-largest gas producer. The United States, Europe, China, Russia and Iran are all clamoring for access to its vast gas fields.

These contain an estimated 20 trillion cubic meters of natural gas -- enough to supply Europe for 66 years.

Maiman once worked for the Mossad, Israel's foreign intelligence service, and is reputedly linked to a network of companies owned by the agency.

He has been moving into Central Asia for some time, spearheading an Israeli effort to secure influence -- and a significant intelligence presence -- in the energy-rich Caspian Sea basin, the economic center of the five former Soviet republics that make up the Muslim region.

The Merhav Group has been involved in Turkmenistan's natural gas industry for years. In 2004 The Jerusalem Post described Maiman, a familiar figure in the Turkmen capital of Ashgabat, as a "leading figure" in Central Asia's gas sector.

According to some reports, Maiman was made a citizen of Turkmenistan by decree of the country's eccentric and authoritarian president, Saparmurad Niyazov, who died of heart disease Dec. 21, 2006.

According to Intelligence Online, Maiman was behind the appointment of Israel's first ambassador to Turkmenistan, Reuven Dinia, by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman recently. Dinai is another ex-Mossad officer, who once ran its Moscow station until he was expelled in 1996.

Merhav has reportedly dominated foreign business in Turkmenistan, including brokering energy projects in the country.

Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan are closely linked to Israeli commercial interests -- not to mention Israeli intelligence -- and Maiman appears to be well-placed to broker an agreement between them over the disputed Serdar field, which Ashgabat and Baku both claim, and secure a contract.

The German-born entrepreneur, who became an Israeli citizen in 1971 and founded Merhav five years later, also has longstanding business links with Saudi Arabia.

These connections may well expand as Israel and Saudi Arabia both find themselves in confrontation with nuclear-wannabe Iran.

Maiman has traveled to Riyadh several times in recent years on his collection of non-Israeli passports.
PetroSaudi, headed by Turki bin Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, one of the sons of the Saudi monarch, thus may be a front-runner in Turkmenistan if it cements its partnership with Merhav.

They face competition from Total of France, Eni of Italy, Royal Dutch Shell, TNK-BP, Lukoil of Russia and Chevron of the United States.

These companies are being welcomed in Ashgabat because the country was badly hit in April, when Russia suddenly stopped importing Turkmen natural gas.

That slashed Turkmenistan's exports by 84 percent, because Russia was experiencing a gas glut. Without Russia as a customer, Turkmenistan is losing an estimated $1 billion a month.

"Right now Turkmenistan is looking for any energy deal it can make with almost any player, because Russia's sudden halt to natural gas imports has cut off most of Ashgabat's cash flow," according to the U.S.-based security consultancy Stratfor.

Turkmenistan does not have a viable alternative export route and, warns Stratfor, "could go bankrupt if energy revenues do not start coming in from somewhere."

Moscow, which remains the dominant power in Central Asia, is unhappy about Turkmenistan's efforts to bring in new energy partners.

China, with its insatiable appetite for energy to fuel its expanding economy, is likely to take Russia's place. Russia does not want to see any challenge to its influence in Central Asia. Neighboring Iran is another energy-hungry prospect.

"The geography of Central Asia, the competition among its five countries for resources and the increasing competition among outside powers for Central Asian energy seem to indicate that a fight for the region's energy resources in inevitable," according to Stratfor.
(UPI)

MULTI-VECTOR ENERGY POLICY. (Una politica energetica multivettoriale)

2009-12-01T17:13:00.006+01:00

Kazakhstan wants to leave politics out of the equation and make a profit when dealing with the transport of hydrocarbons, the country’s foreign minister told five visiting western journalists at his lavish ministry in Astana.

“The fundamental principle from which we are proceeding on exporting our resources is the principle of economic feasibility - no politics there.

We have exported and will be exporting in any direction that is profitable for us,” Kanat Saudabayev said on 23 November. He was responding to a question from New Europe on whether the energy-rich former Soviet republic had any preference over Russian, Chinese or EU-bound projects competing for its rich oil and gas resources.

The relatively new foreign minister reminded that the Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan-China gas pipeline is due to be inaugurated on December 15 and there is already an oil pipeline from western Kazakhstan to western China. Kazakhstan also exports its oil through a whole system of pipelines running through Russia (CPC). Moreover, Kazakhstan ships oil through the Aktau-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline system.

“Given that we will be producing 170 million tons of oil out of which 130 million tons of oil will be available for exports it is in our deep interests to see the multiple export pipelines realized,” Saudabayev said. The bulk of the new volumes would come from Kashagan’s massive oil field, which plans to start commercial production around 2015. “Kazakhstan is and has been turning into a more significant player on the energy market for the European consumers and we will continue to export oil resources through those means that are profitable for us. Kazakhstan as a partner has always been distinguished by its reliability and predictability,” Saudabayev said.

The question is how this oil will be transported. There are several options, including the expansion of the CPC pipeline to Novorossiysk and also using the route to China.

Regarding the issue of bypassing the crowded Bosporus, the Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline seems to have stalled. Russia seems to prefer the Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline route through Turkey due to foot-dragging by Bulgaria but also to lure Turkey into supporting the South Stream gas pipeline over Nabucco, Chris Weafer, chief strategist at Uralsib bank, told New Europe from Moscow.

“I assume that both by-pass pipes will eventually be built to cut congestion in the Bosporus. Russia will want to send more shipping with non-oil cargos via the narrow channel as it expands the economy and operations at Novorossiysk port. So it needs to divert as much oil into pipes as possible as quickly as possible,” Weafer said. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev supported Samsun–Ceyhan during his latest visit to Turkey.

Asked by New Europe if Kazakhstan was economically interested in the Nabucco pipeline, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Economic Affairs and Budget Planning Bakhyt Sultanov said that his country is interested in different ways to export its oil and gas resources. “In the case of Nabucco the main question is resources. If we’ll have resources we can sell through Russia, through Nabucco, though our partners,” he said at the sidelines of a forum to discuss Kazakhstan’s OSCE chairmanship and its priorities.

For now, it seems as if Nabucco has been out-maneuvered by Russia and China and is in real danger of having nowhere to turn to for gas supplies. “The commercial case for South Stream and Nabucco looks increasingly unsound,” Weafer said. “They are both now political projects.”
(Gazeta.kz)

COMRADE NURSULTAN (Il compagno Nursultan)

2009-11-06T23:41:00.007+01:00

The Kazakh leader has negotiated to his colleague Giorgio Napolitano. The Presidents have discussed a wide range of issues. In particular, they have talked about the energy security of Europe and the special role of our republic in this issue. In addition, the heads of states have identified key directions of bilateral cooperation both in economic and political spheres. Italy is the third largest trading partner of Kazakhstan and the principal in the European Union. The Presidents have reported they are to sign an agreement on strategic partnership between Kazakhstan and Italy. This is a landmark event in the history of bilateral relations.

Giorgio Napolitano, President of the Italian Republic:
- Kazakhstan is a key state in Central Asia. Your republic is of exceptional importance for Europe, especially in matters of energy security. You will lead the OSCE the next year and it is a very important factor and a new stage in the development and strengthening of OSCE. I think that the status of the OSCE will rise from now on. I completely support the initiative of Nursultan Nazarbayev to convene, the OSCE heads of states for the big summit the next year. This is an excellent idea, because Kazakhstan is an example for the whole world. You have renounced nuclear weapons and you managed to create a tolerant society. It is very important in our time.

Nursultan Nazarbayev, President of the Republic of Kazakhstan:

- The Italian state is a major economic partner in the EU. One third of our trade turnover with Europe accounted for Italy. This is more than 14 billion dollars. Over the years, investments of Italian companies amounted to $4.5 billions, but the Kazakh companies have invested $1,5 billion.

(Khabar)

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Eni SpA (E, ENI.MI) Thursday said it signed a cooperation deal with KazMunaiGas for activities in Kazakhstan, as Italy's biggest energy company by revenue aims to boost its presence in the hydrocarbon-rich Caspian country.

The two companies signed a deal to jointly study the Isatay and Shagala exploration areas in the Caspian Sea, as well as industrial activities in Kazakhstan including a natural-gas sweetening plant, a gas-turbine power plant and the upgrading of the Pavlodar refinery.

Final investment decisions on these projects are expected within two years after the completion of detailed studies, Eni said.

The cooperation accord was signed in Rome in the presence of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev.

Eni is present in Kazakhstan with the large Kashagan oil field, which has been hit by delays and cost overruns. The company is also a cooperator in the Karachaganak field.
(Morningstar)

BERLUSCONI'S MOST IMPORTANT FLIRT (Il flirt più importante di Berlusconi)

2009-10-26T22:23:00.013+01:00

Silvio Berlusconi and Vladimir Putin, meeting in St Petersburg, have given new impetus to the race to supply gas to Europe. The Italian prime minister is joining his Russian counterpart in pushing the South Stream project over another pipeline backed by the EU. The announcement followed discussions by video phone with Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

South Stream, said Putin, had to be constructed quicker than North Stream, a third pipeline that will run under the Baltic Sea and then pass through Scandinavia. The Russian premier said it was possible because the three countries already had experience working together on another building project on Turkish soil, the Blue Stream construction.

South Stream is a joint project involving Russia’s Gazprom and Italy’s ENI. After running under the Black Sea, two possible routes are being studied to supply gas to western Europe.
The agreement was sealed back in August during a one-day visit by Vladimir Putin to Ankara. The Turkish prime minister said he saw South Stream as a parallel rather than a rival project to the EU-backed Nabucco pipeline – as both would be needed in the future.

(euronews)

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The three leaders had a comprehensive talk concerning the South Stream pipeline project, which is to be constructed jointly by Russia’s Gazprom and Italy’s Eni. Putin remarked that issues with Turkey had been resolved, referring to the announcement earlier this week of Turkey’s decision to allow geological exploration in its Black Sea economic zone as part of the South Stream project.

Berlusconi, who is currently in Russia, mentioned on Wednesday the cooperation between Turkey and Italy in the field of technology and the helicopter manufacturing plant that is being established in Turkey through an equal partnership between Italy’s Agusta and a Turkish company. Italy is ready to establish similar partnerships with Russia, too, he added. Berlusconi had also attended talks during Putin’s visit to Ankara on Aug. 6.

PM Erdoğan held a teleconference with Russian and Italian prime ministers on energy issues.
Earlier this week, Turkey, Russia and Italy signed a memorandum of understanding on the Samsun-Ceyhan oil pipeline in Milan. The project will be carried out by the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline Company (TAPCO) in which Italian energy company Eni and Turkish company Çalık Energy each hold a 50 percent stake.

The South Stream project is set to eventually run from Russia to Bulgaria under the Black Sea before delivering gas to consumers in Europe. The pipeline, with an annual capacity of 63 billion cubic meters, is planned to be operational in 2016, costing $11.6 billion.

(Today's Zaman)

LA ROUTE DE KASHAGAN

2009-10-10T18:27:00.011+02:00

Construction of 'Eskene-Kuryk' pipeline will be financed by French side on debt basis. Following the results of negotiations N. Nazarbayev and N. Sarkozy have signed a number of documents in oil-gas, space, military and atomic spheres today in Akorda.

"We agreed that the French side will take part in construction project of the export-oil-trunk pipeline. It is an extremely important project which is one of the principal artery of the transport system of the Kazakhstan's oil to Europe", - N. Nazarbayev said at the press-conference following the results of negotiations with N. Sarkozy.

Among signed documents are Memorandum on mutual understanding between Kazmunaigaz and SPIKAPAG Company on 'Eskene-Kuryk' pipeline. The document was signed by Chairman of Kazmunaigaz Kairgeldy Kabyldin and President of "Antrepoz Contracting" Dominic Bouvie.

As is known 'Eskene-Kuryk' is oriented firstly at Kashagan deposit.

According to Kazakh Minister of Energy and Mineral Recourses Sauat Mynbayev the amount of financing will be known after preparation of the project. "At the moment the limit amounted to USD 2.5 bln", - the Minister said. He also informed that 'Eskene-Kuryk' pipeline will be Kazakhstan's property.

President of France Nicolas Sarkozy has arrived with official visit to Kazakhstan on Tuesday. During his official visit N. Sarkozy met with the President of Kazakhstan in his residence. The President of France has acquainted with the master plan of the capital in the Palace of Independence.
(Kazinform)

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France and Kazakhstan have signed energy and business deals worth $6bn (£3.8bn) during a visit to Astana by French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Kazakhstan has large oil and gas fields and is Central Asia’s largest economy.

Among several accords signed between the two countries, Kazakstan’s Kazmunaigaz and France’s SPIE CAPAG (Entrepose Contracting) singed a draft agreement running from Eskene, onshore near Tengiz, to the port of Kuryk, near Aqtau.

This pipeline is part of the Caspian Transportation System. This pipeline will carry oil to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, turning it into the Aqtau-Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, going to the Turkish Mediterranean coast.
(Apa)

ASTANA SEEN FROM ROMANIA (Astana vista dalla Romania)

2009-09-15T11:25:00.004+02:00

The State Secretary of the Romanian Ministry of Economy, Tudor Sherban, spoke in an interview with Trend Capital correspondent.

Cooperation in energy was discussed during the eighth session of the Kazakh-Romanian inter-governmental commission on trade and economic cooperation in Astana today. You mentioned two projects - "Nabucco" and "Constanta - Trieste".

How does Romania appreciate Kazakhstan's participation in two these projects?

We think that the role of Kazakhstan in the Nabucco project is very important. Kazakhstan has its own gas reserves. It is known that Kazakhstan participates in some projects in Turkmenistan. So, certain gas reserves can be directed to the "Nabucco" from there.

Moreover, part of those gas volumes, which are under contracts with Russia, can be also supplied to "Nabucco". But it will be possible with the consent of all parties. The recent visit of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to Turkey encourages on this regards.

As Romania is involved in "Nabucco", I think that it will be possible to agree in coordination with other partners given other projects which Russia promotes in our region (the Balkans).

Azerbaijan is important partner for us in the Caspian region. it is our reliable gas supplier. We know that Azerbaijan has expressed its intention to participate with its gas in the Nabucco project. We welcome and fully support this decision. Moreover, Azerbaijan has strategically important location in the junction of transportation routes.

I would like to inform that Romania has plans to build a new terminal in Constanta for liquefied gas storage.

How do you appreciate Kazakhstan's participation in the project pipeline 'Constanta - Trieste'?

The Kazakh side made a request to participate in the negotiations on the project a year ago. It means for us that Kazakhstan is interested in participating in this project. At present, the project of "Constanta - Trieste" pipeline is at the stage of organizing. A consortium has been already established and its head has been appointed. But, unfortunately, one of the participants of the project - Croatia has blocked the course of negotiations and actions.

But the issue concerning drawing investments will occur soon, when goals of each company from the countries-participants of the project, through which the pipeline is laid, are defined.

From our point of view, Kazakhstan will be able to participate in this project, along with Romania. If it enters with investments, it will automatically mean that Kazakhstan can have certain package of shares.

What Kazakh share is indicated in the project?

It is difficult to name any specific figure without development of feasibility study. But when it is ready, it will be known about shares of all sides after determining the cost. Kazakhstan will be able to join the project as oil supplier in future. Thus, Kazakhstan can enter the center of Europe through Romania, providing its oil via Constanta - Trieste pipeline.

It dealt with establishment of energy bridge of Batumi - Constanta at one time. What are its prospects?

We hope that the geopolitical climate in the South Caucasus will stabilize. Georgia has great importance to ensure transit routes and gas, oil and other goods supplies, to Europe. We hope that the situation will normalize, because one can not talk about politics without economy, and Batumi is an important transportation hub in the region.

Moreover, the Black Sea and Batumi port are direct access to Europe. Therefore, stabilization of the situation in Georgia is in interests of the same Caspian countries to have direct access to the Black Sea.

How do you assess entry of the national KazMunaiGaz on the Romanian market by buying shares of Rompetrol?

Positively. At present, our companies, including the national oil company, OMV, faced with fierce competition in the person of KMG. But these are the laws of the market. It is very good. As a recommendation, I would like to advise KMG to be more transparent with the Romanian public authorities.
(Gazeta.kz)

THE NEW UKRAINE (La nuova Ucraina)

2009-09-10T10:45:00.003+02:00

Gazprom on Wednesday opened a new pipeline across Lithuania that will allow the Russian gas company to increase supplies to Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave between Lithuania and Poland.

It will also allow Gazprom to boost natural gas supplies to Lithuania, which is braced for an energy deficit after it closes a Soviet-era nuclear plant in December.

The opening of the pipeline — dubbed Red Junction — took place amid much fanfare near the Susepe River, located on the border between Lithuania and the Kaliningrad region.

The pipeline stretches 139 kilometers (86 miles) and will have a total annual capacity of 2.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas. Valery Golubev, Gazprom's deputy CEO, said the pipeline would allow the company to double gas supplies to the Kaliningrad region.

Viktoras Valentukevicius, head of Lithuania's gas company Lietuvos Dujos, said the pipeline was essential for the Baltic state.

"Natural gas will become a key energy resource for our country for decades. This line is very important for Lithuania as a guarantee of stable energy supplies from Russia," he said.

Lietuvos Dujos is 38.9 percent owned by Gazprom, the world's largest natural gas producer.

Many Lithuanians are apprehensive about the increasing reliance on Russian gas that the new pipeline signifies. In December Lithuania will shut down its Soviet-era reactor in Ignalina, which practically overnight will transform the Baltic state of 3.4 million people from a net energy exporter to an energy importer.

Since the country has no direct link to the European electricity grid, it has no choice but to import more energy from Russia.

But Moscow's snap decisions in the past to cut off supplies to Ukraine and Belarus, make many Lithuanians fear that Russia is an unreliable energy supplier.

"Vilnius should not forget that the Kremlin is using Gazprom not only as economic, but also a very efficient political tool," said Raimundas Lopata, director of the International Relations and Political Science Institute in Vilnius.

Gazprom said it expects to make the first shipments of gas in the new pipeline in December.
(Kyiv Post)

SUSPICIOUS SILENCE. (Silenzio sospetto)

2009-08-25T10:59:00.012+02:00

The recent signing of the Nabucco pipeline project is definitely a political rather than economic deal. Its feasibility, the probability of its actual construction and its profitability aside, the deal shows clearly that, at least for the present, those who want to see a weaker Russia prevail over those who would rather see it strong and an integral part of the West. It is also obvious that without heavy Washington lobbying the Nabucco pipeline would never take off. Since there is practically no economic interest for the U.S. in it, Washington politics make the direction of the much advertised "reset" quite uncertain.

In the last 20 years since the collapse of communism every U.S. president has kept repeating that it is in American interests to see Russia as a strong, democratic, and prosperous nation. But actions rarely suit the words. Washington needs, and often gets, Moscow’s cooperation on major security issues, but then it turns around and does its damnedest not only to prevent “non-democratic” and “authoritarian” Moscow from becoming an energy superpower, but to make sure that it gets as little cash as possible -- by diverting this cash to former Soviet republics where democracy is so rudimentary as to be barely discernible, while Oriental despotism, sometimes hereditary, is very much in evidence. So much for the hugely advertised U.S. democracy promotion mission.

OK, let us forget about democracy and get to real things. Has in the end Russia lost this round? What about another important problem for Nabucco - the Iranian connection? It is more or less obvious that this new pipeline will be extremely difficult to fill. If one excludes Russian and Iranian gas it would be practically impossible to do. That is why Turkey insisted that both Russia and Iran should be on the list of gas suppliers but then the whole idea of Nabucco of eliminating Russia from the supply equation did not materialize. Pretty soon the Nabucco lobbyists will have to face squarely some unpleasant questions: Why we should spend billions to enrich Iran or Russia? The next question will be what if both Russia and Iran say that they are not interested since they already have other gas delivery contracts through different routes? Will Nabucco actually bring Russia and Iran closer together to manipulate not only the gas supply line but geopolitics?

Russia provided so much help to U.S. and NATO in Afghanistan. It can do a lot more in Iran since practically the whole Iranian nuclear program is dependent on Russia, which makes RF the best guarantor of it being used for peaceful rather than military purposes.

Of course, Russia made a mistake in accepting Ahmadinejad’s claim for victory in the recent elections a bit too soon. The Iranian opposition is not crushed yet, and the final outcome is not too certain. More and more political leaders and even mullahs are switching sides. The Kremlin would be well advised to show some restraint or at least neutrality, to avoid a future backlash.

Another interesting observation is that Ukrainians, Poles and Balts are suspiciously quiet. They were quite vocal in protesting against the Nord Stream Project to connect Russia with Germany through the Baltic Sea. Ukraine was the most vocal opponent since Nord Stream will bypass it, thus depriving Kiev of the much needed currency and of any chance of blackmailing Russia by delaying gas payments. The Nabucco pipeline -- if it is ever built, of course -- will also bypass Ukraine, but so far it looks like their leaders do not seem to mind. Moreover, they are cheerleading it, so is there some secret protocol to Nabucco regarding Ukraine?

To sum up, the way things are now, the Nabucco project may end up as a hot air balloon, for its economics are pretty questionable while the politics surrounding it smells very bad indeed.

However, one good thing for Russia is that Nabucco should force it to be more aggressive in building the alternative Nord Stream and South Stream pipelines and at the same time spare no effort on its economy diversification so as not to depend too much on its natural resources.
As for Nabucco cheer leaders it is to early for them to celebrate. At the present time I’d not advise to buy the pipeline stocks to anyone but instead want to repeat to some narrow-minded folks that it is a lot more advantageous to have Russia as a friend rather than foe.
(Russia Blog)

RUSSIAN-TURKISH BARGAINING CHIPS (Merce di scambio russo-turca)

2009-08-08T16:21:00.008+02:00

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's August 6 visit to Ankara marked a new era for "enhanced multi-dimensional partnership," between Ankara and Moscow. Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan signed some twenty agreements covering energy, trade and other fields. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi also attended part of the talks between Erdogan and Putin, considering the involvement of Italian companies in some of these projects. The most remarkable dimension of the various joint projects concerns energy cooperation, most notably Turkey's expression of support for Russia's South Stream project.

In oil transportation, Russia committed to participate in the planned Samsun-Ceyhan pipeline (SCP), connecting the Turkish Black Sea city of Samsun to the Mediterranean terminal Ceyhan. Turkey has solicited Russian participation in the SCP, which will bypass the congested Turkish Straits. Moscow has proven reluctant, and has instead promoted another bypass option through Burgas-Alexandroupolis between Bulgaria and Greece. Meanwhile, Turkey took further steps to make the SCP attractive for the Russian side, by linking this project with the Turkish-Israeli-Indian energy partnership.

Erdogan expressed his pleasure with the Russian decision to commit its crude. Ankara can consider this development as its greatest success in this grand bargain, given that Turkey has worked to convert Ceyhan, where the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline also terminates, into a global energy hub. However, Putin did not rule out interest in Burgas-Alexandroupolis, and instead emphasized that the two pipelines might be complementary in meeting the growing demand for export routes. This statement raises questions about how committed Russia will be to the SCP, given that Russian companies own the majority of shares in the other Burgas-Alexandroupolis option.

In terms of gas cooperation, Turkey will allow Russia to conduct explorations and feasibility studies in the Turkish exclusive economic zone in the Black Sea, as part of Russian plans to construct South Stream. Since this move comes against the background of Turkey's decision to sign the rival Nabucco pipeline agreement last month, it raises many questions, as to how it will affect Nabucco, which Turkey considers a "strategic priority," as well as European energy security issues. Despite the questions surrounding its feasibility and high costs, as well as its negative implications for Nabucco, Erdogan maintained that both projects contribute to diversification efforts.

It appears that the "grand bargain" was between the SCP and Blue Stream. Ahead of the meeting, Yuri Ushakov, the Deputy Head of the Russian Government Staff said that "Turkey made concessions in South Stream and we made concessions in SCP," but added that he had doubts over the SCP's feasibility. A statement from Berlusconi's office also claimed that he had helped broker a rapprochement between both countries on these two issues. However, domestically, there are concerns that in this "exchange" of concessions, Turkey did not gain much. The SCP's importance was inflated, because it was developed by business interests close to the government. Another gas deal concerned Ankara's request to renew the contract under which it purchases Russian gas through the Western pipeline via the Balkans. Erdogan announced that the contract (which expires in 2011) will be renewed for 20 years. Turkey had complained about the high prices and the leave-or-pay conditions in its gas deals with Russia. Putin said it was renewed on favorable terms to Turkey, but the contract's details are unclear.

Erdogan also said that they discussed the extension of Blue Stream II to transport Russian gas to Israel, Lebanon and even Cyprus. Blue Stream, running underneath the Black Sea, is the second route carrying Russian gas to Turkey. Moscow previously raised the possibility that it could use Blue Stream II in order to transport gas to Europe, but this option was rejected, since it contradicted Nabucco and Russia sought to use Turkey only as a transportation route. Now, Ankara wants to revive it as part of a North-South corridor. Based on the leaders' statements, it appears that the existing capacity of Blue Stream might be improved and gas could be transferred to the Mediterranean through this pipeline.

However, although Erdogan praised this development as another major success, there is no guarantee that Russia will grant "re-export rights," which indicates that if Blue Stream II is implemented, Moscow will continue to view Turkish territory as a mere conduit for its gas, which raises the question: how will Turkey benefit from the agreement? Russian priorities also involve Turkey's first nuclear power plant tender, which was awarded to a Russian-Turkish consortium. As the original price was too high, the tender has long awaited cabinet approval. Meanwhile, the Russian side lowered the price, and offered a compromise. Prior to Putin's visit, it was expected that with further "bargaining," a final deal might be reached, but apparently it failed. Nevertheless, Ankara and Moscow signed protocols regarding energy cooperation, including the use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, early notification of accidents, exchange of information on facilities, and to continue talks on the nuclear tender.

The most controversial development is perhaps Ankara's support for South Stream. Erdogan reiterated his belief that Nabucco and South Stream are complementary, yet turned a blind eye to several Russian officials' (including Putin) statements to the contrary. It is assumed in Ankara that growing European energy demand will accommodate both projects; but this ignores the competition between both projects over the same downstream markets. Moreover, the Turkish side fails to appreciate the challenges Russia is facing in investing in its domestic gas industry, and acts on the assumption that "Russia has enormous reserves," while failing to realize that Russia is also planning to tap into the same upstream producers, namely Central Asian and Caspian gas, just as the Nabucco project envisages.

Putin also added that a consensus was reached on Russia building gas storage facilities in the Salt Lake. Taken together with the announced joint investments between Turkish and Russian firms, including Gazprom, it is unclear whether the Turkish government recognizes the consequences of these decisions. Russia has effectively used the practice of co-opting the gas infrastructure of transport and consumer countries, as part of its efforts to monopolize downstream markets. It is unclear how this penetration into the Turkish grid might affect Ankara's future energy policies.
(Jamestown)

LET THE COURT DECIDE (Lasciamo decidere la corte)

2009-07-28T11:48:00.012+02:00

The unexpected and sudden renewal of the Turkmen-Azerbaijani dispute over three hydrocarbon fields in the middle of the Caspian Sea is the latest setback to the European Union's Nabucco gas-pipeline project.

An argument over ownership of the Caspian fields had soured Turkmen-Azerbaijani relations for more than a decade. But over the last two years, representatives of the two countries -- prodded by EU and U.S. officials -- had been meeting regularly, reviving hopes that Nabucco could be realized.

Those hopes took a hit on July 24 when Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov cited a report from Deputy Foreign Minister Toyly Komekov during a cabinet meeting.

Berdymukhammedov said the report showed that the impasse over the demarcation of the Caspian seabed between the two countries has remained unresolved "due to Azerbaijan's specific position. The main reason behind this situation is that there are mineral deposits located exactly in the disputed areas of the Caspian Sea. Azerbaijan claims ownership of these deposits, including the deposit known as Promezhutochnoyee during the Soviet era and which we now call our Serdar deposit."

Berdymukhammedov went on to mention the Omar and Osman fields, which he said Azerbaijan is already exploring but which, he claimed, "belong to us." The Turkmen president expressed regret that 16 bilateral meetings had not resolved the issue and then instructed Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov to take the issue to "the International Court of Arbitration."

That could present a major obstacle to the European Union's Nabucco plans. The proposed 3,300-kilometer pipeline starts at Georgia's western border and then heads toward Europe via Turkey. Nabucco wants to include Central Asian gas in the pipeline, particularly gas from Turkmenistan, which has one of the world's largest reserves of natural gas.

For some 15 years now the plan was to construct a "trans-Caspian" pipeline along the Caspian seabed from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan, where it would be join a pipeline leading to Georgia's western border. But the dispute between Ashgabat and Baku over ownership of the three Caspian fields made construction of this pipeline impossible.

The recent warming of ties between the two countries, including a visit by Berdymukhammedov to Baku last year, raised hopes the pipeline could finally be built.

On state television on July 25, Deputy Foreign Minister Xalaf Xalafov indicated Azerbaijan was prepared to have a court decide on the ownership issue. "We believe that we are ready to defend Azerbaijan's position and rights on all levels," Xalafov said.

Ilham Shaban, an Azerbaijan-based energy expert and the editor of the "Turan Energy" daily newsletter, tells RFE/RL's Turkmen Service that after years of this dispute, a court ruling may be the most "civilized" means of ending the stalemate.

"And to take this matter before a court is a natural step and we also hope the court will render a fair verdict," Shaban says.

Shaban adds that a resolution of the ownership question could then pave the way for dramatic improvement in Turkmen-Azerbaijani ties, which in turn opens up the way for projects like Nabucco. Nabucco foresees that the lion's share of the proposed 31 billion cubic meters of gas for the pipeline would come from Turkmenistan.

"I feel that this court will render a decision that will bring our countries even closer together if Ashgabat and Baku will observe and accept the decision of the International Arbitration Court," he says.

Shaban concedes that if the two countries do not show flexibility and maintain the rigid posturing that has marred bilateral ties for so long, the court case could drag on for years and endanger the construction of the trans-Caspian pipeline and also Nabucco.
(rferl)

RELY ON ALIYEV (Dipendere da Aliyev)

2009-07-17T20:58:00.007+02:00

On July 13, the EU and Turkey signed what's been hailed as a historic deal to start work on the Nabucco pipeline, which is designed to give Europe an alternative to the unreliable supply of natural gas from Russia's Gazprom.

On paper, it's simple. By 2014, the Nabucco pipeline should be complete, and Azerbaijan will be the first, or at least among the first, to begin shipping gas to Europe at a modest rate of 8 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year.

The pipeline -- which will run 3,300 kilometers from eastern Turkey, through the Balkans, and finally to Austria -- should be fully operational by 2020, at which time it is expected to be pumping 31 bcm of gas to Europe each year, or approximately 10 percent of Europe's annual gas consumption.

That would relieve Europe of the risk of relying on Russia for gas, although the EU says that's not the point. But privately, EU officials say the continent has to find an alternative source, given Russia's recurring price disputes with transit country Ukraine that last winter left Europe struggling with a gas shortage.

Yet there are questions as to whether Azerbaijan can meet its annual commitment of gas. Baku says it has enough to get the pipeline going, but estimates of its reserves are just that: estimates.

Stephen Blank, who is a professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Army War College, says the issue is not whether Azerbaijan has an adequate supply of gas to get Nabucco started, but whether the country can afford to finish the project and will be able to resist pressure from Russia.

While Blank acknowledges that one issue is the question whether the Nabucco project has the financial muscle to "give their suppliers credible guarantees that a pipeline can be built from their country, through the Caspian Sea or [somewhere] else [in] Europe, and will it stand up to Russia?

"It looks like it will stand up to Russia, but the financing has to be there," he continues. "These are arranged marriages, and like arranged marriages, they're supposed to last a long time, so they take a long time to negotiate."

Blank says these political and economic risks merge into one overall risk: That Russia may persuade Azerbaijan to withhold its gas from Nabucco, and as a result, perhaps no one in the region will step up to supply financing for the pipeline.

If that happens, he says, Russia will have won a significant battle in what he calls an economic war that Russia has been waging on Europe.

"If Nabucco can't be built, [Russia's] South Stream [pipeline project] or the Russian pipeline through Ukraine and Belarus become the only option to the south. And Russia gets the ability to play the great power game and leverage its power in Europe as a gas power," Blank notes.

He says Moscow has "nothing else they can use [but] a lot of economic and political intrigue. It's nasty, it's brutal, but it's mainly economic. It's not guns and troops moving over borders. But it's hard power."

Azerbaijan isn't the only source of gas for Nabucco. EU officials are reluctant to discuss alternatives to Azerbaijan, but they have to be considered, says Kenneth Green, who studies energy issues at the American Enterprise Institute, a private Washington policy center.

But Green stresses that not all alternatives can be considered equally, either because of how much -- or little -- gas they can generate, and for political reasons as well.

He points to Iran and Iraq as good examples. Both are said to have generous gas reserves, but for the immediate future, he says, Iraq is a far more reliable source of gas than Iran, at least from a political standpoint.

"We have an interest in helping Iraq get back on its feet and realize revenues for rebuilding through [the] sale of natural gas and because they are, at least titularly now, they're a democratic regime that's going to be friendly to the West. One has a greater expectation that they won't play games politically with the supply," Green says.

"But when you have Iran, which is under sanctions already because of its nuclear program, is making threats to U.S. allies and to European allies -- I mean, going from Gazprom to depending on Iran is like going from the frying pan into the fire."

Green says it's also possible that, given its recent electoral trouble, Iran, too, may have a change of government and become a reliable source of gas, even if its foreign policy were to remain contrary to Western interests. That's because now, Iran lets ideology rule its economy.

Iran can maintain its current ideology -- including a harsh foreign policy toward Israel, plus support for militant groups such as Hamas and Hizballah -- if it separates politics from economics. In other words, it could do business with the EU, with which it has strong disagreements, as long as it makes a profit doing so.

Iran aside, Green says other Caspian states -- Kazakhstan and, in particular, Turkmenistan -- might be even better alternatives to Azerbaijan than Iran. But these countries also are former Soviet republics, and Russia may be able to persuade them to run their gas through Russian pipelines, not through Nabucco.

Like Blank, Green says there are so many options, so many countries, and so many other variables involved that it would be foolhardy to try to anticipate what will happen with Nabucco -- even whether it will eventually be built.
(rferl)

WILL THEY PLAY NABUCCO? (Suoneranno il Nabucco?)

2009-07-09T16:17:00.005+02:00

A raft of transit agreements to be signed on Monday by the architects of the planned Nabucco natural gas pipeline will give some much-needed shape to the pipeline which has been delayed due to infighting.

But critics of the 7.9 billion euro ($11 billion) pipeline, which plans to pump 31 billion cubic metres of natural gas to Europe by 2014, say the meeting will do little to stop a Russian-backed pipeline from gaining ground on the Europe-backed project.

The agreement will be signed by five members of the six-country Nabucco consortium through which the pipeline is planned to run. They are: Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Austria. The sixth country, Germany, does not have a transit role.

The five transit countries are likely to agree on a series of legally binding conditions as well as agree on where the pipeline will begin. Turkey has demanded that the line start near Ankara, but other possibilities include Georgia and Azerbaijan.

Security for the pipeline will also be ironed out in the agreement, an important condition for easternmost Nabucco member Turkey, which will be responsible for preventing attacks on the pipeline. Last year the ethnic separatist group Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) carried out an attack on the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, halting supplies.

One of the thorniest issues that has not yet been worked out is a demand from the Turkish side for the right to use 15 percent of its gas for domestic use or for re-export. That issue will all but certainly not be resolved in this agreement, but rather will be worked out separately.

Turkey's Energy Minister Taner Yildiz has said Turkey will not back down from the demand, but the European Energy Commission has also stated that the demand is unacceptable. Analysts say the demand makes the pipeline commercially unfeasible as supply countries will be unwilling to sell discounted gas to Turkey.

Nabucco was conceived as a way to decrease Europe's dependence on Russian natural gas after Moscow turned off its gas to Ukraine in 2006 in what was seen at the time as a political conflict. Fear of future suppliers using energy as a political weapon strengthened the case for the Nabucco.

Monday's agreements, although they will not address the more divisive issues, will most likely boost investor sentiment in the plan, which is suffering due to the economic global downturn and lack of gas throughput supplies for the line.

Nabucco may also gain more seriousness in the eyes of gas suppliers. "It might come as a good sign for countries that will be potential suppliers, giving them an indication that Nabucco is more serious than they might have thought," said Ana Jelenkovic at Eurasia Group.

Working out Turkey's 15 percent demands, however, would help put the Nabucco substantially ahead of the Russian-backed South Stream pipeline in that the Nabucco Consortium could then begin work on the open season, when firms buy up portions of the pipeline's capacity for consumers.

The South Stream, which has increased its capacity expectations to 63 billion cubic metres, edged ahead of Nabucco late last month when gas-producer Azerbaijan said it would give Russia priority in buying gas when the second phase of its Shakh-Deniz gas production project came online.

No concrete deals have yet been signed for Nabucco, and none are expected to be signed until all transit details are worked out among its members. A lack of supply agreements have hampered political will and financing, analysts say.

The Nabucco Consortium has mentioned Egypt, Azerbaijan and possibly Russia and Turkmenistan as sources for gas. Iran can participate in the pipeline if Washington normalises relations with Tehran, the U.S. Secretary of State's Special Envoy for Eurasian Energy said earlier this year.
(Georgiandaily)

ALL EYES ON ANKARA (Occhi puntati su Ankara)

2009-07-09T14:26:00.005+02:00

Azerbaijan, once the cradle of Russia's fledgling oil industry, wants the best deal possible for the natural gas craved by European consumers keen to reduce their energy dependence on Moscow.

But Europe needs assurances that gas from below the Caspian Sea will flow through costly new pipelines. Resolving the political stalemate, including a key transit deal with Turkey, will determine when Azerbaijan can start pumping more gas. "We are increasingly seeing infrastructure projects that are driven by politics, not business," said Sveinung Dankel, Statoil Hydro Azerbaijan's lead negotiator for gas transportation.

"The Nabucco project is a case in point. Clearly an important link is missing: the sourcing of gas," he said.

Azerbaijan, which plans to produce 45 percent more gas by 2015, could potentially supply much of the gas to fill the Western-backed Nabucco pipeline, an alternative route for European consumers reliant on Russia for a quarter of their gas.

But Azerbaijan, which has yet to agree on the amount of gas Turkey would take from the pipeline, has other options. As well as other routes through the 'Southern Corridor' to Europe, Baku could also sell its gas to Russia, Georgia or Iran.

Azeri President Ilham Aliyev, addressing the 16th Caspian International Oil and Gas Conference in Baku this week, said the energy sector had become very politicised.

"If we are negotiating sales and purchase contracts, the price should be reasonable. If the issue of transit is on the table, we should also get a reasonable price," Aliyev said.

For Western producers and consumers alike, the delays are a cause for concern.

The second phase of the Shah Deniz field could potentially supply 16 billion cubic metres a year, half of Nabucco's planned capacity, but project leaders StatoilHydro and BP cannot commit to a start date until contracts are signed.

"First come the politics, then comes the industry. Set the framework and the industry will do the rest," said Robert Klein, managing director of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline, an alternative route to southern Europe.

"This is what politics can do: a clear statement in Azerbaijan that gas is flowing to Europe; a clear statement from Turkey about transit terms and conditions; a clear statement from the EU that it's bringing in gas from new resources in the Caspian region."

Azeri state energy firm Socar says gas production could rise to 34 billion cubic metres by 2015 from 23.4 bcm last year. Annual exports could exceed 30 bcm within 10 to 15 years, said Kristian Hausken, president of StatoilHydro Azerbaijan.

Europe will need to import between 400 and 450 bcm annually by 2020, up from 267 bcm in 2007, said Elio Ruggeri, business development director at Edison SpA and project director for another pipeline alternative, ITGI.

The Caspian region could supply about half of the additional volumes, he said, with Azerbaijan in pole position to start flows ahead of Turkmenistan and other Central Asian states.

Interest in Azeri gas, particularly from the second phase of Shah Deniz, is strong. Elshad Nasirov, vice-president for investment and marketing at Azeri state energy firm Socar, said Russia, Iran and Georgia had all offered to buy the field's gas.

"We will consider all proposals," Nasirov told Reuters. Socar is also a shareholder in Shah Deniz, as well as Russia's LUKOIL, France's Total and Iranian and Turkish state firms.

Observers say a transit deal between Azerbaijan and Turkey will play a large role in determining whether Azeri gas will flow into Nabucco or other European pipelines, or north into Russia -- an option the Shah Deniz partners have not discounted.

Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said this week Ankara had not given up its demand to take 15 percent of the gas to be carried by the Nabucco pipeline, either for domestic demand or for re-export. Azerbaijan has previously opposed such a plan.

"It's critical that Azerbaijan and Turkey reach an agreement on pricing and on transit in the near future that will give confidence to the project," said Richard Morningstar, the U.S. Secretary of State's Special Envoy for Eurasian Energy.

A partner in the Shah Deniz project, speaking on condition of anonymity, was more blunt: "If we don't reach agreement with Turkey, we'll sell to Russia."
(Georgiandaily)

ASSAULT AT PAVLODAR (Assalto a Pavlodar)

2009-07-03T10:59:00.000+02:00

KazMunaiGas (KMG) is still in talks with Central Asia Petroleum, an Indonesian company which controls the Pavlodar oil refinery, trying to close the deal that would give the national oil company control over the downstream assets in Kazakhstan.

In April, Central Asia Petroleum, a murky entity with supposed ties to Kazakh leadership, agreed to sell its upstream assets to a joint venture of KMG and Chinese CNPC for $3.3 billion. These exploration assets were part of MangistauMunaiGas, an independent vertically integrated oil company, whose other assets included a 58-percent stake in the Pavlodar oil refinery and a network of gasoline stations operating under the brand Helios.

MangistauMunaiGas was one of the largest independent oil producers in Kazakhstan, and its acquisition was a coup for both the Chinese and the Kazakh side, eager to increase their reserves. The Pavlodar refinery, however, was excluded from the deal, leading to speculation over who will gain control over the valuable downstream asset, or rather, who will join KMG in managing the refinery.

Analysts estimate the market value of the refinery at $600-700 million. A similar sum would probably be needed to modernize the plant. KMG, while eager to solidify its control over Kazakhstan’s refining assets, may have to rely on a deep-pocketed partner to complete the acquisition and much needed modernization.

In the last twelve years, the refinery underwent numerous changes in ownership. In 1997, the Kazakh government awarded a five-year concession to operate the plant to CCL Oil Ltd., an unknown oil company registered in Connecticut but rumored to be run by a group of ethnic Korean businessman from Kazakhstan. At that time, the state owned 82 percent of the plant while the remaining 12 percent were owned by its employees. Shortly after awarding the concession, however, the government transferred the asset to Kazakhoil, a state-owned predecessor of KazMunaiGas, and power struggle over control over the company ensued. In 1999, CCL Oil Ltd. found itself on the losing side of the battle and was stripped of the concession, ostensibly for failing to fulfill its contractual obligations. Later that year, 58 percent of the company has been quietly transferred to MangistauMunaiGas, reportedly as a barter payment to cover government’s debt with the company.

The Pavlodar oil refinery, constructed in 1978, currently has capacity of about five million tons of crude oil per year. This is almost 30 percent below its original capacity of seven million tons due to wear and poor maintenance. Even then, the plant does not operate at full capacity and refined only 4.27 million tons of crude oil in 2008.

Nonetheless, as the largest and most modern refining facility in Kazakhstan, it produces more than 50 percent of high-octane fuels. Among its products are high-octane gasoline (93 RON and 05 RON), diesel and heating fuel, mazut, liquid gas etc. Automobile gasoline and diesel fuel make up the largest share of its production. In 2008, the refinery produced about 1.2 million tons of gasoline, almost 50 percent of the country’s entire production. However, its products do not comply with the strict international standards which have gradually begun to be introduced in Kazakhstan.

Moreover, the refinery’s location in Pavlodar, near the Russian border in northern Kazakhstan, makes it logistically difficult to refine Kazakh crude produced in western Kazakhstan, where most of the country’s oil production is located. In fact, during the Soviet times, the plant refined almost exclusively Russian crude from the West Siberian oil fields.

Analysts warn that by 2014 Kazakhstan’s existing refining capacity will be insufficient to satisfy the growing demands for refined oil products. In the last two years, Kazakhstan has already experienced localized shortages despite its vast hydrocarbon wealth, leading to calls for government intervention. The modernization of the country’s refining industry is therefore a priority of the government.

Russian Gazprom Neft and LUKOIL, Indian ONGC and Chinese CNPC figured early as potential partners for the project. A Russian company would be a logical partner given the traditional ties of the Pavlodar refinery to the Russian oil industry. At the same time, however, China’s state-run oil companies may be the only ones willing and able to invest billions in Kazakhstan’s downstream assets. China has already advanced $10 billion in loans to Kazakhstan this year to gain a stronger foothold in the country’s oil industry, as it has done in Russia and Brazil.

Yet, China, while keen to enhance its access to reserves and diversify its supplies, may not show the same level of interest to a downstream asset oriented primarily on the domestic market. The Kazakhstan-China oil pipeline, which has been completed ahead of schedule this June, will have a capacity of 20 million tons per year. Filling the completed pipeline will likely be a priority for Chinese oil companies in Kazakhstan. Moreover, China already has a major oil refinery in western China near Urumchi with refining capacity of 6 million tons a year, projected to rise to 10 million.

(Silk Road Intelligencer)

THE END OF THE THIRD PART (Fine della terza parte)

2009-07-03T10:43:00.000+02:00

Kazakhstan’s KazStroyService has completed the construction of the Kenkiyak-Kumkol pipeline, giving China direct access to Kazakhstan’s oil provinces in western Kazakhstan, Reuters reported citing an announcement by KazStroyService.

KazStroyService reportedly successfully completed the first test oil shipment.

The Kenkiyak-Kumkol link is the third part of the so-called Kazakhstan-China pipeline which runs from Atyrau near the Caspian Sea to Alashankou in China’s northwestern Xinjiang region. The first stage of the project was completed in 2003 and runs westward across Western Kazakhstan from the oil fields of the Aktobe region to Atyrau. This line will be reversed when all stages are complete. The second stage from Atasu, in northwestern Kazakhstan, to Alashankou was completed in 2006. The newly completed Kenkiyak-Kumkol pipeline will connect the two links and will give China access to CNPC’s Aktobe and Kumkol fields and the newly acquired MangistauMunaiGas upstream assets.

Kazakhstan and China agreed to build the 3,000 km pipeline in 1997 and have said they would later double the capacity of the combined pipeline from the current 10 million tons a year.

China extended a $10-billion loan to Kazakhstan in April in exchange for greater access to the country’s hydrocarbon wealth. Already, with CNPC’s recent purchase of a 50-percent stake in MangistauMunaiGas, China’s share in Kazkahstan’s oil production amounts to 22 percent, a local financial newspaper reported recently citing government data.

China is also building a pipeline to import up to 40 billion cubic meters of Central Asian gas a year. The link originates in Turkmenistan and goes through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
(Silk Road Intelligencer)

CHINA CHOOSES TURKMENISTAN (La Cina sceglie il Turkmenistan)

2009-06-27T12:36:00.000+02:00

China National Petroleum Corporation signed a 30-year deal to increase purchases of natural gas from Turkmenistan by 30 percent, Chinese media reported - a landmark agreement for Beijing as it competes with Moscow for access to Central Asia's energy wealth.

"This agreement is very important for ensuring a stable, long-term and adequate supply of gas for this pipeline," Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang said at an official signing ceremony, according to the state-run newspaper Neutral Turkmenistan.

Li Keqiang met with his Turkmen counterpart to sign the contract, which increases gas deliveries to 40 billion cubic meters (52 billion cubic yards) annually, the newspaper reported.

The deal comes amid strained relations between Turkmenistan and Russia, which usually buys most of the Turkmen gas for onward sale in Ukraine and Europe.

Turkmenistan lashed out against Russia following an explosion in April at a gas pipeline linking both countries, and it appears Moscow underestimated the fallout from that event, notes U.K. newspaper The Guardian.

With the agreement, China has moved one more step along its bid for Central Asia’s energy resources — and ultimately toward expanding its geopolitical influence over the wider region.

Moscow, previously a major purchaser of Turkmen gas, could be losing out to cash-rich China in the race to secure energy commitments in Central Asia.

Earlier this year, Russia moved to reduce its gas imports from Turkmenistan because of plunging demand and prices in Europe.

China sees Turkmenistan as a more politically reliable supplier than Russia, which has a well-known tendency to use energy as leverage for geopolitical concessions. Furthermore, pre-existing infrastructure in Turkmenistan means the Turkmen deal could prove cheaper than the Russian deal, even if Turkmen natural gas is more expensive. And finally, China wants access to Central Asia’s energy, and Turkmenistan is a critical piece of the pie.

Meanwhile, China appears ready to invest some $3 billion to develop the South Yolotan gas field, one of the world's largest as Russian gas monopoly Gazprom announces a 30 percent cut in capital investments.

Turkmenistan holds more than 700 trillion cubic feet of estimated natural gas reserves.

Work on a 7,000-kilometer (4,300-mile) pipeline from Turkmenistan to China is expected to be finished by the end of the year.
(MosNews)

WELCOME TO PIPELINEISTAN! (Benvenuti nel Pipelineistan!)

2009-06-20T13:11:00.001+02:00

What happens on the immense battlefield for the control of Eurasia will provide the ultimate plot line in the tumultuous rush towards a new, polycentric world order, also known as the New Great Game.

Our good ol' friend the nonsensical "global war on terror", which the Pentagon has slyly rebranded "the Long War", sports a far more important, if half-hidden, twin - a global energy war. I like to think of it as the Liquid War, because its bloodstream is the pipelines that crisscross the potential imperial battlefields of the planet. Put another way, if its crucial embattled frontier these days is the Caspian Basin, the whole of Eurasia is its chessboard. Think of it, geographically, as Pipelineistan.

All geopolitical junkies need a fix. Since the second half of the 1990s, I've been hooked on pipelines. I've crossed the Caspian in an Azeri cargo ship just to follow the $4 billion Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan pipeline, better known in this chess game by its acronym, BTC, through the Caucasus. (Oh, by the way, the map of Pipelineistan is chicken-scratched with acronyms, so get used to them!)

I've also trekked various of the overlapping modern Silk Roads, or perhaps Silk Pipelines, of possible future energy flows from Shanghai to Istanbul, annotating my own do-it-yourself routes for LNG (liquefied natural gas). I used to avidly follow the adventures of that once-but-not-future Sun-King of Central Asia, the now deceased Turkmenbashi or "leader of the Turkmen", Saparmurat Niyazov, head of the immensely gas-rich Republic of Turkmenistan, as if he were a Conradian hero.

In Almaty, the former capital of Kazakhstan (before it was moved to Astana, in the middle of the middle of nowhere) the locals were puzzled when I expressed an overwhelming urge to drive to that country's oil boomtown Aktau. ("Why? There's nothing there.") Entering the Space Odyssey-style map room at the Russian energy giant Gazprom's headquarters in Moscow - which digitally details every single pipeline in Eurasia - or the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC)'s corporate HQ in Tehran, with its neat rows of female experts in full chador, was my equivalent of entering Aladdin's cave. And never reading the words "Afghanistan" and "oil" in the same sentence is still a source of endless amusement for me.

Last year, oil cost a king's ransom. This year, it's relatively cheap. But don't be fooled. Price isn't the point here. Like it or not, energy is still what everyone who's anyone wants to get their hands on. So consider this dispatch just the first installment in a long, long tale of some of the moves that have been, or will be, made in the maddeningly complex New Great Game, which goes on unceasingly, no matter what else muscles into the headlines this week.

Forget the mainstream media's obsession with al-Qaeda, Osama "dead or alive" bin Laden, the Taliban - neo, light or classic - or that "war on terror", whatever name it goes by. These are diversions compared to the high-stakes, hardcore geopolitical game that follows what flows along the pipelines of the planet.

Who said Pipelineistan couldn't be fun? In his 1997 magnum opus The Grand Chessboard, Zbigniew Brzezinski - realpolitik practitioner extraordinaire and former national security advisor to Jimmy Carter, the president who launched the US on its modern energy wars - laid out in some detail just how to hang on to American "global primacy". Later, his master plan would be duly copied by that lethal bunch of Dr No's congregated at Bill Kristol's Project for a New American Century (PNAC, in case you'd forgotten the acronym since its website and its followers went down).

For Dr Zbig, who, like me, gets his fix from Eurasia - from, that is, thinking big - it all boils down to fostering the emergence of just the right set of "strategically compatible partners" for Washington in places where energy flows are strongest. This, as he so politely put it back then, should be done to shape "a more cooperative trans-Eurasian security system".

By now, Dr Zbig - among whose fans is evidently President Barack Obama - must have noticed that the Eurasian train which was to deliver the energy goods has been slightly derailed. The Asian part of Eurasia, it seems, begs to differ.

Global financial crisis or not, oil and natural gas are the long-term keys to an inexorable transfer of economic power from the West to Asia. Those who control Pipelineistan - and despite all the dreaming and planning that's gone on there, it's unlikely to be Washington - will have the upper hand in whatever is to come, and there's not a terrorist in the world, or even a "long war", that can change that.

Energy expert Michael Klare has been instrumental in identifying the key vectors in the wild, ongoing global scramble for power over Pipelineistan. These range from the increasing scarcity (and difficulty of reaching) primary energy supplies to "the painfully slow development of energy alternatives". Though you may not have noticed, the first skirmishes in Pipelineistan's Liquid War are already on, and even in the worst of economic times, the risk mounts constantly, given the relentless competition between the West and Asia, be it in the Middle East, in the Caspian theater, or in African oil-rich states like Angola, Nigeria and Sudan.

In these early skirmishes of the 21st century, China reacted swiftly indeed. Even before the attacks of September 11, 2001, its leaders were formulating a response to what they saw as the reptilian encroachment of the West on the oil and gas lands of Central Asia, especially in the Caspian Sea region. To be specific, in June 2001, its leaders joined with Russia's to form the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. It's known as the SCO and that's an acronym you should memorize. It's going to be around for a while.

Back then, the SCO's junior members were, tellingly enough, the Stans, the energy-rich former SSRs of the Soviet Union - Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan - which the Bill Clinton administration and then the new George W Bush administration, run by those former energy men, had been eyeing covetously. The organization was to be a multi-layered economic and military regional cooperation society that, as both the Chinese and the Russians saw it, would function as a kind of security blanket around the upper rim of Afghanistan.

Iran is, of course, a crucial energy node of West Asia and that country's leaders, too, would prove no slouches when it came to the New Great Game. It needs at least $200 billion in foreign investment to truly modernize its fabulous oil and gas reserves - and thus sell much more to the West than US-imposed sanctions now allow.

No wonder Iran soon became a target in Washington. No wonder an air assault on that country remains the ultimate wet dream of assorted Likudniks as well as former vice president Dick ("Angler") Cheney and his neo-conservative chamberlains and comrades-in-arms. As seen by the elite from Tehran and Delhi to Beijing and Moscow, such a US attack, now likely off the radar screen until at least 2012, would be a war not only against Russia and China, but against the whole project of Asian integration that the SCO is coming to represent.

Meanwhile, as the Obama administration tries to sort out its Iranian, Afghan, and Central Asian policies, Beijing continues to dream of a secure, fast-flowing, energy version of the old Silk Road, extending from the Caspian Basin (the energy-rich Stans plus Iran and Russia) to Xinjiang province, its Far West.

The SCO has expanded its aims and scope since 2001. Today, Iran, India, and Pakistan enjoy "observer status" in an organization that increasingly aims to control and protect not just regional energy supplies, but Pipelineistan in every direction. This is, of course, the role the Washington ruling elite would like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to play across Eurasia. Given that Russia and China expect the SCO to play a similar role across Asia, clashes of various sorts are inevitable.

Ask any relevant expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing and he will tell you that the SCO should be understood as a historically unique alliance of five non-Western civilizations - Russian, Chinese, Muslim, Hindu, and Buddhist - and, because of that, capable of evolving into the basis for a collective security system in Eurasia. That's a thought sure to discomfort classic inside-the-Beltway global strategists like Dr Zbig and president George H W Bush's national security advisor Brent Scowcroft.

According to the view from Beijing, the rising world order of the 21st century will be significantly determined by a quadrangle of BRIC countries - for those of you by now collecting New Great Game acronyms, that stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China - plus the future Islamic triangle of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Add in a unified South America, no longer in thrall to Washington, and you have a global SCO-plus. On the drawing boards, at least, it's a high-octane dream.

The key to any of this is a continuing Sino-Russian entente cordiale.

Already in 1999, watching NATO and the United States aggressively expand into the distant Balkans, Beijing identified this new game for what it was: a developing energy war. And at stake were the oil and natural gas reserves of what Americans would soon be calling the "arc of instability," a vast span of lands extending from North Africa to the Chinese border.

No less important would be the routes pipelines would take in bringing the energy buried in those lands to the West. Where they would be built, the countries they would cross, would determine much in the world to come. And this was where the empire of US military bases (think, for instance, Camp Bondsteel in Kosovo) met Pipelineistan (represented, way back in 1999, by the AMBO pipeline).

AMBO, short for Albanian Macedonian Bulgarian Oil Corporation, an entity registered in the US, is building a $1.1 billion pipeline, aka "the Trans-Balkan", slated to be finished by 2011. It will bring Caspian oil to the West without taking it through either Russia or Iran. As a pipeline, AMBO fit well into a geopolitical strategy of creating a US-controlled energy-security grid that was first developed by president Bill Clinton's energy secretary Bill Richardson and later by Cheney.

Behind the idea of that "grid" lay a go-for-broke militarization of an energy corridor that would stretch from the Caspian Sea in Central Asia through a series of now independent former SSRs of the Soviet Union to Turkey, and from there into the Balkans (from thence onto Europe). It was meant to sabotage the larger energy plans of both Russia and Iran. AMBO itself would bring oil from the Caspian basin to a terminal in the former SSR of Georgia in the Caucasus, and then transport it by tanker through the Black Sea to the Bulgarian port of Burgas, where another pipeline would connect to Macedonia and then to the Albanian port of Vlora.

As for Camp Bondsteel, it was the "enduring" military base that Washington gained from the wars for the remains of Yugoslavia. It would be the largest overseas base the US had built since the Vietnam War. Halliburton's subsidiary Kellogg Brown & Root would, with the Army Corps of Engineers, put it up on 400 hectares of farmland near the Macedonian border in southern Kosovo.

Think of it as a user-friendly, five-star version of Guantanamo with perks for those stationed there that included Thai massage and loads of junk food. Bondsteel is the Balkan equivalent of a giant immobile aircraft carrier, capable of exercising surveillance not only over the Balkans but also over Turkey and the Black Sea region (considered in the neo-con-speak of the Bush years "the new interface" between the "Euro-Atlantic community" and the "Greater Middle East").

How could Russia, China, and Iran not interpret the war in Kosovo, then the invasion of Afghanistan (where Washington had previously tried to pair with the Taliban and encourage the building of another of those avoid-Iran, avoid-Russia pipelines), followed by the invasion of Iraq (that country of vast oil reserves), and finally the recent clash in Georgia (that crucial energy transportation junction) as straightforward wars for Pipelineistan?

Though seldom imagined this way in our mainstream media, the Russian and Chinese leaderships saw a stark "continuity" of policy stretching from Bill Clinton's humanitarian imperialism to Bush's "global war on terror". Blowback, as then Russian President Vladimir Putin himself warned publicly, was inevitable - but that's another magic-carpet story, another cave to enter another time.

If you want to understand Washington's version of Pipelineistan, you have to start with Mafia-ridden Georgia. Though its army was crushed in its recent war with Russia, Georgia remains crucial to Washington's energy policy in what, by now, has become a genuine arc of instability - in part because of a continuing obsession with cutting Iran out of the energy flow.

It was around the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, as I pointed out in my book Globalistan in 2007, that American policy congealed. Zbig Brzezinski himself flew into Baku in 1995 as an "energy consultant", less than four years after Azerbaijan became independent, and sold the idea to the Azerbaijani elite. The BTC was to run from the Sangachal Terminal, half-an-hour south of Baku, across neighboring Georgia to the Marine Terminal in the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean.

Now operational, that 1,767-kilometer-long, 44-meter-wide steel serpent straddles no less than six war zones, ongoing or potential: Nagorno-Karabakh (an Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan), Chechnya and Dagestan (both embattled regions of Russia), South Ossetia and Abkhazia (on which the 2008 Russia-Georgia war pivoted), and Turkish Kurdistan.

From a purely economic point of view, the BTC made no sense. A "BTK" pipeline, running from Baku through Tehran to Iran's Kharg Island, could have been built for, relatively speaking, next to nothing - and it would have had the added advantage of bypassing both mafia-corroded Georgia and wobbly Kurdish-populated Eastern Anatolia. That would have been the really cheap way to bring Caspian oil and gas to Europe.

The New Great Game ensured that that was not to be, and much followed from that decision. Even though Moscow never planned to occupy Georgia long-term in its 2008 war, or take over the BTC pipeline that now runs through its territory, Alfa Bank oil and gas analyst Konstantin Batunin pointed out the obvious: by briefly cutting off the BTC oil flow, Russian troops made it all too clear to global investors that Georgia wasn't a reliable energy transit country. In other words, the Russians made a mockery of Zbig's world.

For its part, Azerbaijan was, until recently, the real success story in the US version of Pipelineistan. Advised by Zbig, Bill Clinton literally "stole" Baku from Russia's "near abroad" by promoting the BTC and the wealth that would flow from it. Now, however, with the message of the Russia-Georgia War sinking in, Baku is again allowing itself to be seduced by Russia. To top it off, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev can't stand Georgia's brash President Mikhail Saakashvili. That's hardly surprising. After all, Saakashvili's rash military moves caused Azerbaijan to lose at least $500 million when the BTC was shut down during the war.

Russia's energy seduction blitzkrieg is focused like a laser on Central Asia as well. (We'll talk about it more in the next Pipelineistan installment.) It revolves around offering to buy Kazakh, Uzbek, and Turkmen gas at European prices instead of previous, much lower Russian prices. The Russians, in fact, have offered the same deal to the Azeris: so now, Baku is negotiating a deal involving more capacity for the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline, which makes its way to the Russian borders of the Black Sea, while considering pumping less oil for the BTC.

Obama needs to understand the dire implications of this. Less Azeri oil on the BTC - its full capacity is 1 million barrels a day, mostly shipped to Europe - means the pipeline may go broke, which is exactly what Russia wants.

In Central Asia, some of the biggest stakes revolve around the monster Kashagan oil field in "snow leopard" Kazakhstan, the absolute jewel in the Caspian crown with reserves of as many as 9 billion barrels. As usual in Pipelineistan, it all comes down to which routes will deliver Kashagan's oil to the world after production starts in 2013. This spells, of course, Liquid War. Wily Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev would like to use the Russian-controlled Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) to pump Kashagan crude to the Black Sea.

In this case, the Kazakhs hold all the cards. How oil will flow from Kashagan will decide whether the BTC - once hyped by Washington as the ultimate Western escape route from dependence on Persian Gulf oil - lives or dies.

Welcome, then, to Pipelineistan! Whether we like it or not, in good times and bad, it's a reasonable bet that we're all going to be Pipeline tourists. So, go with the flow. Learn the crucial acronyms, keep an eye out for what happens to all those US bases across the oil heartlands of the planet, watch where the pipelines are being built, and do your best to keep tabs on the next set of monster Chinese energy deals and fabulous coups by Russia's Gazprom.

And, while you're at it, consider this just the first postcard sent off from our tour of Pipelineistan. We'll be back (to slightly adapt a quote from Terminator). Think of this as a door opening onto a future in which what flows where and to whom may turn out to be the most important question on the planet.
(Asia Times Online)

Lo stesso articolo, tradotto in italiano, è disponibile al seguente link.